How much is survival worth?
 

This is a 10+R Turbo to the Sunday 215, there are about 60 people left, 22 qualifiers

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (8 handed) converter

SB (t9265)
BB (t14408)
UTG (t7365)
Hero (t9025)
MP1 (t10200)
MP2 (t18320)
CO (t8647)
Button (t14445)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3500</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls t2900, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t6925) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t5450 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t5450.

Turn: (t17825) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t17825) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t17825

These numbers arent quite right, there was 8800 in the pot after the flop and 19700 in the pot after we moved in.

So, I dont find anything wrong with my play, as soon as he checked on the flop, I instantly put him on a weak A and had no problem taking the coin flip, however, after it was done something dawned on me. My opponent checked the flop which leaves me with the ability to check behind and attempt to catch a card for free. I felt that if I checked behind that he would move in on the turn with his weak A putting me on a missed flop, even if my nut card came off the deck, so that means that i have a chance to see the turn for free. So I ran some numbers

If i push and get called on the flop, which i assumed would happen, i have 47.374% equity

which is 9332.68T$ in Equity

If i check behind and fold on the turn if i miss (assuming their is 100% chance my opponent pushes the turn no matter what card comes off) that puts me at

26.6% to win 19700
73.3% to fold with 5450

which is 9250T$ in Equity

So, the question is, how much is survival worth, obviously the check and fold guarantees me to stay in the tournament, even though i will have a very short stack, 1 double up and im right back to avg stack, so is survival at this stage, with 40 spots to go worth enough to make the check behind play the more preferred one, or is it just a tossup?

Re: How much is survival worth?
 

I fold that preflop, but since you played it, I think your line is okay.

Re: How much is survival worth?
 

I am push or fold preflop at this point.

As for the flop, it really depends on the table. If it is super tight I will fold and....wait, you were UG+1!!! Horrible preflop raise. Now you have to push, if you were on the button (where you should be to raise this hand) the you can consider check-folding and pushing next hand that is checked to you.

BAck to the MAJOR mistake of this hand.

You read the Villan for a weak Ace. Why? Must be a loose table. WHY WHY WHY WHY would you raise &gt;1/3 of your stack with QTs from UG+1 at a loose table????

If the table isnt loose, you cant put him on a weak ace. Cant have your cake and eat it to.

So, yes there is significant value to survival (which everyone knows), so you should be VERY aggressive when you play (push or fold with 8xBB)

Re: How much is survival worth?
 

I take the free card.

If he has a weak ace, you're behind in the hand. He's not folding it, so any bet is EV--.

QT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is an unlikely holding for you to have and you'll probably get paid for it if you make a hand, so I wouldn't worry about being able to get the chips in later.

Re: How much is survival worth?
 

This was John G's response to a similar question, and I think its one of the best things I have read on these forums.

[ QUOTE ]
One common misapplication of the survival concept I see people making is that they commit chips early in the hand, preflop and on the flop, only to then fold later in the hand when the pot odds say they should be committing the rest of their chips. This is not how the survival concept works. It is not surviving. It is not conserving chips. It is leaking them. The exact opposite of survival. The correct application of the survival concept in a tournament is to get out early, or follow through and play the hand how it was meant to be played. Congruency.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here is his whole post in context.

Regards,
Woodguy