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-   -   Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=404052)

HouseCalls 12-23-2005 01:24 PM

Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.60 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.30 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.30 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.30 BB

cold_cash 12-23-2005 01:29 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
I'd check the turn through.

milesdyson 12-23-2005 01:29 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
if you can't fold to that turn check raise, check behind turn and call a river bet or bet if he checks. it seems "weak" to do something like this with a strong hand, but

1. it allows him to improve to something if he has absolutely nothing. also players will very commonly take a shot at the river on this board if you check. this is huge.
2. it does not let him fold a very weak pair to the 4 flush board (if he has top pair he will probably call down and we miss a bet, though)
3. it never lets him check raise with teh ballz

even if you can fold to the check raise, i'm not positive betting is the best line here.

mxer7734 12-23-2005 02:24 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
From the flop on everything is standard, imo.

mxer7734 12-23-2005 02:27 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd check the turn through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we check the turn through? We have the 4th nut flush and have no reason to suspect we are behind here. You are probably right but I would just like some feedback as to why checking behind is better then betting.

MN_Mime 12-23-2005 02:31 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd check the turn through.

[/ QUOTE ]

A read might help, but I agree.

What is BB calling with on the flop that doesn't include a heart? A weaker hand might c/r the flop to push Hero off high cards. I want to show down, I'm pretty confident I've no fold equity, and I'm unsure of my hand's value. Checking through probably induces a bluff and if not, I'm going to get called if I value bet.

As played, the action is backwards for a set improving to a boat. I can't give credit for a higher flush and call down an unknown.

12-23-2005 02:35 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
Looks good to me imo

nomadtla 12-23-2005 02:40 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
I've been thinking about this one for a while. I think it's preflop that's bugging me more then anything. Against your average micro-player I think this hand is a bit weak to try and steal preflop, unless the blinds have been folding like crazy to my LP raises. I'd rather have high card strength if I'm going into what will probably be a headsup duel. With that said I move on.
The flop is an autobet.
The turn- I think betting this turn allows him to many options to get cheeky with us. I think since we have a hand with reasonable showdown strength I want to avoid the oportunity for him to put me in a precarious spot. Once we make our hand on the turn I don't mind if he puts us on a steal and tries to take a shot at us on the river cause I'll call one. Showing weakness on the turn makes it more likely he bluffs the river (thereby more necesary to call a river bet) but I don't wanna have to calldown a turn c/r. The turn bet doesn't fold anything that beats us or has many out to draw against us, I don't really think it folds many hands at all. The only hands it does fold are ones we have crushed that may take a shot at us on the river if we check the turn.
I say check through the turn. Call the river bet, or bet the river if he checks again.

MN_Mime 12-23-2005 02:43 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
I just addressed this while you were posting, but he's given you have two reasons.

1) Blind defense here is generally better than any 2 cards. Good aggressive players have looser defense standards as do some very bad players. Against an unknown, you're probably facing someone in between and there's a good chance you're against two offsuit broadway or a middle PP.

2) He called a monotone flop and did not raise. He hit part of the flop and did not feel compelled to protect his hand. A good player will raise pretty much any pair in this situation, so a draw seems likely. A lot of draws will raise this too on speculation that the PFR is suited (75% you have no flush draw) or on a PP (50% you have no flush draw and a slight chance you hit a set and your boat redraw is about the same odds). If he's confident you'll bet again and he can handle the action, he's going to smooth-call and let you lead again.

I think most of the time you're against two overcards here with one of them being a heart. I'll toss out QJo or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x as my guesses.

Agthorr 12-23-2005 03:00 PM

Re: Caught stealing - flopped a one card flush draw - how far to go?
 
I'd check behind on the turn, because it's too likely that BB called the flop bet with a high heart of his own, and I don't feel like paying two bets for it. If he doesn't have a heart, he's unlikely to improve to beat our hand, and he'll probably fold. There's a decent chance he'd also fold if he has a very low heart, though this is read-dependent.

It doesn't look like he's already got two pair or trips, so it's very unlikely the river card will change the outcome of this hand. One of you is drawing dead. Since you hold the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], it's hard for you to tell we're you're at. If villian has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he probably has a good idea of where he stands. If he's got J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he's probably less confident. Basically, he probably has more information than you, which is bad for you.

If you have him beat and check-behind on the turn, he may assume that you don't have a heart yourself. In that case, he may bet out or check-and-call, which earns you one more bet from him in the cases where he would have folded on the turn.

In summary, I like checking behind on the turn because:
<ul type="square">[*]It saves us two bets when we're way behind[*]It may earn us an extra bet when we're way ahead[/list]Unless you have a read that says that villian will call all the way down with junk even when it's really obvious that you have a flush. Then I'd say bet.


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