The continuing river saga
 

In my continuing effort to work on my river play, I give you this hand. Very first hand at the table, and none of the characters involved have any previous notes. What is your river play and why. I would really appreciate a reason. Thanks in advance.

-Jaran



Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero...

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Without reads, this is difficult. Preflop capper seems to have AK, but the presence of another caller makes the hand more strenuous. I would check here, it is the seemingly weak play, and I am willing to get flamed here, but a better hand will most likely call, and AK will fold.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

This is very read dependent. I'd check behind. I think you are most likely behind. The board was pretty drawless, so I can't figure out what hand UTG+1 would be staying in with that doesn't beat you. I also think you are only going to get called by hands that beat you.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

I think I check behind here

reasoning: without a read, we'll assume a thinking opponent. we're capped pf, so mp3 probably has something in the range of AA-JJ or AK-AJ (we'll give him some liberal non-pair requirments). He knows we capped as well, so he probably has us on the same range.

He doesn't go nuts on the flop, which could mean a couple of things. He has UI AK and is calling down, has AA-JJ and is trying to trap, or has KK-QQ and is scared that you have AA-KK.

He doesn't go nuts on the turn, so we can probably rule out QQ, JJ and stuff like KQ and AQ. If he had AA and was waiting to pop the turn, he didn't, so we can rule that out too.

His check on the river blank doesn't tell us a lot.

The reasonable hands I have left are a scared KK and a drawing AK. AK probably won't call the river, and KK has us beat. So I check behind.

I bet UTG+1 had a BDFD off the flop and figured the pot was too large to fold it. Other than that he could have just about anything

Re: The continuing river saga
 

MP3 capped but has quieted since. Think capping hands as maybe AA-TT, AKs (I know the book says QQ or something, but lots of folks may cap w/ JJ-TT - I don't but I've seen it done on Party .5/1). Now if he had AA-JJ, you'd think he'd have shown aggression somewhere here, as he may think he has the best hand, unless he assumes you have made a set. Same w/ A-Q suited, maybe show some aggression on the turn. Funny, I might think he had TT except that you have that, which makes it much less likely he does. So I'm thinking he has A-K. Can anyone see a reason for him to play AA-KK (or QQ-JJ) like this?
I find the passivity on UTG+1's part hard to read. I worry that he's got K-J or J-10 and didn't bet the flop for fear of being outkicked, but wants a showdown. However he could be playing pocket 9's or eights to showdown. These are the only hands I can think of that he would call with that you beat. MP3 probably won't call if he has A-K unimproved. So I think I would check behind. There don't seem to be enough hands you beat that will call you.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

I value bet because everyone is calling down and the five doesnt help anyone. If you check, you induce a bet then have to overcall, which I think is bad. So this is a case of if you are going to call a bet, bet it yourself.

No one agrees with me here, please explain why betting is bad (everyone only said why checking is good). Well, if you check, what do you do when someone bets?

Re: The continuing river saga
 

No reads?

I think I check this behind. I'm mostly concerned about UTG+1 here. What would he call down with like this? There are no draws out there on the flop, so he must have SOME kind of pair. Is he the type to not raise TP on this flop after the preflop action?

At any rate, I don't think you're getting called by anything you beat on this river. Check it behind.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Recheck my position.

-Jaran

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Hero is last to act. This is a straight-forward check. You're not going to get called by worse hands.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

[ QUOTE ]
I value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think you're ahead often enough in this spot to make this a bet for value? I think MP3 has AK, but I think UTG+1 may very well have a J.

It's extremely read-dependent though. If UTG+1 is the type to call down with any pair on the flop, then I bet this river. Otherwise, I check.