Gimme A Plan
 

BB is loose 57/13/0.9
Button is pretty decent 32/21/1.25

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero?

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

I am equally confused. I think normally I bet, and then call down. Maybe we can fold the river unimproved? I guess check/calling down may be correct too. I really am confused in these situations...

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

Its tough. I think I am check calling down. :/

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

Arguments for a bet:

- The pot is fairly big and you don't want to give a free card to gutshot (KQ/KJ/QJ), 5 out, 3 out hands (Kx) or (less significantly) 2 out hands (pocket pairs).

- If you are raised by button it is pretty obvious you are beaten. At that point you will be getting almost 11:1 if BB Folds and 13:1 if he calls with what will often have 2-5 outs (AQ is a very possible hand for button if he raises). Since you can't bet/fold, I guess this is sort of a negative for betting.



Arguments against betting:

- Sometimes it will go bet/raise after you check and you can fold.

- The A pairs AJ/AQ/AK which are 33 combos of preflop 3betting hands.

- If you know button will never bluff that ace, you can check/fold or check/call and fold river unimproved, depending on how many outs you give yourself and if BB calls.

If you could bet/fold I'd say it's a v. easy bet. Since you can't I think it's a little closer, but I'd still bet, especially if button's preflop 3betting hands includes like QJ/KJ/66/77.

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

the button's range is quite likely to include hands like that. i think you do have to bet for protection, then call if you get raised. but check/fold on the river after that is the way to go. you shouldn't see a worse hand after that action very often.

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

That was a good analysis of the hand.

A few questions for you and the forum.......

How often does a guy like that (32/21/1.25) 3-bet someone like me (23/18/2.5) with QJ and KJ?

Also, if he did happen to 3-bet those hands, considering his low aggression (1.25), how often would he bet/raise the turn behind me without an ace?

FWIW, I had a large sample of hands (~3000) on both opponents.

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

Forgive me if this is a stuipid question, and I realize its not what you are asking about.

Why aren't we betting into the Button on the flop, hoping he will raise to confront the BB with calling 2 cold? This makes it incorrect for the BB to call with two overcards to your pair, and does the most to protect your hand on the flop. I see a lot of 32/21 type players raise their own overcards here, hoping to fold out a small PP in the BB. Of course, we don't mind a PP smaller than your pair calling, but we want to protect the hand from better draws like overcards and gutshots. Leading into the PFR gives us a chance to do this on the flop. Checkraising the flop after the BB has called makes the pot so big you can't protect your hand on the turn.

Am I not thinking about this correctly?

When the A comes, I think you can lead again. You open-raised, and the A is a scare card. If the Button has a pair smaller than aces, there is a decent chance he'll fold. If he raises, I agree that you call, then check-fold the river unimproved.

Jim

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

[ QUOTE ]
the button's range is quite likely to include hands like that. i think you do have to bet for protection, then call if you get raised. but check/fold on the river after that is the way to go. you shouldn't see a worse hand after that action very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you said this...situations like this one always perplex me.

If I bet the turn and get raised, isn't the button somewhere like a 4-1 favorite to have at least an ace?

Also, some of those hands can leave me crippled (AQ, AT, A9s, TT, 99), so bet/calling is really tough here.

In this particular hand, I wound up checking....button bet and BB called. A rather sticky situation that I could have (possibly) avoided by betting. I'm still not sure if bet/calling &gt; bet/folding.

Thoughts?

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

[ QUOTE ]
Forgive me if this is a stuipid question, and I realize its not what you are asking about.

Why aren't we betting into the Button on the flop, hoping he will raise to confront the BB with calling 2 cold? This makes it incorrect for the BB to call with two overcards to your pair, and does the most to protect your hand on the flop. I see a lot of 32/21 type players raise their own overcards here, hoping to fold out a small PP in the BB. Of course, we don't mind a PP smaller than your pair calling, but we want to protect the hand from better draws like overcards and gutshots. Leading into the PFR gives us a chance to do this on the flop. Checkraising the flop after the BB has called makes the pot so big you can't protect your hand on the turn.

Am I not thinking about this correctly?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, two things:

1) The BB isn't that likely to have 2 overcards. He's a big fish and is much more likely to have a random T, 9, or PP.

2) Protecting our hand is a matter of perspective. BB isn't the biggest threat to us, the button is. There's no way to protect the hand against the button, so we might as well get value while we can.

The way I look at it, we have the best hand right now. If these players want to put -EV bets in on the flop in order to artificially bloat the pot so they have correct odds to call the turn, that's their problem. While opponents making correct calls on the turn may hurt us, the entire hand with be greater +EV if we view it from start to finish.

Re: Gimme A Plan
 

I don't think your outs will be counterfeited enough to bet/fold