AK no good?
 

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

This is a call down right?

Re: AK no good?
 

I probably bet/fold the turn.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

And when KJ or some other two pair slows down and just calls because they're worried about spades, what do you do?

EDIT: even if all of your outs are squeeky clean, you'll only get one bet out of him on the river a lot of the time, which reduces your implied odds. I think that means you don't have enough to draw to two pair or trips, and I certainly don't think you're ahead after the flop action against a "normal" opponent.

Re: AK no good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
And when KJ or some other two pair slows down and just calls because they're worried about spades, what do you do?

EDIT: even if all of your outs are squeeky clean, you'll only get one bet out of him on the river a lot of the time, which reduces your implied odds. I think that means you don't have enough to draw to two pair or trips, and I certainly don't think you're ahead after the flop action against a "normal" opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it beats check/folding because we may have him beat (not often), may have some fold equity and this way he will not only bet hands that beat us. I think we aren't good enough often to check/call down.

I think we can check/fold the river if he calls the turn, because I doubt he bets the river with much now that we have bet the turn.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

I think it's a calldown. We really want to see a showdown HU here. hope you didn't river another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AK no good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a calldown. We really want to see a showdown HU here. hope you didn't river another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

do we really wanna put 2 bets in here, are we good that often?

True

Re: AK no good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
We really want to see a showdown HU here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? What range are you putting him on?

Re: AK no good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We really want to see a showdown HU here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? What range are you putting him on?

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These pretty much represent the two thoughts going on in my mind at the time...

My 3-bet is pretty much telling him I have AK/KQ/AsJs/KJ so his cap is either KJ/J8, 2 spades, QT, T9, a set, or an oddly played AK/KQ (both of which I'd discount). Of these hands I'm thinking:

Behind:

KJ (6): Drawing to 3 outs.

J8 (0-9 depending on cc range): Drawing to 5 outs.

2 spades, probably something like AJ/AT/A9/QJ/QT/Q9/JT/J9 with AJ/AT less likely with no 3-bet (probably 8 on average, far more if we consider worse hands): Drawing dead.

T9 (0-16 depending on whether he'd cc T9o - or even T9s for that matter): Dead

Set: Dead, but KK/JJ are unlikely, so probably only 3 combinations to worry about.

Ahead:
QT - no spades (9): 8 outs
QT - one spade (6): 15 outs
KQ (8): 1/4 of the time he has a redraw to the flush.

Tied
AK (6): 1/3 of the time he has a redraw to the nut flush, the rest we split.

So really we're hoping for an overplayed KQ or QT. If we check and he bets, we can rule out QT since there was no purpose in capping the flop if he's not taking the free card (although there is a possibility that QT with one spade would bet the turn when checked to).

Re: AK no good?
 

I think his range is slightly larger than what you give him, I would put more J and more K hands in than you have.

I think I am probably slightly optimistic though.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We really want to see a showdown HU here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? What range are you putting him on?

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I haven't done the combinatrix, but I was just thinking that:
1) there's not many reasonable set combinations out there,
2) we've probably got 3 avg. outs against a 2p-type hand, and
3) the relatively small equity deficit to see the river is made up by the possibility of an overplayed OESD, king, or possible split.

Earlier I actually missed that the turn hit T9, but it still seems weak to dump this HU after a flop cap against an unknown. You'd rather c/f the turn here?