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-   -   33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403694)

 bobbycharles 12-22-2005 09:07 PM

33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

Stars \$13 Turbo satellite to Sunday Big Game
Blinds 25/50 8 players
I'm middle of the pack with approx \$1400
Table is fairly loose

Action folded to me in MP1 with 33.
I raise to \$T150. LAG chip leader raises to \$250.
Big Blind calls \$250.

Math guys help me out - with it costing me \$100 to see the flop, I have the right odds right? I'm guessing I'm up against a higher PP and AK....or maybe AK &amp; AQ. There's no way I'm a 5.5:1 dog here am I? Intuitively I know I'm a probably a dog, but mathematically, I really need work.

 Nick M 12-22-2005 09:10 PM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

I would have either limped or folded this.

 pineapple888 12-22-2005 09:12 PM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

This isn't a straight pot odds calculation because you have a hand that plays horribly multi-way unless you hit a set.

You are 7.5:1 to hit a set or better, so based strictly on pot odds, you can't call. BUT...

You have implied odds because you can probably win more chips from villains if you DO hit your set.

Calculating implied odds is not an exact science... but I call instantly.

 pineapple888 12-22-2005 09:13 PM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

[ QUOTE ]
I would have either limped or folded this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that too.

 xJMPx 12-22-2005 09:17 PM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

You are getting great odds to call but are they good enough? Your odds of making your set, which is what you'll need to continue with this hand post flop, is 7-1. So, you are not getting the pot odds you need. However, you might have the implied odds. For that, you need to specify how big are your opponents stacks and what is the likelyhood that they'll pay you off when your set hits.

So, I'd probably call at this point, but only proceed if you spike a 3 on the flop.

Now, as for your raise. Fold this preflop from MP with no one already in the pot.

Edit: Or, what pineapple wrote! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

 bobbycharles 12-22-2005 09:18 PM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

Ok, 7.5:1 to hit a set thanks. Do you have pokerstove to run 33 vs say any pair TT - AA or would the odds be the same?

My thought was I score big if I hit the set, otherwise it's check fold.

 pineapple888 12-22-2005 09:28 PM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, 7.5:1 to hit a set thanks. Do you have pokerstove to run 33 vs say any pair TT - AA or would the odds be the same?

My thought was I score big if I hit the set, otherwise it's check fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds are the same unless somebody else has a 3.

 xJMPx 12-23-2005 02:07 AM

Re: 33 in MP on a turbo Math help needed

You could run your 33 through poker stove against a couple of opponents and their ranges. But, I just know instinctively that your odds are real low. If your opponents don't have an overpair, they both certainly have over cards which means you could be up against as many as four over cards. This is not a good thing for your low pair. Also, you could very easily be up against an overpair, making things worse for your 33.

Therefore, you are playing this hand for set value only. "No set, no bet!". So, your odds of winning are 7.5-1 minus the times they hit a better hand than your set.

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