How close is it?
 

Final 2 tables, $55. We all have already $140, but the bigger money is obviously at the top (1: ~$3000, 2: $2000, 3: $1300 etc). I'm in a pretty healthy position somewhere among the top 5-6 or so.

MP1 is aggressive, but not a maniac. Not a first time he open-mini-raises with these blinds. CO is a complete calling stastion. Flat calls raises like crazy in any position, also post-flop. I don't know much about BB, although I guess he is pretty aggressive from the few previous hands I've seen him playing.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) converter

UTG (t28528)
MP1 (t11640)
MP2 (t48621)
CO (t73533)
Button (t6572)
Hero (t27430)
BB (t26462)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t4000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t4000, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t3000, BB calls t2000.

I wasn't crazy about calling here, but the pot was getting very big (~12,000 when it got to me, plus a good chance BB is coming along too) and I could afford it. I didn't have a real plan for post-flop, and I wasn't going to commit suicide if an A flops, so usualy I feel comfortable here. Anybody plays differently pf?

Flop: (t16700) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t6000</font>,

My idea here was to get a feel of how people like their hands. I was going to fold to a RR coming from MP1, which might represent an overpair here. I wasn't afraid of any of CO action. The only trouble could be BB.

<font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t22362</font>,

BB pushed here VERY fast. Therefore, I didn't put him on a real monster (set, straight), but probably something that might use some protection (I could be wrong, of course). Since he could have called PF with almost anything, I don't see any problem imagining him even with some X9 I beat (best case scenarion for me). But of course, 2p was the most probable holding (by far?), IMO, but certainly not alone there.

MP1 and CO folded. Action is on me and I'm getting about 1:2.8 on my money. A call?

Re: How close is it?
 

Looks like a call to me. Did you consider pushing preflop?

Re: How close is it?
 

I dont see MP1 having enough chips that you can get off your hand here if you flop an A. I really don't like the preflop call. Push if he's really lose, fold otherwise.

Unless I'm missing something here, your bet on the flop basically puts MP1 all-in.

As for the call, meh. either way. I think he has 910/9J enough to call.

Re: How close is it?
 

I dont like pushing preflop here. You are going to be [censored] if your called. You have pretty good odds to try and hit a flush draw or TPTK. I would probably just call.

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like pushing preflop here. You are going to be [censored] if your called.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can say that about any steal. The CO calling behind helps you because now MP1 isn't closing the action and may have to end up beating 2 hands instead of 1. Also, you're not worried about CO since he's calling w/ inferior hands anyway.

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Did you consider pushing preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I always consider pushing preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, I didn't feel it was good timing for pushing, for several reasons. I was playing rather aggressively, and needed to change gears a bit. Another thing is that I don't particularly like making moves like these with marginal aces, I might prefer complete trash (i.e, live cards) but it really depends on the feel of the situation. But maybe it was a good spot for pushing, after all.

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did you consider pushing preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I always consider pushing preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, I didn't feel it was good timing for pushing, for several reasons. I was playing rather aggressively, and needed to change gears a bit. Another thing is that I don't particularly like making moves like these with marginal aces, I might prefer complete trash (i.e, live cards) but it really depends on the feel of the situation. But maybe it was a good spot for pushing, after all.

[/ QUOTE ]

See the above response regarding the reasons I'd push. Also, something I didn't mention, there's 12k in that pot when it gets to you. You'd pick up 50% of your stack, which is always tempting to try to take w/out seeing a flop.

Re: How close is it?
 

Im not that worried about the CO.
I guess if MP is pretty loose, or his min-raises have been junk, pushing is fine. otherwise i think you will be dominated enough to make pushing suck. Cause he isn't going to be folding AT or AJ or most PP's

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Unless I'm missing something here, your bet on the flop basically puts MP1 all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. You can pretty much ignore my comments about folding to a MP1 raise. And you are basically correct that I'm in a tough spot to fold it if an ace flops because of stack sizes. Not completely impossible, though, but not far from it.

I agree about the PF call being problematic. I really don't like it too much myself.

Re: How close is it?
 

given MP1s stack I think checking the flop has to be right.

Re: How close is it?
 

You mean check-calling MP1?

Re: How close is it?
 

right. unless heavy action from the other guys makes it a fold.

Re: How close is it?
 

Not a bad plan. I believe making this bet I made is superior to checking if MP1's stack is deeper, but since it isn't, I probably achieve more by checking. I wonder where the cut-off is.

Re: How close is it?
 

its a good question, probably whatever number lets there be 2 decision points in the betting instead of one.....problem is that number differs from player to player.

Re: How close is it?
 

What about pushing on the flop? Any benefit to that?

Re: How close is it?
 

the problem is then the preflop raiser only calls with hands that beat you and always folds hands you are beating.

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
given MP1s stack I think checking the flop has to be right.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this line here... I'd be checking with the intention to call MP1's desperation push if BB and CO didn't show strength.

I wonder what BB's action would've been on the flop if you had checked...

Given BB's action as you posted, I have a feeling he either has a 9 of some kind, a PP (maybe an overpair... 77-JJ or so) or maybe even JT... this is a tough spot [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: How close is it?
 

Results:

I call, BB showed 85o and I didn't improved.

I was actually getting the right odds to call even if I somehow knew he was on exactly that hand.

pokenum -h ad 9d - 8s 5c -- 9s 8d 5h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 8d 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad 9d 288 29.09 687 69.39 15 1.52 0.298
8s 5c 687 69.39 288 29.09 15 1.52 0.702

If I think that sets are somewhat less probable (because of my read of his push) and can throw in some X9's into his range, this is not such a close call actually.

My other actions in the hand are debatable, though.

Re: How close is it?
 

In this kind of situations, one usually begins analyzing all the hands one could beat and often convincing oneself that other players are on a "move".
However, most of the time we end staring at a hand that beats our own.
I am not saying that a fold is correct here, I am just saying that when there are only 2 tables left, people don't make "moves" that often and we have to learn to give raises the respect they deserve.

William [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
when there are only 2 tables left, people don't make "moves" that often and we have to learn to give raises the respect they deserve.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a very important thing to remember (regardless of the specific details of this hand). something that in the heat of the moment many players, myself included, seem to forget, occasionaly.

Welcome back William!

Re: How close is it?
 

I like a preflop push, but I'm mainly posting to show you wanting a trash hand instead of A9s is wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't particularly like making moves like these with marginal aces, I might prefer complete trash (i.e, live cards) but it really depends on the feel of the situation

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume you get called by:
AA-88, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo

This not far off from the worst possible range of hands to get called by for A9s.

A9s has 32.977% equity
76s (a very strong "live" hand) has 30.452% equity
22 has 34.311% equity.
72o (the definition of complete trash) has 21.359% equity

Against AA-99, AKs-A9s, AKo-ATo (aka the worst possible range of hands for A9s to get called by, albeit a bit unrealistic)
A9s has 31.085% equity
76s has 33.878% equity
22 has 39.891% equity
72o has 24.719% equity

I think this shows that compared to hands that can't expect to be called by a worse hand, A9s is a pretty good hand to push with.

Re: How close is it?
 

thanks for the post, Justin. Definately alters my thinking. I've been undervaluing this hand, over-valuing others.

CSC

Re: How close is it?
 

I also want to point in that after you factor in occasional freak calls by hands like A5s and KJ, that only makes A9s stronger than the range of hands I was comparing it to.

Re: How close is it?
 

Good post ZJ, and nice analysis.

When I said "complete trash" I was exaggerating a bit. My intuition (plus checking all sorts of similar situations in the past) was that I would prefer a hand like 76s over A9s, like your 2nd analysis suggests. With a very strong read of your opponent/s tendencies, particularly the relation between their raising and calling standards, a better decision can be made.

It is interesting though that these results show that PPs (like 22) will do relatively good in such situations, that's because bigger part of the "calling range" includes overs, which are not ahead of 22 and the like. In other words, I would somewhat prefer making a move like pushing here with a trash pair like 22, than with A9s.

BTW, where does 94s stand? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is interesting though that these results show that PPs (like 22) will do relatively good in such situations

[/ QUOTE ]

If you take my first range of hands, and add 77 and 66, A9s now has 36.119% equity, and 22 has 32.925% equity. Don't get too excited about 22, because every extra pair that calls significantly hurts it.

Also, I should point out that even though A9s has better equity when 77 and 66 call, that does NOT mean that A9s wants 77 and 66 to call. Quite the opposite is true.

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't get too excited about 22, because every extra pair that calls significantly hurts it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very true. However, I think that people will much more easily throw away all kinds of mid PPs to a reraise all in (if it puts their whole stack in danger and the odds are not great), and will have much tougher time throwing AK, AQ for instance, in many common situation. This tendency really helps the EV of trash pairs here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I should point out that even though A9s has better equity when 77 and 66 call, that does NOT mean that A9s wants 77 and 66 to call. Quite the opposite is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course. Any hand that calls and is not dominated by A9s really better be in the muck, for the sake of the EV of pushing here. Am I wrong to assume that you want people to also muck their KQ, KJ and the like?

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I wrong to assume that you want people to also muck their KQ, KJ and the like?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this situation, you are definately right. I want the uncontested pot, not an all-in as a slight favorite.

Re: How close is it?
 

How big an edge from a call do you think its beneficial not to get in exchange for a fold in situations like this?

Re: How close is it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How big an edge from a call do you think its beneficial not to get in exchange for a fold in situations like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously this depends on a ton of factors that are currently unknown to us.

Re: How close is it?
 

no kidding, i meant the question in a general discussion enducing kind of way.