Re: How close is it?
 

I like a preflop push, but I'm mainly posting to show you wanting a trash hand instead of A9s is wrong.

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I don't particularly like making moves like these with marginal aces, I might prefer complete trash (i.e, live cards) but it really depends on the feel of the situation

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Let's assume you get called by:
AA-88, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo

This not far off from the worst possible range of hands to get called by for A9s.

A9s has 32.977% equity
76s (a very strong "live" hand) has 30.452% equity
22 has 34.311% equity.
72o (the definition of complete trash) has 21.359% equity

Against AA-99, AKs-A9s, AKo-ATo (aka the worst possible range of hands for A9s to get called by, albeit a bit unrealistic)
A9s has 31.085% equity
76s has 33.878% equity
22 has 39.891% equity
72o has 24.719% equity

I think this shows that compared to hands that can't expect to be called by a worse hand, A9s is a pretty good hand to push with.

Re: How close is it?
 

thanks for the post, Justin. Definately alters my thinking. I've been undervaluing this hand, over-valuing others.

CSC

Re: How close is it?
 

I also want to point in that after you factor in occasional freak calls by hands like A5s and KJ, that only makes A9s stronger than the range of hands I was comparing it to.

Re: How close is it?
 

Good post ZJ, and nice analysis.

When I said "complete trash" I was exaggerating a bit. My intuition (plus checking all sorts of similar situations in the past) was that I would prefer a hand like 76s over A9s, like your 2nd analysis suggests. With a very strong read of your opponent/s tendencies, particularly the relation between their raising and calling standards, a better decision can be made.

It is interesting though that these results show that PPs (like 22) will do relatively good in such situations, that's because bigger part of the "calling range" includes overs, which are not ahead of 22 and the like. In other words, I would somewhat prefer making a move like pushing here with a trash pair like 22, than with A9s.

BTW, where does 94s stand? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: How close is it?
 

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It is interesting though that these results show that PPs (like 22) will do relatively good in such situations

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If you take my first range of hands, and add 77 and 66, A9s now has 36.119% equity, and 22 has 32.925% equity. Don't get too excited about 22, because every extra pair that calls significantly hurts it.

Also, I should point out that even though A9s has better equity when 77 and 66 call, that does NOT mean that A9s wants 77 and 66 to call. Quite the opposite is true.

Re: How close is it?
 

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Don't get too excited about 22, because every extra pair that calls significantly hurts it.

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That's very true. However, I think that people will much more easily throw away all kinds of mid PPs to a reraise all in (if it puts their whole stack in danger and the odds are not great), and will have much tougher time throwing AK, AQ for instance, in many common situation. This tendency really helps the EV of trash pairs here.

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Also, I should point out that even though A9s has better equity when 77 and 66 call, that does NOT mean that A9s wants 77 and 66 to call. Quite the opposite is true.

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Of course. Any hand that calls and is not dominated by A9s really better be in the muck, for the sake of the EV of pushing here. Am I wrong to assume that you want people to also muck their KQ, KJ and the like?

Re: How close is it?
 

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Am I wrong to assume that you want people to also muck their KQ, KJ and the like?

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In this situation, you are definately right. I want the uncontested pot, not an all-in as a slight favorite.

Re: How close is it?
 

How big an edge from a call do you think its beneficial not to get in exchange for a fold in situations like this?

Re: How close is it?
 

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How big an edge from a call do you think its beneficial not to get in exchange for a fold in situations like this?

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Obviously this depends on a ton of factors that are currently unknown to us.

Re: How close is it?
 

no kidding, i meant the question in a general discussion enducing kind of way.