How would would play this?
 

Live 2/5 NL game. I have been played against grey haired guy with falcons hat several times and have noticed a betting pattern. I have seen he make several preflop raise to 75 the only times I seen hands was with JJ and 10 10. I have seen him make 4X big bland raises with AA and KK.

I have 99 in early position and make my standard 3X big blind raise to 15 and falcons hat guy comes over top with 75 everyone folds to me. I know he probably has JJ, TT or maybe QQ. We each have about 500-600 in chips.

My thoughts were to call the bet and if any A, K, Q came on the flop I would move all in.
I figured that with the 3 bluff cards and the 9 I was better than even money to win.

Unfortunately the flop came with all rags and had to check. Falcon guy bet 300 and I folded.

Re: How would would play this?
 

how deep were your stacks?

Re: How would would play this?
 

Between 500-600 he said. He didn't have the implied odds and due to your read of his hands, this is a fold pre-flop. I don't think that you get the extra equity because if it comes three overs for you, then he might have set.

Re: How would would play this?
 

The only problem I see is this is a pre-flop re-raise to $75. Situation not fitting your observation.

I know a few players who send off betting tells that scream JJ or TT. They can be goldmines somedays.

Assuming that both of you are well stacked, I'm probably going to fold because even though I have set value, I'll be hard to get him to payoff if my set comes with an overcard to the J. Had I put him on KK or AA I think I could play.

Kinda counter intuitive? Any experts have a comment on that type of play?

Re: How would would play this?
 

sorry about missing stack sizes.

anyways, even though you saw him overbet with JJ-TT and do regular raises with AA/KK, you have not seen what he does with AK, AQ right?

couldn't you forseeably run in to trouble with your bluff if he plays AK, AQ like JJ-TT ?

Re: How would would play this?
 

Falcon guy will make standard raise with drawing hands like AK, AQ. I have seen him overbet like this about 6 times and the two times I saw, he had TT and JJ. I have played 100's of hands against him and I was certain it was not AK or AQ.

Re: How would would play this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have played 100's of hands against him and I was certain it was not AK or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow...And i thought i read guys pretty well...You're saying that you could put a guy on exactly 10-10 or j-j with absolutely no possiblity of him having anything else based on two prior showdowns? If so, i like your play, and Please, stay away from my games sir!

Re: How would would play this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only problem I see is this is a pre-flop re-raise to $75. Situation not fitting your observation.

I know a few players who send off betting tells that scream JJ or TT. They can be goldmines somedays.

Assuming that both of you are well stacked, I'm probably going to fold because even though I have set value, I'll be hard to get him to payoff if my set comes with an overcard to the J. Had I put him on KK or AA I think I could play.

Kinda counter intuitive? Any experts have a comment on that type of play?

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes perfect sense to me - you'de have to hit your set AND not have any scare cards on the flop.

I'd fold this and move on.

Besides, calling another $60 when the stacks are fairly shallow and you're out of position just doesn't sound like a good proposition to me.

Re: How would would play this?
 

"My thoughts were to call the bet and if any A, K, Q came on the flop I would move all in.
I figured that with the 3 bluff cards and the 9 I was better than even money to win."

I like the read that you made. I noticed a couple of things about the hand that might be worth considering:
1. If the flop comes to your liking, do you think an all-in is necessary? Could you just pick up the pot with a reasonable sized bet ?
2. Another option may have been to reraise preflop, if you think he would fold QQ-JJ to a reraise. You could make that play with any 2 cards if you knew what he had and how much to bet:). Do you think he would fold QQ, JJ or 1010 to a reraise?