Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

About 50 hands on villan. Appears to be a typicl TAG. Toughest decision is on river. I think the raise is a must, but the cap was a tough call. I decided he was holding AQ and went for it. Was a little scared of AA, KK or maybe JTs. Thoughts on any street would be appreciated also.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.83 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 12.83 BB

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set
 

fixed [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] havent posted since the changed it to "texas holdem" too busy grinding, not enough studies.

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

I put him on an overplayed AK. AA and KK probably would have capped pre-flop. AQ is unlikely since you hold two Queens. JTs is a possibilty, not so however if he really is a TAG.

All in all, I like the river cap, I think you are good more than 50% here.

You also played all the other streets well.

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

Is 99 not a possiblity for him as well?

Anyway, I think your table image is just as important as his here. Does he think you are a lag?

From his perspective, how can he 3-bet the river after you raise? You certainly would have bet the turn if you had AK, AQ or 99, so that puts you on a big pocket pair.

And that means he thinks you probably have a set, and he still 3-bets you.

Therefore, although I like the river raise, I don't think you should cap this.

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

in retrospect 99 is a possibility, didnt think of it at the time. I ca't imagine my table image being anything but TAG. And like you mentioned, his three be means he isnt afraid of me and made me think long and ahrd on the river.

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

Well, I see it differently. His 3-bet might just mean that he didn't think alot and just got carried away with a nice two pair. Happens all the time.

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I see it differently. His 3-bet might just mean that he didn't think alot and just got carried away with a nice two pair. Happens all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. A lot of times, the guy will instantly click the reraise button before even really thinking about the raise. I am certainly guilty of that, especially against weak opponents.

Re: Tricky river on PP 15/30 after spiking a set, (fixed conversion)
 

Id say youre about 50/50 to win this. possible hands could be:

A. that you are beating. AK, AQ, KQ.
B: That you are losing to: AA, KK, JT

Looks about equal. Id probably just call the three bet on the river.