Re: SB folded n/m
 

Not to mention there is only one case of 55 and 66, 3 cases of JJ, but 6 each of AA and KK. I know AA and KK dont always limp here, but does 55 and 66? I know JJ doesnt always. AJ isnt in the discussion either?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

I guess basically we are saying that UTG has to put us on a likely 2 pair here so he is very likely to muck all 1 pair hands? Is that the issue?

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

What did SB do?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
Those stacks are too big to stick it in there on the flop in an unraised pot. You'd be putting in the 4th bet; even real bad players know that means something huge. If you manage to get it allin on the flop you're either way behind or flipping a coin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't give credit to SB for a big hand, so I'm not worried about him.

I agree that Hero's fourth bet is a bright neon sign of massive strength.

But I still wrestle with the notion that you're quite likely to be ahead against Villain's reasonable range. Such a range for an aggressive player (see the KJ example above) might be AhKh, AhQh, AhTh, KhQh, Ah6h, AJ, AA-JJ, 55, 66, 65: in that spot, you're 63:36 in pot equity terms.

There's 600 in the middle, you're facing a 480 bet, and pertinent players each have 2900 behind.

As I think about it more, I think I like a call better, with the intention of betting a non-heart turn.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those stacks are too big to stick it in there on the flop in an unraised pot. You'd be putting in the 4th bet; even real bad players know that means something huge. If you manage to get it allin on the flop you're either way behind or flipping a coin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't give credit to SB for a big hand, so I'm not worried about him.

I agree that Hero's fourth bet is a bright neon sign of massive strength.

But I still wrestle with the notion that you're quite likely to be ahead against Villain's reasonable range. Such a range for an aggressive player (see the KJ example above) might be AhKh, AhQh, AhTh, KhQh, Ah6h, AJ, AA-JJ, 55, 66, 65: in that spot, you're 63:36 in pot equity terms.

There's 600 in the middle, you're facing a 480 bet, and pertinent players each have 2900 behind.

As I think about it more, I think I like a call better, with the intention of betting a non-heart turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that given the (reasonable) hand range above, hero is now ahead in pot equity terms after a blank turn.

Also, are you accounting for the fact that there are fewer possible comboes of 56, 55, and 66 because of hero's holding?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

Well, he's gotta put us on two pair+ (or at least most would). And if he had AJ, wouldnt he just call the 200, because only better hands will call if he makes it 700 to go? so as UTG with AA or AJ, reraising is terrible as you wont get action from anything you beat. Much better to call and see what the turn brings, or fold outright.

SO that's the thought process behind the fact that he 'must' have us beat. On the other hand, its very unlikely as a 25/16 that he has JJ and limped (raising KJs from ep in the earlier hand), he doesnt have J5 or J6, and theres only one combo each of 55 and 66.

So looking at it one way, he 'must' have us beat (or a huge draw), but on the other hand he is highly unlikely to have us beat based on card combinations and his preflop tendencies. All this stuff makes it a tough decision IMO, and not as close as Yeti and Flawless say.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, he's gotta put us on two pair+ (or at least most would). And if he had AJ, wouldnt he just call the 200, because only better hands will call if he makes it 700 to go? so as UTG with AA or AJ, reraising is terrible as you wont get action from anything you beat. Much better to call and see what the turn brings, or fold outright.

[/ QUOTE ]

your analysis is good but it's not accounting for one thing. Human error.

The right way to play something and the way it's played often do not coincide, so it's still very possible (although less feasible then say 66; it's just something that should still in his hand range) he's going crazy with either AJ or AA.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, are you accounting for the fact that there are fewer possible comboes of 56, 55, and 66 because of hero's holding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sheesh, I hope to hell so. I'm using Andrew Prock's PokerStove software: you could knock me over with a feather if it doesn't take account of opponents' cards.

This spot is an example of the old win-a-small-one-lose-a-big-one situation, obv.