HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

blinds 100/200

if villian has been paying enough attention, he should know that i've been playing tight-aggressive poker- i've definitely been paying attention to him. villian likes to limp in on the SB with any kind of hand and my plan was to bluff raise my BB to keep him honest. the last couple of hands i have just checked to the flop with mostly BS.

hero 7805 after posting 200 (K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
villian 5295 after limping extra 100 in SB (hand: ?)

i raise to 600 and villian calls.

flop comes: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

i check.

villian bets all-in 4895.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

You were checking planning to CR all-in, right? Tough spot... I'd fold, but that might be wrong...

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You were checking planning to CR all-in, right? Tough spot... I'd fold, but that might be wrong...

[/ QUOTE ]

CR the flop yes, but not all-in. i felt villian would make a stab bet at the pot- say 600; i did'nt think he would bet all-in.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

No telling what he has here, but most of the time he'll have a pair, and you'll be behind. If he's the all-in on a small pot type of guy, you can find a better spot.

i called
 

reason: i did'nt put villian on a very good hand, preflop or on the flop. his all-in bet told me that he wanted to win the pot right there and did'nt want to be called. this did'nt smell like a set, the nut flush draw, or TPTK. if he had any kind of hand, why overbet so much all-in? if he has Ace x clubs, why not kick behind and set a trap if another club falls? even AA-JJ does'nt seem likely. i like my chances with 9 club outs.

comments.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

If the blinds were 400/800-600/1200, I'd take my presumed 12 outs, gamble and call. Here, I would fold. Having said that, I would have also taken the opportunity (with small blinds and a big stack) to open on the flop. Another T1000 bet on the flop will still leave you plenty. I understand you planned to CR, but how many times do we see (or do ourselves) a PFraised-checked-flop pushed by PFraise-caller? Keep the pressure on and lead out IMO.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

You lead at the pot on the flop, that's what you do. Checking just puts you in this place where you have to make a hard decision. Make him have the hard decision!

Whether I call depends on the player. You probably have 12 outs twice but against some you are way ahead and some others you are way behind, so it depends.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You lead at the pot on the flop, that's what you do. Checking just puts you in this place where you have to make a hard decision. Make him have the hard decision!

Whether I call depends on the player. You probably have 12 outs twice but against some you are way ahead and some others you are way behind, so it depends.

[/ QUOTE ]

so, based on his bet all-in and my call, do you think i am way behind or close? based on my read, i don't think i'm way ahead, i think i'm close.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

[just butting in here....]

i would say you are most certainly behind here to probably just a pair. i would guess that you have 2x12 clean outs. reasonable call to seal the deal here [opinions in my OP still stand].

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

[ QUOTE ]

[just butting in here....]

i would say you are most certainly behind here to probably just a pair. i would guess that you have 2x12 clean outs. reasonable call to seal the deal here [opinions in my OP still stand].

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't think that villian is capable of all-in bluffing this flop?
say i had raised with A Ko instead, i have obviously messed my flop right? let's say that villian has A Ko, following my check on the flop. if i don't have a [decent] pair or a flush draw, then he may think a hand like A Ko is good. betting all-in means that i'm only calling with a hand that is already ahead of his or has a decent chance of improving.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

...a reasonable assumption. But in my experience the 'jumping on the push button with both feet' reaction on a rag flop after reluctantly (we'll assume) calling your PF raise - most always equals top/middle pair.

But to further explore your point.......

I WOULD NOT CONSIDER CALLING HIS ALL-IN IF I DIDN'T HAVE THE 12 OUTS

...if I was CERTAIN he was bluffing, and I KNEW I had top overcards, I still wouldn't go anywhere near this call (again, without the flush draw). I'd actually probably fold a 9-out OSD in this case as well -- keeping in mind we are still talking about you checking the flop....

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if villian has been paying enough attention,

[/ QUOTE ]
. .. ..lol. ..now THAT'S funny . . . . . .

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

he might have a lower flush draw or a straight draw, I take the gamble and call. Eyeballing it, pot odds look good with ~12 avg outs considering you could have the best hand.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

You are not getting odds so do not call.

I would have bet at the flop though and given myself odds to call a push, but if you have been tag this is a good place for a continuation bet, if your k is live you arent too far behind/ahead.

Re: i called
 

You are not getting odds, this is not a good call.

Poker 101

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

Listen, I have already posted 3x in this threat but I think calling this heads up is completely suicidal. Yes you MAY be 50% to win right here, but with the blinds as small as they are and your (presumed) superiority over your opponent you can find a better spot than this.

If you thought your opponent was vastly superior to you at poker and that your (at best) 50/50 chance here was the best chance you had, then calling here is not a bad idea.

However, you have the chip lead and HU your chip stack directly relates to your equity to win the tournament. You have more than 50% of the chips in play (I do not wish to do the exact math) so you should (potentially) have a better chance to win the tournament than the current proposition infront of you.

Also, you are not getting good odds at all. You are getting like 1.1:1 which is unacceptable (imo) given you calling off ~75% of your stack on a 50% draw HU.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

If you are going to c/r here I think dumping your stack is correct.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

With the blinds this low I'd definately fold here. You miss your flush = villian having you out chipped 8k in chips. If they were higher, I think this really depends on villian...

Does he play back at you when you autobet flops? does he fold a lot? or is he really aggressive or passive? In other words, are you able to use your bigger stack to grind him
down?

there's no need to go for the knockout punch when a less risky approach will work.

most everyone is saying to to lead into the flop
 

...as opposed to checking.

say villian still reraises all-in anyway, do you fold or do you call? IMO, this move shows alot more strength than all-inning after a check on the flop.

Re: i called
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are not getting odds, this is not a good call.

Poker 101

[/ QUOTE ]

what kind of odds do i need to make this call? if you missed your flop, what kind of hand would you make this call with [blinds already taken into consideration]?

Re: i called
 

You've likely got 12 outs and there's even a decent chance he's just on a draw. You might even be ahead. I'll call here.

Oh, and yes, I lead out on the flop too. And I'm calling a push after leading out.

Re: most everyone is saying to to lead into the flop
 

You could still fold -if- he moves in (depends how much you pushed with on the flop). Point is, you can push on the flop and hope to pick up the pot right there and still have a chance to hit it if he calls and a club falls.

Results
 

the guy turned up 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (TPLK) which supported my belief that he had a hand that was'nt really all that good and did'nt want to be called with.

i had 12 outs (3 Kings and 9 diamonds).

turn is a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. i now have 14 outs (3 Kings, 2 sevens, and 9 diamonds).

river is the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Results
 

Diamonds??? Huh??? Didn't you have a club draw that hit on the river?

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Diamonds??? Huh??? Didn't you have a club draw that hit on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and your point?

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

When I say its player dependent I mean it. Not knowing who you are playing against I have no idea if you are ahead or behind specifically. Against typical player you are behind to a pair.

Re: most everyone is saying to to lead into the flop
 

If you make a pot sized bet on the flop you can't fold to an all in cause the odds are too good. It shows more strength but remember your lead is gonna win this hand right then 3/4 of the time or more.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Diamonds??? Huh??? Didn't you have a club draw that hit on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and your point?

[/ QUOTE ]

well read your post and you tell me.

Not a big deal, but I didn't understand how a club draw turned into a diamond draw. forget it.

Re: HU: chipleader Kc 7c What\'s your move?
 

Easy call. I doubt he would play a hand stronger than top pair this way. Only hand you are really worried about is higher flush draw. Then again he would probably reraise you preflop with a suited ace. You easily have the pot odds against his hand range so CALL.