AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

UTG+1 is 22/0/.8 after 9 hands (worthless)
CO is 52/8/1 after 80 hands

When CO raised the flop I decided I would just call, if the turn brought a *safe* card, my plan was to c/r the CO.

did I make a mistake not 3-betting the flop? I considered it but thought the turn c/r would be a better way to protect my hand.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero folds.

River: (10.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

I think you played it fine. We might be ahead of the CO, but when UTG+1 donks the turn after a spade hits against the flop raiser, I think I'm finished here.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

3-bet the flop. No matter what you do you are not getting UTG+1 to fold his flush draw.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

3-bet the flop.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

Look at CO stats. Im not folding the turn.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

I don't think the CO is the one we have to worry about. UTG+1 was passive PF and on the flop. When he wakes up on the turn and bets into the flop raiser with a 3-flush on board, we should be concerned.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't do this because 3-betting doesn't help me *that* much, the FD isn't going to fold. I feel good that I'm ahead of CO here. There are a TON of cards I don't want to see on the turn, any [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K,J,T,9,8,7,6,5 are all potentially bad.

If something like the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls on the turn, it will probably get checked to the PF raiser, I c/r and face UTG+1 and MP1 with 2 big bets, now if they call I make more money when my hand is probably good and my equity went up. This just seems like the perfect situation to use the turn raise to protect my hand.

I thought this hand was quite vulnerable.

If I do 3-bet the flop, it's called down the line, how do I proceed on the turn when that spade falls? bet/fold then?

I'm eager to learn, please point out to me where/why my thinking is incorrect.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

i probably donk the turn, pot is plenty big enough

the turn cards i'm worried about are Js, Ts, 9s. but i would still bet on those cards

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

wtf was that a misclick??

trey the flop

lead turn and call down if raised

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

btw the checkraise plan makes a bit of sense, but it shouldnt involve folding for 1BB if the wrong person bets.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

Do people really see situations in which hero's turn fold is a bad play? Granted, we don't have good numbers, but we've got a guy who suffered through a 3 bet flop, and he's going to lead the turn certainly knowing that somebody's calling him down based on previous action.

How often does this guy NOT have a flush?

(Granted, he could have 2 pair or a set, but I don't think I'd want to bet on it...

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

Hey,

Good post.
The question I have on this play is not the 3 bet issue...though I would. Rather, it is the fold issue. Can we honestly say that we are MORE THAN ~89% SURE that we are beaten on the turn or MORE THAN ~91% SURE that we are beaten on the river? Yes, there is no question that UTG+1 waking up is worrisome, but to that level? I also agree that CO is just most likely not a factor.

At this level of play, there are just too many people who play the turn and river incorrectly that I have to believe we are going to win this hand more than 1 in ~10 times. I think we have to at least check / call it down here.

Hight blood sugar gets you in 20 years, low blood sugar gets you today.
Fammy

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hight blood sugar gets you in 20 years, low blood sugar gets you today.
Fammy

[/ QUOTE ]

you really are intending to type this out after every post arent you....


anyway, to the point: vil having a set is no better than vil having a flush draw, either way we are outless. (altho i think vil comes to life with a set on the flop)

regardless, against 2P we have hidden outs. against Qx, Asx, Ksx, 9T, JsJ and TsT we are well ahead. there is no way we can be that sure to fold the turn.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

I think 3 bets on flop are obligatory.
First of all you may force to fold different gutghot draws, middle pairs and backdoor flush draws, you also may force to fold hands which include K.
At second, when you just call CO raise, UTG+1 and MP1 have 1:15.5 to call, so they are right to call with any imaginable hand including 54 and 22s, when they are right, that means you are wrong. You should RAISE getting them 1:8 in which case they are not getting sufficient odds for hands such as Q2, 89, KT, etc.

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws - results
 

Going to post the results here, I know they don't matter in regards to how I played the hand.

CO had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG+1 had 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: AQs UTG, makes TP on a board with draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel good that I'm ahead of CO here. There are a TON of cards I don't want to see on the turn, any [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K,J,T,9,8,7,6,5 are all potentially bad.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why you should be 3-betting this flop. Even if you know UTG has a flush draw, you still have an equity edge because you are almost certainly ahead of the cutoff here.

In the scenario you describe, if I 3-bet the flop, lead the turn, and UTG+1 wakes up and raises, I'm probably folding, though it's close.