Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Party 5-10 NL.

Context--the villain in this hand seems solid... I haven't seen him get out of line, though he accumulated most of his chips before I arrived at the table, and I have never played with him before.

I am interested in advice on my play on the turn, in particular what do do after he comes back over the top. Obviously I thought I had the best hand when I re-raised, but when he comes back, I have to really question whether it is worth putting the rest of my stack in to find out whether I am ahead or way behind. He limped in early position, so I have to seriously consider whether he had a pocket pair (and hit) or maybe even 56s... He also could have AA.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (9 handed) converter

Button ($1392)
SB (fish)/ ($210.25)
BB ($2519)
UTG ($1000)
UTG+1 (villain)/ ($2238.75)
MP1 ($1679)
Hero ($1506)
MP3 ($503)
CO ($1004)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 (villain)/ calls $10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $10, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (fish)/ completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">fish bets $10</font>, BB folds, villain calls $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($70) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">fish bets $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">villain raises to $75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $250</font>, fish folds, <font color="#CC3333">villain raises to $2218.75 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

Results later

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Why did you call the flop?

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Because I was closing the action for $10 and figured in the unlikely event a 4 came, I could win a big pot from the villain. (unfortunately, I did not foresee the action on the turn proceeding as it did)

I don't make a habit of continuing past the flop when I play a small PP and miss, but in this case I did.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Id personally have him on nuts....I muck. The min reraise is always something to take not of on the turn.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

You make a super longshot call on the flop. you were hunting for 2 outs. why in the world did you call on this flop if you werent willing to play your hand to the end once you hit the 2 outer? your play makes absolutely no sense at all. there is no excuse not to pay this off if you made that call on the flop

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

I agree with everyone else, I fold the flop. You did have a backdoor flush draw, but that might not have even been good either.

When someone re-raises me like this, I can just hear Brunson's words in my head: "Never go broke in an unraised pot."

There's at least a decent chance you have the best hand with your set, but it wouldn't be hard for someone to have a better set or 5-6 for the straight. Villian's smallish turn bet is just screaming for a raise too.

I'm pretty tight in unraised pots, so I'd probably lay this down, kicking and screaming as the chips go to villian's stack.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

I am more liberal with my calls than the average 2+2er (I just see too many posts suggesting folding middle set, KK pf etc) but even on this one I am with the masses. Fold.

He isn't 4-betting with a flush draw so he has 56, a higher set, or 2pr and I am not calling off my stack here on hopes that he has that unimproved 2pr.


As for the flop call. You are 47:2 to hit so you need to believe that you will make at least $175 on average when you hit your 4. (sometimes you will hit your 4 and sometimes you will win unimproved or with a rr straight or flush)


-Steve

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am more liberal with my calls than the average 2+2er (I just see too many posts suggesting folding middle set, KK pf etc) but even on this one I am with the masses. Fold.

He isn't 4-betting with a flush draw so he has 56, a higher set, or 2pr and I am not calling off my stack here on hopes that he has that unimproved 2pr.


As for the flop call. You are 47:2 to hit so you need to believe that you will make at least $175 on average when you hit your 4. (sometimes you will hit your 4 and sometimes you will win unimproved or with a rr straight or flush)


-Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. I think 56 is most likely, as a solid player is not slowplaying on this flop OOP.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why in the world did you call on this flop if you werent willing to play your hand to the end once you hit the 2 outer? your play makes absolutely no sense at all. there is no excuse not to pay this off if you made that call on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is pretty short-sighted to have such a "stick-to-your-guns" approach that you never change your plan, even after additional information presents itself. Obviously I planned on getting all my chips in if I hit, but after I saw bet, tiny-raise, re-raise, re-re-raise all-in after the micro raise, I gave the other guy credit for a big hand.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

im sorry, i misread your board. i didnt even realize that your set could have dealt off a straight. my bad, i had a brain fart. that does change everything, because it completes a potential draw. in this case, you never, ever should have called on the flop. if your all your "outs" can complete a better hand from a potential draw for somebody else, its pretty much a rule--do not take a longshot draw. you never should have called on the flop. even if you had say, 33 and hitting yout 2 outs would make you the 4th nuts, its a super questoinable call on the flop. in this case, its much worse. you should never ever have called on the flop.