I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 5 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero (FOLD or RAISE)?

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

Let's assume, villain only 3-bets preflop with AK, AA, KK, QQ or JJ. With the AJ in my hand and the turn showing the K, there are 15 possibilities for AK, AA or KK and 9 possibilities for QQ or JJ. So in 38% of all cases, he has to fear the King. And lets assume, hero bets the turn with every of his holdings, regardsless the king.

A raise costs hero 2 BB to win 5.25 BB. If my maths is correct, than this is +EV, if villain folds more than 73% of the time with QQ or JJ. Is this realistic?

I'm playing poker now for six month and have already lost approx. 1200$. But, hey, as everybody here, I love this game and don't want to abandon it only because I'm losing. With my job, I can cover my losses, and other hobbies are also expensive. Every evening at the table gives me deep feelings, the one or the other way. And I think, poker also needs some enthusiasts like me, who do not care too much about their losses. I will never abandon the hope, that one day I will also become a decent player. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

Fold on the flop.

Re: I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

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Let's assume, villain only 3-bets preflop with AK, AA, KK, QQ or JJ.

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[ QUOTE ]
Fold on the flop.

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Re: I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

It seems like you answered your own question with your analysis of Villian.

You have no reason to stay on past the flop, much less worrying about whether you should bluff the turn against a hand that you're already know that has you beat.

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Fold the flop.

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Re: I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

Freed,

I believe there is a good chance you are overthinking the game. At levels like 1/2, 2/4 and 3/6 the game is more about learning a preflop strategy, discipline and basic hand reading skills. Not very romantic, I agree. I think this is why the 2+2 books you read will stress scorekeeping in poker as who has more chips at the end of the session.

Maybe you could benefit from a drop to 1/2 if you are struggling. Don't chase losses. Exercise some patience and your enthusiasm for the game will help make you a winner.

Re: I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

This flop is a fold.

Re: I\'m a real enthusiast!
 

As everyone has posted so far, you're way overthinking this hand. Even if all 6 of your outs are good (which is dubious at best) you need ~8:1 to continue. In a bigger multiway pot with backdoor draws, there might be more to discuss here, but...

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Fold the flop.

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Solution
 

In fact, hero folds and villain opts to show QQ.

I know (now), that folding the flop would have been the right decision. In fact, I made a mistake. (Which is undoubtedly the reason, why my play is not profitable.) However, nobody answered my question on the turn:

After a mistake on the flop, was it a mistake to fold on the turn or would a bluff-raise have been an even bigger mistake?

Re: Solution
 

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After a mistake on the flop, was it a mistake to fold on the turn or would a bluff-raise have been an even bigger mistake?

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Hero is crushed. The turn fold is mandatory.

You estimate bluff-raising to be profitable only "if villain folds more than 73% of the time with QQ or JJ." That's a sizeable gamble to win a small pot. An observant villain might call to snap off semi-bluffs; a loose villain might call to try to hit their set; a stubborn villain might call just to show down the big pair. Remember your whole plan hinges on a strong made hand folding for one more bet on the turn HU. Desperation move.

Fold here and pick a better spot.

Re: Solution
 

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a sizeable gamble to win a small pot.

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Big leak.