Value bet this river?
 

Villian is 36/8.5 after 70 hands and seems pretty passive/bad but not horrible.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) converter

BB ($427.10)
UTG ($239)
MP ($1348.55)
CO ($250)
Button ($400)
Hero ($616.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $4, CO calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $20, CO calls $20.

Flop: ($76) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, MP calls $60, CO folds.

Turn: ($196) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $90</font>, MP calls $90.

River: ($376) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

What's my plan for the river? Comments on all streets welcome.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

check/call the river, try to induce a bluff and I'd probably pot the turn

Re: Value bet this river?
 

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check/call the river, try to induce a bluff

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Do you expect a passive player to bluff here?

Re: Value bet this river?
 

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check/call the river, try to induce a bluff

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Do you expect a passive player to bluff here?

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No but I don't expect him to call with any hand you beat.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

That turn bet is pretty sick.

I'm thinking I might block the river... if he's sorta loose/passive you can hope for AJ/etc to call another $150 or something. The Q is a pretty terrible river card though.

Checking and calling a small bet is also an option. If he's passive he probably won't launch a big bluff and you can make the laydown if he bets big (but I'd feel better about it if the turn bet had been more like $150).

I guess it depends on the specifics of your read... 8.5% preflop raise doesn't seem all that passive IMO. It really seems like he would have raised by now if he had you beat, so it would really help to know a bit more about him to help put him on a range of hands.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

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That turn bet is pretty sick.

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Yea, as soon as i did it, i knew it was too small. Oops.

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The Q is a pretty terrible river card though.

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I loved this river card because no draw got there and i really don't put villian on AQ (since he didn't raise PF)


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8.5% preflop raise doesn't seem all that passive IMO. It really seems like he would have raised by now if he had you beat, so it would really help to know a bit more about him to help put him on a range of hands.

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I don't have much more info on villian since i haven't been paying that close attention. He had like a 1 aggressiveness factor but i'm not exactly sure how to utilize that stat.

I'm pretty sure i'm ahead on the river here so i guess the real question here is do i check and hope to induce a bluff from a possible diamond draw or do i make a 1/2 pot bet and hope to get paid off by a weaker Ace. If i bet the river and get raised i feel pretty confident about laying the hand down.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

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No but I don't expect him to call with any hand you beat.


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I can't say that i agree with this. If a weak Ace is going to call the turn, what reason do i have to believe the he will fold to a 1/2 pot bet on the river?

Re: Value bet this river?
 

I bet 145 on this turn. River is an easy value bet, any ace pays you off, even easier if you said your read was villain didnt have AQ

Re: Value bet this river?
 

i like a check call here or a smallish fake blocking bet and see if he would bluff raise me.
i would also bet more on the turn

Re: Value bet this river?
 

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or a smallish fake blocking bet and see if he would bluff raise me.

[/ QUOTE ] nonono

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i would also bet more on the turn

[/ QUOTE ] I agree. And if he was like, really passive, I'd go with a half pot bet on the river, but as he's just quite passive, I'll give him a shot at bluffing.