Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I'm going to post an extensive Bellagio report on my blog (http://shaniaconline.blogspot.com/) hopefully today, but in the meantime I wanted to flash off a hand.

Some players I can't get the best of, or maybe I'm a donk. But I guess the question I'm posing here is who, if anyone, is willing to go broke with this hand in this manner?

I've played with Carlos Mortensen before and he totally owns me. I always think he's bluffing but he always seems to have it. This is level 1 of the 3K Bellagio tournament, maybe 20 minutes in. My table is tough and I start the day playing very relaxed. My VPIP for the first 2 rounds of action is exactly zero (0) and Carlos has been playing, or seemingly so, every other hand, usually for a raise. Sometimes he takes it down with agression post flop, sometimes he folds after being the agressor and getting played back at.

Blinds 25/50. I have 5900 carlos has 4900 and he raises to 125 in 3rd position and gets 3 callers. I have 2 cards (62o) in the BB and call. Flop is A72 all spades and I bet 250 for whatever reason. Carlos calls and everyone else folds.

Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand and fire out 550. Carlos eyes me suspiciously and makes the minimum raise to 1100. I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out. I make it 1800 to go, 1250 more to Carlos. Now Carlos pushes.

What do you all think so far? What do you think Carlos has? Is he pushing with a hand that I can beat? Do you call?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think he probably has ace here. I can't fold this to a super aggressive player like Mortensen, who isn't afraid to stick it all in the middle on a large bluff. Pocket aces and pocket sevens are a definite possibility, but I'll go broke and make him show me that.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I don't think you can put the third raise in without playing for your stack so I'm calling. Pot is huge, and you dont have to be right all the time to make the call right (plus isnt Carlos known for playing super fast?). Also, I'm a fan of checking the turn here for a number of reasons. More likely to get paid off by 1 paired hands, and save my stack against house/flush. If I hadn't done that I'd call the minraise and keep it small. If a 4th spade comes, so be it.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

62o, OOP, in a multiway pot, agaisnt tough, aggressive players? I hate the call w/ 100xbb stacks.

Given how it played out, I would have to call. It's hard to put you on a duece, and he might have A7 or A w/ the K or Q of spades.

I might consider calling the turn, and firing out a large river bet on a non spade river.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I'm thinking you're ahead. These hands that are beating you:

AA: I don't see someone raising 2 1/2 x BB with AA - which just enocurages callers with the pot odds.

77: Hmmmm. Nah. Hmmmmmm. Maybe.

A2: Nah. Hmmmmm. Nah.

Small spade connectors: Maybe. But why push with baby flush?

KQ spades: makes sense.

Why would he push the turn with any of those made hands? He wants to keep you in the hand with those. I think you're ahead.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think I puke and kick it in, but I'm weak like that, but Carlos is much a much different style than I'm use to.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking you're ahead. These hands that are beating you:

AA: I don't see someone raising 2 1/2 x BB with AA - which just enocurages callers with the pot odds.

77: Hmmmm. Nah. Hmmmmmm. Maybe.

A2: Nah. Hmmmmm. Nah.

Small spade connectors: Maybe. But why push with baby flush?

KQ spades: makes sense.

Why would he push the turn with any of those made hands? He wants to keep you in the hand with those. I think you're ahead.

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Aren't any 2 spades ahead?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

Yeah. But why would Carlos push?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think it's reasonable that he could have any-2 spades, an ace/spade combo, and sometimes pure air.

I think the biggest decision in the hand is what to do after he mini-raises.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

If he has air how often do you think he will fire again on the river? Against that range, call and lead the river seems best. It will be hard for him to raise with a flush on the river, and hard for him to fold some A/spade combos that don't get there.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I know how ESPN and the Travel Channel says Carlos play, but I don't know how he plays in reality. I would fold this pretty quickly against certain players, and insta call against others. Considering I have no read on Carlos it's hard to say, you obviously could judge his strength better. Against an unknown, jesus, I'd vomit on the table, and fold I think. But the thing is Mortensen knows he's Mortensen, and knows you know that, so that makes him not an unknown, even if you know nothing about his play in reality (which you do, I don't though). Complicated enough?

I think you're 3 bet is pretty horrible on the turn. I'm either check calling/ leading a river, or just calling his raise. I think 3 betting then folding to a raise is just weird, and makes not very much sense. You aren't really "charging him" with your small raise on the turn, just sort of giving him another chance to outplay you

Oh and the numbers are definitely off here:
[ QUOTE ]
Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand and fire out 550. Carlos eyes me suspiciously and makes the minimum raise to 1100. I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out. I make it 1800 to go, 1250 more to Carlos. Now Carlos pushes.


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Nice hand to post overall though.

ps... fold preeeeeflop

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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I don't think you can put the third raise in without playing for your stack so I'm calling. Pot is huge, and you dont have to be right all the time to make the call right (plus isnt Carlos known for playing super fast?). Also, I'm a fan of checking the turn here for a number of reasons. More likely to get paid off by 1 paired hands, and save my stack against house/flush. If I hadn't done that I'd call the minraise and keep it small. If a 4th spade comes, so be it.

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Hey, how about that...I agree with MLG

If I bust, at least it makes a good story to tell around the water cooler. I mean, a 3K tourney at the Bellagio...Me...bust in 20 muinutes...sounds about right.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

Boy I hate that PF call, and I don't really hate many of those. I hate the flop bet too, but whatever.

I am either checkraising or calling that raise, because the one thing I don't want is exactly what happened. You can't lay this down but you have to really hate your hand.

I dunno, you brought this on yourself over the last two streets (what are you getting on the push, 2:1? With 10-ish outs vs. a flush if you're behind...yeah) so you may as well shrug and go broke. But wow, I really hate this hand.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

You called a pre-flop raise w/ 6-2o, raised the flop w/ bottom pair. Now the poker Gods seem saying "Let's give a hand that busts him."

As for Carlos, I'm thinking has a medium pair.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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Boy I hate that PF call, and I don't really hate many of those. I hate the flop bet too, but whatever.

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I'll call with any-2 cards getting 7-1 that early that deep. Flop bet is donkeyfied for sure, but not really a big deal.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

who, if anyone, is willing to go broke with this hand in this manner?


Reverse positions. He is.


I've played with Carlos Mortensen before and he totally owns me

If you know this, he knows this.

Is he pushing with a hand that I can beat?

I think he's pushing with a hand you already beat at least 1/3 of the time. The question is, of the 2/3 he's ahead, how often are you drawing dead?

Not often enough to fold, I think.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking you're ahead. These hands that are beating you:


77: Hmmmm. Nah. Hmmmmmm. Maybe.

A2: Nah. Hmmmmm. Nah.

Small spade connectors: Maybe. But why push with baby flush?

KQ spades: makes sense.

Why would he push the turn with any of those made hands? He wants to keep you in the hand with those. I think you're ahead.

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I like 77. Carlos is pushing on the turn because he doesn't want to get sucked out by a spade on the river.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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Boy I hate that PF call, and I don't really hate many of those. I hate the flop bet too, but whatever.

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I'll call with any-2 cards getting 7-1 that early that deep. Flop bet is donkeyfied for sure, but not really a big deal.

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I'd really like to hear a justification for that. You are out of position for every street, your hand can't make a real hand. As is evidenced by this post, even when you make a "monster" you are going to be hesitant.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking you're ahead. These hands that are beating you:


77: Hmmmm. Nah. Hmmmmmm. Maybe.

A2: Nah. Hmmmmm. Nah.

Small spade connectors: Maybe. But why push with baby flush?

KQ spades: makes sense.

Why would he push the turn with any of those made hands? He wants to keep you in the hand with those. I think you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like 77. Carlos is pushing on the turn because he doesn't want to get sucked out by a spade on the river.

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And all this time I thought a full house beat a flush...

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

[ QUOTE ]



And all this time I thought a full house beat a flush...

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Oops.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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I'd really like to hear a justification for that. You are out of position for every street, your hand can't make a real hand. As is evidenced by this post, even when you make a "monster" you are going to be hesitant.

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Well, if I had all the right answers I wouldn't be posting.

It might be unjustifiable, a leak or whathaveyou, but I don't mind putting in 1% of my stack to see a flop, even with a hand that's pure trash.

I obviously CAN make a real hand, even if doing so will put me in a difficult spot sometimes. If I was afraid of difficult spots, I would have stayed home.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

On second thought, I still think he has 77. The pot's big enough. Why wait for the river.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I guess, but my main point is that I wonder if this actually would be EV over the long term... and im guessing no.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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On second thought, I still think he has 77. The pot's big enough. Why wait for the river.

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You think he has 77 when he min-raises my turn bet or when he pushes after I re-raise. Yeah, 77 is firmly within his range after he pushes. How about when he mini-raises?

Couple other thoughts I'd like to insert here:

My table was not easy. There were 9 players and no spots (besides me, maybe). I was content to play tight and avoid annoying confrontations, but it's not like I could sit back and wait for someone to donate their stack to me, either.

Also, with the premise that after I've re-raised his turn min-raise I'm pot-commited (and he know that), does anyone think I gave Carlos a tough-enough decision with some Ace/middle pair/spade combo?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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Also, with the premise that after I've re-raised his turn min-raise I'm pot-commited (and he know that), does anyone think I gave Carlos a tough-enough decision with some Ace/middle pair/spade combo

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Yeah, between pushing and calling.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

Mmm...good point.

Man I suck.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

didnt you cash in this event?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

No, this hand is hot off the presses.

I've had some near-successes this trip, which will be detailed in the forthcoming blog entry.

It always tortures me when I look back on hands where I made mistakes, and those mistakes reveal themselves in new ways the more I think about the hand.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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My table was not easy. There were 9 players and no spots (besides me, maybe). I was content to play tight and avoid annoying confrontations, but it's not like I could sit back and wait for someone to donate their stack to me, either.

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Okay fine, but then you call the raise with 62o OOP? It's not like I care about the 75 chips, I care about what happens after you do call (basically, this.)

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Also, with the premise that after I've re-raised his turn min-raise I'm pot-commited (and he know that), does anyone think I gave Carlos a tough-enough decision with some Ace/middle pair/spade combo?

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If he is the type of guy that you can put on 'ace + spade', not to mention air, *now*, that's clearly a no.

Normal people...sure, that's a tough call with something like AxJs, but that's not a huge part of his range and I doubt he calls the flop/minraises the turn with those (doesn't make too much sense because I think that's either a clear calldown or a flop/turn big raise.) I think he's more likely to have a flush, higher trips or nothing much at all (if I have 77 I just call the turn 3 bet). The point is, if you're going to give him 'a tough decision' with trips no kicker on a board that sucks this much after he's shown that much strength, don't be surprised when it backfires.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

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On second thought, I still think he has 77. The pot's big enough. Why wait for the river.

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You think he has 77 when he min-raises my turn bet or when he pushes after I re-raise. Yeah, 77 is firmly within his range after he pushes. How about when he mini-raises?



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I'm currently reading Phil Gordon's Little Green Poker. He says pros are at their most dangerous when they raise a small amount.

BTW

I like your blog. Bookmarked it.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

Note that whatever I know on C.M. is from TV and hearsay (in other words, I know nothing).

You lead out at the monochrome A high flop flop, 4 handed and out of position, bottom pair with no flush draw doesn't exactly jump to mind as your holding at this point.

Then on the turn you bet only 1/3rd of the pot (as opposed to half the pot on the flop).

Add these things together, and IMO, Mortensen's must assume at this point that you hated that turn card, and thus greatly increases the chances that he is making a play for the pot here with air or with an A that he is now more confident in.

I seriously doubt he made a boat on the turn, as he would probably give you the chance to improve on the river and pay him off.

I probably call.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

what would you do if you were Carlos here and had a baby flush and was facing that turn three bet? We can agree a full boat and a big flush jams the pot right? What about a medium flush, like Q high? It seems like Shaniac's three bet is almost like a confused semi bluff. If I were Carlos I would expect to either be way ahead or be crushed if the money goes in unless I have a full house or maybe the nut flush. IMO, the idea of Carlos having an Ace here when he shoves is pretty ridiculous lol.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I have no credentials to offer any input, but thank you for posting this. Very interesting hand indeed.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

what happened?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

The mini raise just reeks of strength to me. No?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

[ QUOTE ]


Blinds 25/50. I have 5900 carlos has 4900 and he raises to 125 in 3rd position and gets 3 callers. I have 2 cards (62o) in the BB and call. Flop is A72 all spades and I bet 250 for whatever reason. Carlos calls and everyone else folds.



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This part of the hand is interesting.

You called his bet. Three spades flop including the Ace. You bet, but Carlos doesn't raise you back, he calls. IMO he's sitting there w/ 3 7s, but still can't feel strong. So the call makes sense. The the board pairs on the turn, and now he can take you to school.

I still say he has 77 in the hole.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

I think Carlos has the flush to miniraise and push the turn.

Hero's most likely holding is a 2, of the 100 hands with a 2, 12 are full houses, and the other 90 have 9 outs. A few of them might have flush outs that are clean. I think Carlos betting makes sense for a medium flush. I suppose he could play a FH this fast, but 77,AA,a2s are much less likely.

I wouldn't be surprised if he got a read off you when he miniraised.

I don't like the flop bet because 2pr or a set of 2 is not likely to win a big pot on this board, but likely to lose a big one.
Same thing for the turn bet/raise.

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

Shaniac this hand is disgusting.

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 25/50. I have 5900 carlos has 4900 and he raises to 125 in 3rd position and gets 3 callers. I have 2 cards (62o) in the BB and call. Flop is A72 all spades and I bet 250 for whatever reason. Carlos calls and everyone else folds.


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Your lead is really puzzling. Even more puzzling is your justification for it. There are good reasons to lead here, but I would lead for more, and I would also have a reason.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand and fire out 550. Carlos eyes me suspiciously and makes the minimum raise to 1100. I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out. I make it 1800 to go, 1250 more to Carlos. Now Carlos pushes.

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Jesus christ. You lead for like 1/3-1/4 the pot. So he's already getting immediate odds to draw to a spade, which shows that your logic to 'protect your hand' is so flawed. If you wanted to protect your hand you wouldnt offer a spade draw pretty damn close to immediate odds, woudl you?

He min raises you. At this point, the idea you are 'protecting' your hand is completely dumb because the bottom line is the cost of 'protecting' your hand here is your stack because any raise is going to commit you to the pot & u will likely have the odds to draw to a boat if he puts in a turn reraise. Additionally, you arent maximizing your value versus hands that can pay you off. Carlos may have a weird combo draw or a bluff, but reraising here all but limits him to having better hands (for the most part). Maybe you will see some weird A(Ks) type of hand if you get it all in on the turn, but good luck to you with that.

It's nice to protect a made hand, but get your priorities straight. It's way more important to get value out of your hands. Plus realize that when he makes this turn raise, a large chunk of the time you are drawing, and a smaller chunk of the time you might be drawing to 1 out. He's offering you immediate odds to fill up, which is a +EV situation... If you are ahead you are risking a spade losing you the pot... but if you are behind you are being offered a great spot with his turn minraise!

It sounds like this great player is inside your head and you arent thinking straight. Or maybe you just need to start putting together more solid thought processes than:

"I bet 250 for whatever reason"

"Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand "

" I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out"

-Jason

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

What if it turns out that Carlos had a baby flush, and shoved vs the turn three bet after the board paired? How would it change you guys' perception of the hand then?

Re: Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K
 

one shouldn't be results oriented... instead of looking at results you should put him on a range of hands and re-evaluate after each decision. After reraising I think you should call. I probably would have called the min raise and led the river if a non scare card came, basically what a lot of others have said