Two Plus Two Older Archives - Why doesn't he fear that card?

What I'm referring to is when you get donked on the turn (or river, but it happens more on the turn I think) when a big card comes off. It is extra confusing if you were the PF aggressor (making it more likely that your opponent should fear that you just paired), and the flop action indicated your foe hit the flop.

This hand is from a short handed table, but it illustrates a poker concept that's applicable to full ring as well.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets...

PF: I'm going to raise because I'm in position and have generally been outplaying and taking pots away from the SB, especially HU. My PF play here against this particular player was pretty much standard.

Flop: I actually get a pretty nice flop for my hand - I clearly bet when he checks, but I think the value of the hand here is that he may think I have UI overs, in which case he may call down with a 7. But he check raises? So he liked the flop - maybe he also has a ten.

Turn: Now the turn is an ace and he bets? If he only had a ten, he would fear the ace. Especially since I was the PF raiser. Yet he bets right into it. Why? In my mind there are three possibilities:

1) There is a small chance that he bluff check raised the flop and is following through on the turn. I think this chance is very small, especially with the A on the turn. I also don't believe this player to be capable of bluffing a player showing strength (more generally, I don't think that your typical LL opponenet is capable of such an aggressive play).

2) There is some chance he has an ace, cr-ed the flop thinking I missed, and now naturally leads when he spikes TP. Here's the problem with that line of thought: in order for him to only complete from the SB HU with Ax, I must believe he is a weak player (note I'm saying a weak player, not a player with a weak hand), BUT, in order to check raise the flop when you miss with an ace, I think you must be a strong player (again, strong player, not a player with a strong hand). So we have a paradox - I can't reconcile his PF and flop actions because I think he's a weak player through and through. And again, this is what I think of most LL players. Therefore I do not think there is much chance that my opponent has Ax in this situation.

3) Since I do not think either of the above two explanations very likely, that leaves me with only one conclusion: he does not fear the ace. There are only two reasons not to fear the ace (or an overcard in general): it improves your hand, or it doesn't really hurt your hand.

I discussed the possibility that it helped his hand in 2, and again, I don't think that's what is occurring here.

But how does it not hurt his hand? If I make aces on the turn and his hand is still ahead of it, then the ace doesn't hurt him too much. It's pretty easy to see that on this board only two pair and a set are ahead of aces. If my hand improved to aces, I may have some outs against him now, but he's still way way ahead. Also, this is at least partially offset by the fact that making aces may cause me to call down (that is, pay off). You could even argue that he should go for another check raise if he thinks I have an ace.

So I put him on a set or two pair. I am drawing dead against a set. Against two pair (that is, a flopped two pair), I have 6-9 outs, depending on his exact hand.

So is the turn a call or not? I think it's close, but I lean towards calling. I expect to collect at least one extra big bet if I hit the river, but probably two since I expect him to bet any river (though I could also lose two if he has a set - I will not call a 3 bet). And of course there is always a small chance he checks the river, is completely bluffing, etc.

I called the turn and folded the river UI (the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

Fortunately, he opted to show...T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a flopped two pair.

Here's my summary:
Why does't he fear that big card?
Because he can still beat TP.

CAVEAT: of course, at higher limits, against tricky players, or perpetual bluffs, you can throw all this out the winder. These are simply my thoughts on playing against your average, horrible LL player.