Heads Up SNG standard D
 

If standard deviation is 6.9 in 10+1 buy-in heads up SNG (60% ITM), what is the risk of ruin and minimum bankroll requirement?

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

You need to account for EV in there.
Then fire up google, and look for kelly betting.

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

Kelly% = .13

What's the BR requirement given this and the other info I've given in this thread?

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

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minimum bankroll requirement

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Whats your risk tolerence?

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

1% possibility of going broke.

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

60% win% + 10% vig tells you the ev.

Kelly doesn't work here since we can't adjust the buyin amount.

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

So what info are needed to get the BR requirement with only 1% or less chance of going broke in this case?

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

Kelly still "works", improvising poker players have been using it for years. Bill Chin even wrote an article for the 2+2 mag on the topic not too long ago.

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

Look for the Sileo/Chen/Weideman/mel3brown formula. BruceZ has mentioned it several times, and even posted his derivation here some time ago.

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

You need about 183 buy-ins if you win .6 buy-ins per tournament. Your risk tolerance pegs you at about .4 Kelly.
The formulas are old and were discovered by the blackjack theory people in the 90's. See our paper at bjmath.com. Copies of my 2+2 mag article are available on request.

Bill Chin

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

You can make sure not overbetting, but you can't adjust your 'bet size' (ie tourney buyin).

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

So you are saying he needs $1800 to play $10 sit n go's?
Is it just me or does that sound like a fricking huge bank roll. I thought 30/40 buyins was plenty. I guess I could be way off...........

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

bankroll=-ln(r)v/(2E) where v=variance, E=expectation, and r=risk of ruin.
You bankroll is your total wealth (including future earnings) minus expenses, not your "gambling bank", or "what you can afford to lose"
You can Kelly bet by changing buy-ins, moving up or down according to bankroll.

Btw E=.6 is um, optimistic.

Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
 

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but you can't adjust your 'bet size' (ie tourney buyin).

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Why wouldn't you? Actually, w/ the ability to multi-table proportional betting is quite feasible, since you have the ability to increment much more precisely (compared to a one-tabler).

Of course the general hassle makes this unpractical for the large majority. You're familiar w/ BJ, correct? I suggest looking into TH's "mini-bank" concept, seems to be (IMO) the best way of approaching the problem, short of CE anyway.

My .02 bb's.

Clarification
 

The game is HEADS UP (that is, one on one) sit-n-go where our hero wins 60% of his matches and loses 40% of his matches. This translates into an ROI of 9% per match given that the buy-in is 10+1 or 20+2 or 50+5. What is the smallest number of buy-ins that hero must have in his bankroll so that he will have a risk of ruin of ZERO?

Re: Clarification
 

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What is the smallest number of buy-ins that hero must have in his bankroll so that he will have a risk of ruin of ZERO?

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Infinite, clearly.

Re: Clarification
 

How about 1% risk of ruin?

Re: Clarification
 

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How about 1% risk of ruin?

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Assuming a net return of $.99 and an SD of $6.9, about $111, so like 10 buy-ins.

<edit:> Provisos: You do not vary in stakes after any swings, you do not withdraw funds from the bankroll, and your goal is to at least triple your stake.

I'm sure Bill will correct me if anything I'm saying is off here.

Re: Clarification
 

I am not sure what units his SD is in: $ or buy-ins. But for a
1% risk of ruin you need to have a bank of about 2.5 times variance/EV.

Bill C

Re: Clarification
 

Uh, this is a heads-up game. You don't specify SD, only winrate, SD then follows. SD~$10 for a wide range of winrates. In the specified case SD=$9.8.

1% BR=-ln(0.01)/2 * 9.8^2/1 = $221 = 20 buy-ins