10/20 AK preflop
 

Villains are 31/11, 16/6 and 64/11 respectively. I've been told that this is no good.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $10.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, I fold

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 caps (64/11) I fold

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

isn't this just a likely case of loosedonkey mp2 "might as well as cap it himself" here?

would you have capped it yourself if mp2 had folded?

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I'm honestly tempted to lock this and just say that it's standard. I won't lock it, but it is standard.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

The first two people who responded don't agree, and this post got made because I told Jason I didn't agree. I think calling this a standard fold is just plain wrong. It may be a fold, but it certainly depends alot on the guys who raised and should not be the default.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
The first two people who responded don't agree, and this post got made because I told Jason I didn't agree. I think calling this a standard fold is just plain wrong. It may be a fold, but it certainly depends alot on the guys who raised and should not be the default.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

"Villains are 31/11, 16/6 and 64/11 respectively"

Fwiw I think you should fold to unknowns, too. I was joking about locking the thread, but I do think it's very standard.

Edit to say I think there's also a good case to be made for folding even if MP2 folds.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

My personal opinion is that this is standard.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
My personal opinion is that this is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bullet fold.

blake

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I wouldnt lose sleep over this

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I'd fold this and be sad about it.

Sorry to hijack, but what's the worst hand people would call in this situation? AKs? JJ? QQ?

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

You dont own 25% of this pot pre flop? The only player you are worrying about is the 16/6 that 3-bet, I feel like the other 2 players could be all over the place. 2 out of the 3 opponents seem to be semi-bad to pretty bad players, I'm not looking for a reason to dump a solid starting hand. What am I missing here?

-mike

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
You dont own 25% of this pot pre flop? The only player you are worrying about is the 16/6 that 3-bet, I feel like the other 2 players could be all over the place. 2 out of the 3 opponents seem to be semi-bad to pretty bad players, I'm not looking for a reason to dump a solid starting hand. What am I missing here?

-mike

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing the PFRs. Just because they're loose, that doesn't mean their raising ranges are out of whack. If a 90/1 raises (assuming the it's the top 1% of hands), you'd have to fold a lot more hands than if a 16/15 raised, even though the 1st player is obviously more of a donk than the 2nd (based purely on preflop numbers).

None of these players have a PFR that is very high at all, and people's 3-betting ranges are less than their raising ranges. Capping ranges get even smaller. If you call 4 cold with AK, you're basically praying that 2 of them have QQ-TT and you spike an A or a K. Then you have to take into account the times where one has AA/KK and you flop a nice TPTK, but are still miles behind.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I don't think folding this is standard. I think folding this and then calling Jason a nit for folding it is standard.

Rob

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I think that this is standard given the villians.

1) It is likely that some of your outs are are in another players hand.
2) A significant percentage of the time you are dominated.
3) A significant percentage of the time you are playing for half the pot.
4) You have reverse implied odds.

Lost Wages

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I want to know more about the players than just mined hands.

If that's all I got, I suppose it's a fold, but it's sure not one I'm good enough to make.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I want to know more about the players than just mined hands.

If that's all I got, I suppose it's a fold, but it's sure not one I'm good enough to make.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you have to be a much, much better player to call than fold.

What do you want to know that stats don't tell you? How often someone checks the flop after they coldcap or something?

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

Umm.. what they will cold cap with?

I got cold capped with 99 yesterday (and folded A8o preflop- go me!). If I know he'll do that, I might call.

My point regarding "goodness" was just that I tend to call in spots like this where I should fold. Nothing about postflop skill or anything.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

easy fold.

what do you do with QQ and JJ is more interesting imo.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Umm.. what they will cold cap with?

[/ QUOTE ]

We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
My personal opinion is that this is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

Fold JJ and call QQ

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

Although now that I think about it, there's really no effective difference between JJ and QQ in this spot

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I was at the table and thought the fold was right. We found out over the next 50 or so hands that the capper was a huge moron who decided to give away all his money but at the time it seemed like the right move.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm.. what they will cold cap with?

[/ QUOTE ]

We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times do you need to see them cold cap with 99 to know that they'll do it?

I'm not even saying that that makes it call, I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm.. what they will cold cap with?

[/ QUOTE ]

We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it does happen in those rare times. I can count on 1 hand how often I've made this laydown. But that is a problem with stats. It doesn't really show how often they 3 bet or cap. Though I'm also not great at reading and interpreting stats. I do better from just observing. For some, the range of hands for those raises narrows significantly.

I think Dids brought up a good point.

b

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just think it's unreasonable, not necesarily unvaluable. Let's say he'll cap with AK, AKs, AQs, AQo, AA, KK, QQ and JJ. I think this is too wide, but hopefully it will help make my point.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.3124 % [ 00.15 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 20.3116 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 29.6600 % [ 00.26 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 29.7160 % [ 00.26 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
</pre><hr />

Take out the weaker offsuit hands for the open raiser and the AQ hands from the capper and we have this:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 17.3107 % [ 00.11 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 20.6327 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 27.1062 % [ 00.25 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 34.9504 % [ 00.31 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } </pre><hr />


Tighen up the 3 bettor's range to what a guy with a PFR of 6 would probably do on a day where he was feeling frisky and we have:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.3903 % [ 00.09 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 19.8966 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 31.3360 % [ 00.28 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 4: 33.3772 % [ 00.29 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
</pre><hr />


Combine all that with the fact that it's going to be really hard to avoid getting owned postflop and I really can't think of any reason to call.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Although now that I think about it, there's really no effective difference between JJ and QQ in this spot


[/ QUOTE ]
That's not true. QQ dominates AQ, but not AK. It also dominates JJ. Would you say that the different between KK and QQ is negligible as well?


[ QUOTE ]
How many times do you need to see them cold cap with 99 to know that they'll do it?

I'm not even saying that that makes it call, I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]
In general, people's raising range &gt; 3-betting range &gt; capping range. If someone has 99 in their standard cold-capping range, their PFR usually isn't 11%.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

How can anything other than folding be considered [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]? You'd need some pretty strong reads to play this, certainly more than we have from those stats.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

AK is a drawing hand.

-Michael

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
AK is a drawing hand.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]
Pot odds?

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
AK is a drawing dead hand.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

fixed your post

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

Good fold.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

i bet you anything MP2 had 97s. i would have called this cap.

position + AK = thanks.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

Fold. AKs looks pretty close as does a hand like 65s. Give me 4:1 and I'll play those hands all day long. AKo isn't really close IMO.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. AKs looks pretty close as does a hand like 65s.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't tell if this is a joke.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

No it isn't. Equity is a pretty good measure of hand strength, so let's see what comes up when we plug 65s into the equation. We are about 3:1 against flopping a money making hand (on average if you played it out an infinate number of times) with it. Even if you just play for the home run, it looks like an easy call getting 4:1 preflop. 3:1 probably isn't enough to call preflop though.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.0095 % 17.06% 00.95% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 28.6597 % 26.31% 02.35% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 29.9065 % 27.58% 02.33% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 4: 23.4244 % 23.36% 00.07% { 65s }

As you showed earlier, our equity is piss poor with AKo.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.1721 % 17.07% 01.10% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 32.1098 % 28.36% 03.75% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 34.0922 % 29.93% 04.16% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 4: 15.6259 % 09.25% 06.38% { AKo }

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP2 caps (64/11) I fold

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hobbs:

I couldn't give a [censored] about the 64/11 capper. It's the 16/6 three-bettor that has me wetting the bed.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I would fold here even if MP2 had folded.

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I can't imagine folding here preflop. :\

Re: 10/20 AK preflop
 

I think its a good fold since the PFR are 6 and 11 for the reraiser and capper. I think a good question would be is this hand worth capping against a tight reraiser whose range is probably TT+,AK.