Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

The game had only been going for 45 minutes, so reads are not especially reliable. My recollection is that I had not shown a hand to that point - a couple of uncalled PFR's and a loser or two at showdown.

EMP was an older gentleman, and had been quiet and only shown one hand (KK) until he had just been caught bluffing. Before this happened, I would definitely have voted him "most likely to fold the flop if he misses" at the table.

Button was quiet, seemingly solid, but kicked off the session with a couple of tough beats that caused him to buy more chips.

EMP openraises. Button coldcalls. I call in the BB with KsQs.

Flop is KJ2, 2 diamonds (they were all red, I can't remember which was a heart but I think KdJh2d).

I check, EMP bets, Button raises, I 3-bet.

EMP mutters "I guess you guys want me out" and folds. Button calls.

Turn is the 9d.

Any ideas on how to finish this hand?

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

I cant imagine not bettig this turn card. If raised, I might consider dropping but this would be by no means automatic (how aggressive is button in position...do you think he's the type to raise here with KT and check down river UI?). If called, I bet any non diamond river card and fold to raise (assuming buttn's not overly tricky and not on tilt).

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

I like the play so far. And I would surely bet the turn and river if not raised. I would put this guy on AQ, AJs,KQs, JQs, QTs, or Kjs as those seem like poetential CC hands that would raise that flop. SO the only one to fear is the KJ who is going to raise the turn, depending on reads, I would fold or there or go to call down mode.

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

bet and watch that f*cker.

how much time did he spend looking at that 9? did he look back at it longingly as he reaches for his chips? how did he look at you?

if he raises i may be done with this hand. but his cold call preflop is odd ESPECIALLy cold calling the EMP guy who is clearly a tight player.

id say im about 80-20 done with this hand barring other factors after i bet (which i 100% would) and he raises.

-Barron

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

"how did he look at you?"

The few hands I had seen him play, there came a point where he decided on a line and from that point forward his actions were quick and relaxed. When he called the 3-bet I could tell he was not done thinking about the hand. But I got nothing from him when the turn card hit.

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

I think there is a better than 50% chance you are behind. I also think your hand is too good to fold. Hence --

Check and call the turn. Lead river if he checks behind on the turn. Otherwise check and call the river.

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

Incidentally, I don't like lines with "fold" in them in this spot, most notably for the following reasons:

He might raise you with something like AJ with the flush ace (but not the flush jack).

He might raise you with two pair, which you can draw out on.

The pot is large.

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

[ QUOTE ]
"how did he look at you?"

The few hands I had seen him play, there came a point where he decided on a line and from that point forward his actions were quick and relaxed. When he called the 3-bet I could tell he was not done thinking about the hand. But I got nothing from him when the turn card hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i were you id be betting this turn 100%. how does he react when you bet? if youcheckced you should also clearly watch his hands eyes (where are they looking) etc.and how that differs from "normal."

id bet and if he doesn't even hesitate to raise and or looks excited id go ahead and fold a lot of the time.

-Barron

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

6.75bbs before hero bets turn is not a "large" pot.

7.75 or or 9.75:1 on a call and 10.75:1 effective on a call and check call river (damn, i forgot the action but the pot is just about this size) you can fold the turn if you're 90% sure you're beat. id be very certain im beat w/ that turn card and if he calls the flop then raises the turn.

-Barron

Re: Turn decision - Bellagio 80/160
 

[ QUOTE ]
7.75 or or 9.75:1 on a call and 10.75:1 effective on a call and check call river (damn, i forgot the action but the pot is just about this size) you can fold the turn if you're 90% sure you're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you are assuming that 100% of the time that we are beat it is by the flush (leaving us drawing dead)? If this guy could coldcall preflop with something like K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 22 and play this way, then we are making a mistake by folding even if we are beat 90% percent of the time because not only are we ahead 10% of the time, but the other 90% of the time we sometimes win anyway since we may have as many as seven outs.