How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

$5000 buyin NLHE tournament at the Commerce with 10,000 in chips to begin with.

I'm having a tough time having lost half my chips 20 minutes into the event. We're in level three with blinds of 50/100.
It's ninehanded but only six players are present and I open raise to 350 in the effective cutoff with QTo. BB calls.
I have around 4200 left and he has around 10000 left. BB lost T12000 around 20 minutes earlier playing a draw hard and then having his river bluff picked off.

Flop comes Q 3 8 rb

I bet 450 and he makes it 1100. I call.

Turn Q 3 8 9. He pushes and I call.

Comments appreciated. Results to follow.

Bruce

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
$5000 buyin NLHE tournament at the Commerce with 10,000 in chips to begin with.

I'm having a tough time having lost half my chips 20 minutes into the event. We're in level three with blinds of 50/100.
It's ninehanded but only six players are present and I open raise to 350 in the effective cutoff with QTo. BB calls.
I have around 4200 left and he has around 10000 left. BB lost T12000 around 20 minutes earlier playing a draw hard and then having his river bluff picked off.

Flop comes Q 3 8 rb

I bet 450 and he makes it 1100. I call.

Turn Q 3 8 9. He pushes and I call.

Comments appreciated. Results to follow.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never played that high a buy-in, so you have every right to ignore my analysis.

First of all, I think you calling his raise on the flop was incorrect, you had to put $650 more into a $2300, giving you ~3.5:1 pot odds. I think his raise represents him holding pocket queens, and you only have a backdoor straight draw. If I've done the math properly, you have $3550 before action on the turn, and he pushes you all in, and you call the pot of $5850 with your remaining $3550. $5850:$3550 ~= 1.64788:1 pot odds, and you have 4 outs, to 46(or 44 if you agree with my read), giving you 11.5 or 11 to 1 odds of winning. With a stack that is small, yet still manageable, I think your play was incorrect. But I'd like to know the outcome!

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

I think you have to reraise flop or fold. but i think i might fold the turn here, i really cant put him on anything, no draws etc. maybe Q8?
I highly doubt QQ bTW

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

Take tom's advice. I forgot to mention this was my first hand analysis. sorry

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

I'd say AQs is more likely than QQ here.

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

I doubt AQs, seems like the type of player that would repop w/ AQs Shorthanded in the BB. I thnk QJ is also a possibility and a couple other hands like Q8,Q9, and 89. and then 33,88,99 are all possibilities too but i think he would play a set slower. would he play a gutshot this fast like JT?

I actually don't mind a check behind on this flop to a aggressive player even though there are no draws

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

possibly up against a set who is trying to build pot on flop and pushed to get of all any draw on the turn?

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

I think it would help to know how loose you think this guy would defend in this situation. If he can have Q5s here, then I think the play is okay given your stack. If he has a tight blind defense raise, then I don't think you're ahead of enough hands to make the turn call.

Of course, if he knows you are exploiting the short-handed situation, he could definitely be bluff raising here, figuring you're most likely hand is Ax. If he was doing that, he would continue the bluff on a blank turn.

All in all, I think this play is probably okay given that this guy played a draw aggressively. That makes me think he would defend liberally and could certainly be making a move on this flop. If you are behind, you probably have 7-9 outs (against a bigger queen or a small 2 pair).

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

Did the 9 convince your call on the turn? If not, I think I would have pushed this on the flop instead.

Re: How Stupid am I or how Brilliant is this Play?
 

I call here, if he was bluffing, you are way ahead. If he has you beat, you still probably have 6-10 outs. With a bigger stack I probably fold the turn. I don't think he has a set, I think he check-raises you on the turn with a set. An overpair is also unlikely since he didn't reraise preflop (although probably more likely than a set). To me it looks like he has a Qx, 9T/JT, or a small pair.