999 vs LAG
 

5 handed, villain is 74/24/1.5 and opens in the cutoff, folds to me in the BB with red nines and I make it three, villain caps and I call.

flop [8.5sb]
9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I bet, he calls

turn [5bb]
6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I bet, he raises, I 3bet, he caps

river [13bb]
J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

so what's the plan now kids

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

bet/call?

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

check call

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

i think check/call.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

Check-call.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

blah, thought board paired on river. Dunno what I do. Probably check/call but I think that is wrong.

True

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

I like the bet/call a lot more than check/call.

For the bet/call, if villain raises every time he has a straight, we lose 2 BB. On the other hand, we win 1 BB if he doesn't have it. I'm arbitrarily setting villain folding 10% of the time. I'm not taking into account getting raised by a lesser hand for simplicity. Also I'm assuming villain will raise with a straight, which makes sense.

Let p be the probability of villain holding a straight.

p * (-2BB) + (0.9-p) * (+1BB) + 0.1 * (+0BB) > 0
-2p + 0.9 - 0.9p > 0
0.9 - 2.9p > 0
1 > 2.9p
p > 0.345

Villain needs to have a straight more than 34.5% of the time to make a bet unprofitable. I believe villain will have a straight less than 34.5% of the time, so I bet/call based on the EV calculations.

---

For the check/call, villain is a lag. Does this mean he will bet anything when checked to? I'll set the probabilty of villain betting a lesser hand to 25%, meaning 75% of the time he'll bet when we're beat. I'm unsure on these values I used here, some input would be great.

0.25 * (+1BB) + 0.75 * (-1BB) = -0.5BB

That was easy. Check/calling is -EV if villain is value betting over half the time with a hand that beats us.

This seems to go against the norm of check/call replies, I'll be double checking this.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the bet/call a lot more than check/call.

For the bet/call, if villain raises every time he has a straight, we lose 2 BB. On the other hand, we win 1 BB if he doesn't have it. I'm arbitrarily setting villain folding 10% of the time. I'm not taking into account getting raised by a lesser hand for simplicity. Also I'm assuming villain will raise with a straight, which makes sense.

Let p be the probability of villain holding a straight.

p * (-2BB) + (0.9-p) * (+1BB) + 0.1 * (+0BB) > 0
-2p + 0.9 - 0.9p > 0
0.9 - 2.9p > 0
1 > 2.9p
p > 0.345

Villain needs to have a straight more than 34.5% of the time to make a bet unprofitable. I believe villain will have a straight less than 34.5% of the time, so I bet/call based on the EV calculations.

---

For the check/call, villain is a lag. Does this mean he will bet anything when checked to? I'll set the probabilty of villain betting a lesser hand to 25%, meaning 75% of the time he'll bet when we're beat. I'm unsure on these values I used here, some input would be great.

0.25 * (+1BB) + 0.75 * (-1BB) = -0.5BB

That was easy. Check/calling is -EV if villain is value betting over half the time with a hand that beats us.

This seems to go against the norm of check/call replies, I'll be double checking this.

[/ QUOTE ]

When we win with check/call we win the whole pot, not just some part of a BB.

True

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

I'm evaluating the EV of the river play.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

Yes but that doesn't matter. You have to take in account what you win when you win and what you lose when you lose.