2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

2/4 6-max PLO

Stacks about 400. Just sat down, so no reads.

Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Preflop
2 limpers, hero pots it to make it 18 to go, both limpers call

Flop (54)
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets 54, 1 fold, and villain pot raises to 213. Hero can call and have 155 left.

Whats the plan?
Push now ? Call and fold a turn that pairs ? Call and push the turn if you make it or even if you dont but the board doesnt pair?

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

You have a wrap plush the nut flush draw, I'm pushing this hand, why bet it if you fold to a pot bet? You know you're behind at this point, but have a very good chance of winning the hand. You have 19 outs, so your pretty much even money against a set, and a slight dog against a hand like a set plus and OESD. The worst case scenario is he has hand like JJQT with 2 hearts and then it's best to fold, but other than that you're in good shape. Since there is no way of knowing if he has precicesly a set with the over OESD you can't let this hand go and I hate folding after I've already put well over half stack into a pot, I'd rather get it all in and hope I draw out.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

Assuming your oppenent has JJxx or any other set, you are about 50% to win if you push on the flop. If i were you, i would push all-in on flop, he could also be betting with a wrap/mid flush draw which would make you way ahead. Whatever falls on the turn your pushing all-in anyway, unless the board pairs. The best possible hand u could be up against is JJQT and even then its 40/60. Push the flop.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

I like option 3. You might be able to push him off two pair here. All your dough is going into any non-paired turn anyway, so you might as well put him to the test.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

I think you have to push mainly because if you hit your hand it's pretty much nothing but scare cards for him. Only a set with some of your outs type hand is a fav over what you have (and even then it's not that big)

Plus when you push then they might start calling those with hands like middle set when you have top set and etc.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

Against a very tight player who would only raise you here with a set, then you should just call so that you can release if the turn pairs the board. But against other players who could equally be raising with a draw to try to force you out when they put you on AA, then you should indeed push. Even then, someone with a similar draw and a pair could win a big pot off you with 1 pair when 2 blanks come, so playing it more softly is a legitimate option.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Against a very tight player who would only raise you here with a set, then you should just call so that you can release if the turn pairs the board. But against other players who could equally be raising with a draw to try to force you out when they put you on AA, then you should indeed push. Even then, someone with a similar draw and a pair could win a big pot off you with 1 pair when 2 blanks come, so playing it more softly is a legitimate option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why calling and leaving yourself with 155 in a $450 pot, and then folding on the turn if it pairs is the better play then just pushing. Now what if you just call and the turn doesn't pair but doesn't improve you what do you do now? Just push, or call his push? By just calling you have given yourself a new decision to make. Pushing here should get somebody to lay down top two and maybe even bottom set. And it doesn't give the opponent the opportunity to fold on the turn if the flush or straight gets there.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

You have to push right away, your atleast 50/50 or better, you cant leave yourself with a difficult decsion on the turn (if you miss) with small change in your stack.. push and be happy..

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

"Against a very tight player who would only raise you here with a set"

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

Reading is fun....

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

I'd push the flop here because you're probably the favorite and also as part of an overall game plan. I'd also push top set here so players know that they can't always correctly pass hands like a bottom and middle set.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

That's not a big draw, that's an absolute monster draw.

+1 vote for push no matter what.

Re: 2/4 Flop big draw, get raised, plan ?
 

I'd like to make clear that I am more often pushing this flop than not. But my post above shows that there are some important things you need to think about including the types of players you are against and the types of hands they might have. And you would definitely rather be against a set here than another draw (although if you were the one with a pair and a great draw then that wouldn't be so).

Results, and thoughts
 

Ladies and gentlemen.

Clearly, I am not folding this hand in this spot, so the question I have is how do I *play* the hand.

When we get raised here, villain often has either
A. a set
B. top two (or if he is a muppet any two)
C. a big draw (cant be bigger than mine right ?)

Im nearly 50/50 with a set, and a small favourite over top two. Im a big favourite over a big draw (like QhTh7d8d). But my odds reduce if he has a draw and two pair (for example) ... if he has QhThJd9d - then Im 50/50 again.

Should I always shovel my chips in, when I am 50/50 here ... can I not try to shade the odds in my favour somehow? If I always gamble on 50/50 shots, then I never make any money really.

I decided to call, planning to push any non-pairing turn card. If he had a set, then the money was going in regardless, and if I made my draw on the turn, then he would have to call. If he did not have a set, then he would probably fold the turn, but very often, this bet is a set (depending on the player).

I called, the turn was T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I pushed and he folded.

This fold makes me question my reasoning .... he clearly does not have a set, because he would have to call this bet with a set. And he doesnt have a draw, because thats a good card for the draws, so he had to have two pair. Perhaps I let him off the hook.

Food for thought. Does this play work better when stacks are deeper?

Please explain all your reasons for pushing the flop.

Re: Results, and thoughts
 

if you had considerably more money you could consider calling and getting away from the hand if the board pairs. with as little as you have left i think you just need to put it in and get it over with. while he will never fold much for 150 more if he did at this point it would be a great result and you cant be in bad shape. if you had another 1000 behind i would definetly call the flop with the intention of folding if it pairs but still having plenty of equity to call if it dosent pair but you miss.
in the situation you gave the money is just too short to mess around. there is always the chance the board could pair and your hand could still be live also and with the money this shallow im not going to put myself in that position.
matty