Two Plus Two Older Archives

Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Poker Theory (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=13)
-   -   Implied odds and probability question (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=285572)

youwereborn 07-03-2005 06:04 PM

Implied odds and probability question
 
I have been playing loose ring games lately and made a few playing adjustments to compensate for the enourmous implied odds. The first is that I buy in with a full stack, the second is that I will limp in with suited connectors (even non suited connecors and any suited ace or king from around back) The third is that I give significantly less value to hands like AK becuase with 5 callers there is just too much risk someone will flop two pair, trips, strait etc. Also, thses hands are hard to play after the flop even when an A or K hits for the above mentioned reasons.
So I guess my first question is is this the right strategy. My second (and most important) question is what are the odds of hitting an open ended starit draw, or a flush draw, or trips or better with a hand like JTs. I have looked everywhere and only been able to find the odds of individual events like the odds of hitting the OESD or the FD but I cant find the odds of hitting anyone of these hands or better (Trips FH etc.)
My final question is with these hands (JTs) what kind of implied odds do you need, ie.) if it costs .50 to limp in how much do you need to be making with these hands when you hit them to make them profitable.
Any info or place where i could find the info would be greatly appreciated.

Hybrid_11 07-03-2005 06:18 PM

Re: Implied odds and probability question
 
Playing Ax suited and Kx suited is a big no no for the most part. When i started I played any Ax as well but anybody can correct me if im wrong a flush comes in when you have 2 suited cards 6% of the time and with many Axs and Kxs hands either you hit your flush or you flop top pair but a majority of the time pay off to a much better kicker, their return rate is to low to be profitable hands so don't play them.
I do not think you quite understand implied odds either. Implied odds refer to the bets you might make from later streets if you make your draw. this is used to determine if a call with a drawing hand is profitable or not
To find out the chances of certain situations happening it might be better to post in the probability section.
Hope this helps and good luck with future playing

srm80 07-04-2005 04:43 AM

Re: Implied odds and probability question
 
I thought it was actually profitable (in loose games) to raise in late position if the pot hasn't been raised with hands like ATs and even KTs, because most of the players will have already made the mistake of entering the pot with a weaker hand.

AaronBrown 07-05-2005 12:25 AM

Re: Implied odds and probability question
 
Your strategic instincts are sound. With a lot of players in the pot, it makes more sense to go for a hand that will certainly win if you hit it, than a hand likely to be pretty good, but not good enough.

If I understand your probability question, you're asking about the flop only. There are 19,600 possible flops. Your JTs could result in:

Straight Flush, 4 ways
Quads, 2 ways
Full house, 18 ways
Flush, 161 ways
Straight, 252 ways
Trips, 264 ways
Open-end straight flush draw, 120
Four-flush, 2,025 ways
Open End Straight Draw, 1,800 ways

Add them all up and you get 4,646 good things that can happen. So you'll hit something 23.7% of the time.

youwereborn 07-05-2005 03:30 PM

Re: Implied odds and probability question
 
Sorry i didnt get back to this earlier, but i cannot thank you enough i have been trying to get this info for a week now.... you are my hero


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:04 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.