Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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You are now assuming that people from developing countries make great poker players.

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They make great doctors, great lawyers, great scientists, great athletes, great chess players etc. What's so special with poker that is beyond their abilities?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Hi all. I am from Argentina. I haven't read all the posts here because I got tired at number 20. Despite that, I can talk from my experience. I play at the 200 NL and 400 NL. There are several factors that would influence in making the decision of making a career at poker. We can discuss it later if you want.
But I think in this discussion the the bottom line is: 2 OF 10 PEOPLE AT THIS BUSINESS is/are a winning player/s (meaning by this capable of a wealthy life wherever he/she lives).

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I'm amazed that there aren't Chinese Poker Sweatshops already.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Hi all. I am from Argentina. I haven't read all the posts here because I got tired at number 20. Despite that, I can talk from my experience. I play at the 200 NL and 400 NL. There are several factors that would influence in making the decision of making a career at poker. We can discuss it later if you want.
But I think in this discussion the the bottom line is: 2 OF 10 PEOPLE AT THIS BUSINESS is/are a winning player/s (meaning by this capable of a wealthy life wherever he/she lives).

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I'll be in Santa Fe in 2 weeks.. can't wait!

The difference is that probably only 5% could afford a wealthy USA lifestlye via playing poker, while 15 to 25% coud afford a wealthy lifestyle in Argentina playing poker (if the current loosness remained). Hell, beating 2/4 Limit would be a great wage down there. That would be 57 pesos an hour or about about 113k a year. My friend worked her ass off for 6 years to get a masters in economics then went through a rather discriminating job interview process (going to phsycholigist, stating age, Pictures, marital status, blood profile???..etc) just so she could get a job maining 17k. However, she enjoys her work and has wealthy parents so she isn't that interested in poker. Your younger brother (still in college) is and I'm planning to teach him the game over christmas. He is a very bright kid as are his 3 siblings and I'm sure all four could beat limits up to 5/10.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

interesting theory

as one who is currently living in thailand i can tell you that this is very unlikely to ever happen

the reasons it wont happen now...

1. Computer literacy
2. English language literacy
3. Expense of books
4. Speed of internet connections
5. Expense of computer equipment

and on top of that, at least in the asian countries...gambling is heavily frowned upon, these people would never do something, at least on a large scale, that they know their family would dissaprove of

study individualism/collectivism for more on this

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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gambling is heavily frowned upon, these people would never do something, at least on a large scale, that they know their family would dissaprove of


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thai people are gambling maniacs and do alot of things their parents dissaprove of, however, I guess the smarter, more educated players who are more likley to be winners would steer clear of it.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

IMO I definitely don't agree with the original post. I think you can think of online poker as a business supply and demand model quite simply. One assumption I am making is that there will be a more or less constant supply of fish. As more "good" players start playing, players that used to be marginally beating the game will notice they are losing and quit. Or pros will notice too large a drop in their winrate to continue playing and have it be worth their while. A shift will occur in the demand and an equilibrium point will be reestablished. Even if the supply of fish does change, a new equilibrium point will be established with fewer sharks. The weakness in this model is variance. It will take players a fairly long time to realize they aren't making as much which will create a pretty sibstantial timelag. Especially since it is almost impossible to tell over 20k hands if the conditions of the game have affected your winrate or not. I don't think online poker will stop becoming lucrative anytime soon.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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You are now assuming that people from developing countries make great poker players.

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They make great doctors, great lawyers, great scientists, great athletes, great chess players etc. What's so special with poker that is beyond their abilities?

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Americans make great doctors, great lawyers, great scientists, great athletes, great chess players etc. What's so special with poker that is beyond their abilities?
I have no idea.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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and on top of that, at least in the asian countries...gambling is heavily frowned upon, these people would never do something, at least on a large scale, that they know their family would dissaprove of


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Except the chinese. Gambling equals luck and happiness in their culture. Chinese immigrants flock casino's in Holland. If China would become a democracy expect some crazy poker boom. Don't see that happening though.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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and on top of that, at least in the asian countries...gambling is heavily frowned upon, these people would never do something, at least on a large scale, that they know their family would dissaprove of


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Except the chinese. Gambling equals luck and happiness in their culture. Chinese immigrants flock casino's in Holland. If China would become a democracy expect some crazy poker boom. Don't see that happening though.

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go check average household income in china