Post Flop Play
 

6 handed
5-10 party

i have no reads, just sat down.

guy limps utg, sb completes, im in bb w/ 94

it comes

T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb bets $10, I raise $50, UTG raises $150

i am not folding here. i think he has JJ-AA a large percentage of the time. a flush draw a very small percentage of the time.

what is your play here? what is your plan on the turn depending on which card comes.

my thoughts to follow...

Re: Post Flop Play
 

Too much missing info...

[ QUOTE ]
i have no reads, just sat down.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i am not folding here. i think he has JJ-AA a large percentage of the time. a flush draw a very small percentage of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

A weak read if you just sat down and have no knowledge of the player. UTG has shown strength over two random blind hands aggressive actions. I would seriously give a set or T9 more weight than you're giving. Probably ~40% set or top two, ~35% overpair, ~20% AT/KT, ~5% flush draw/other.

You forgot to announce SB's action. I assume SB folded.

You also forgot stack sizes again. This is important.

I will assume the stacks are enormous enough to make three more big bet decisions on the flop, turn and river.

You say you won't fold here, so I guess I have no choice but to call the flop, check-call the turn and check-fold the river push unimproved.

Garland

Re: Post Flop Play
 

Given that you won't fold and put him on an overpair, I like check-raising all in on the turn.

Re: Post Flop Play
 

If he just sat down then his stack size must be 1000.

Re: Post Flop Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he just sat down then his stack size must be 1000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although that is a good point, it's not necessarily true unless it was his very first hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I take "just sat down" to mean anything from very first hand to first few orbits.

Also we are left to guess that UTG has hero covered, and is not short-stacked.

Garland

Re: Post Flop Play
 

never folding here? are you saying you are going to the felt if say a 2c peels off on the turn?

if that is the case and you are that confident he is holding an overpair as often as you claim, then just call.

on a non-flush turn, you can bet weakly (1/3 pot) into him, and if he is holding an overpair, he may read you for pricing yourself into a flush-draw, and will subsequently raise you pretty big, and you can go ahead and 3-bet it in there.

on a flushing turn, you can make a case for either checking (hoping he will fear a transparent flush check-raise), or bet, it all kind of depends on the card.

i hate playing bottom two, out of position, against someone that is putting in a second raise, with a flush/straight draw on the board. he may have a hand like Ah10h that has you notched and is wanting to get all of his chips in the middle.

Re: Post Flop Play
 

if the guy started this hand with a dime, checkraise the turn allin on a blank...

Re: Post Flop Play
 

i have $1000. He has me covered. SB folded.

20% AT/KT is way too high.

[ QUOTE ]
Too much missing info...

[ QUOTE ]
i have no reads, just sat down.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i am not folding here. i think he has JJ-AA a large percentage of the time. a flush draw a very small percentage of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

A weak read if you just sat down and have no knowledge of the player. UTG has shown strength over two random blind hands aggressive actions. I would seriously give a set or T9 more weight than you're giving. Probably ~40% set or top two, ~35% overpair, ~20% AT/KT, ~5% flush draw/other.

You forgot to announce SB's action. I assume SB folded.

You also forgot stack sizes again. This is important.

I will assume the stacks are enormous enough to make three more big bet decisions on the flop, turn and river.

You say you won't fold here, so I guess I have no choice but to call the flop, check-call the turn and check-fold the river push unimproved.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Post Flop Play
 

I think a push all in here is evil. I push in.

The trouble with seeing a turn half the deck has potential to kill the action. Any A, J, 10, 7, heart etc will minimise your winnings. And even IF a blank hits, after you call his 3-bet, there's -some- chance he'll shutdown. And if he hits his two outer as he does 5% of the time, you suffer major losses.

Edit: remember he only has to call your push 30% of the time to make it +EV on check raising a turn, and thats assuming nothing goes wrong.

Re: Post Flop Play
 

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And if he hits his two outer as he does 5% of the time, you suffer major losses.

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What possible 2 outer is there other than a pocket pair under 9, which is about 0.001% chance of being in the range of hands. If he has AA he has 5 outs, and 8 on the turn if it is not a 9 or 4.