Re: 15/30 KJo
 

the pot's pretty small, so the question becomes whether or not giving a 2 outer a free card is compensated for by the other factors I mentioned

what if all those hands checkraise and I'm forced to fold?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Recognize that most "air" hands on this flop like jacks. They either have one or it creates some sort of straight draw.

This is an uncomfortable situation. I bet to apply pressure to all the eights, jacks, pocket pairs, and straight draws. If he had an ace maybe he would have done something by now?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Scenario 1:

I still think checking is the best solution. I dont think there is any VALUE to betting here. You bet, he folds, you win. Number of bets won/lost after the flop? 0

You bet he raises, and you fold. Number of bets won/lost? -1

You check, he bets a blank river, you call and your J is good (As you might suspect). Number of bets won/lost? +1

The other viable strategy here is to bet, and if you get raised by someone you think is BS'ing you, 3-bet them. Versus the right player, this will garner 2 bets with no showdown.

Nick

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I would bet the turn unless you expect to get semibluff-raised or bluff raised pretty frequently. In the games I play, most guys will call down with any pair here. He also could have peeled the flop with 56 or 67 (or a flush draw in example 2).

If he calls the turn, I would also bet the river and fold to a raise. I think you miss too much value by checking the turn.

If it's a very aggro guy who is capable of raising as a bluff or semibluff, go ahead and check it. Or if it's a guy who will only call the flop with an ace.

Otherwise, bet it dawg.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think there is any VALUE to betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're telling me the 15/30 on party is a game where players will never call this turn bet with an 8, 4, straight draw, or other pocket pair?

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

Chief, I too am baffled by your statement.

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I heavily favor a bet on both turns. We have to remember that we are in a blind steal situation and players are very likely to call down with any piece, not just an Ace. I bet the turn for value and against most players I am more than comfortable with fold to a c/r.

Also I think he c/r a FD and c/r the A more often than he check/calls and waits to pop the turn. This looks like he has a piece and is calling down or maybe has a pp and is hoping to "hit"

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

I've always said I'm just a donk livin the life. =)

Nick

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

scenario 2 was the real hand, scenario 1 was just something I was curious about. he had 22 and called the river

Re: 15/30 KJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Chief, I too am baffled by your statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must say Chief I was suprised when I saw you favored checking, and in your scenarios you left out you bet/he calls. You still win one bet here after the flop, but you make people pay to see the river no matter how weak thier draws are. Also, there is a chance you can pick up the pot on the turn.

If raised you could easily fold.

I favor betting here