Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

This is from a mini-setp 5 I played last night. I usually play the $22s, so this table seemed to play very tight to me. The SB has been very tight and played no more than 3 hands so far with no more than one PFR before this. I have been just as tight (mainly because I haven't found more than one playable hand yet).


Table Mini Step 5 1067373 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: tmay420 (1010)
Seat 2: TheSwampRat (1190)
Seat 3: tolumax (910)
Seat 4: Gambiano1 (955)
Seat 5: ChipLederer (1175)
Seat 6: BurgerLover (930)
Seat 7: OLD_TABLE (1825)
Seat 8: TEVOLVER (900)
Seat 10: thebomber (1105)
ChipLederer posts small blind (75)
BurgerLover posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BurgerLover [ 9s, 8c ]

7 folds.
ChipLederer raises (250) to 325
BurgerLover ???

Does this look like a good re-steal opportunity? If I push, he'll have to call 780 (leaving him with less than 2 BBs behind) for a pot of 1255. His pot odds would be 1.6:1, so just around neutral if he doesn't have a pair and puts me on overcards (or he has a medium pair and puts me on overs).

The problem for me was that I didn't know what to make of his PFR - it's basically a mini-raise. He's giving me such good odds (~3:1), that I think he wants me to call, which means that he'll probably call my push. So should I fold or am I psyching myself out? Is his bet a pot-sweetener or a request to be pushed on?

totally lost here...

ts-

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

Ummm... how about just folding? I'd be very surprised to see him fold to a push, whether he's stealing or not.

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

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Ummm... how about just folding? I'd be very surprised to see him fold to a push, whether he's stealing or not.

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I agree.

you'll have plenty of stealing opportunities in the future

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

I agree also. He know you're going to be defending with a wide range, so if he has any type of hand, he's going to call.

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

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I'd be very suprised to see him fold to a push, whether he's stealing or not.

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So you don't think I have any fold equity here? Even if he's on a steal? If he is on a steal, I find it hard to believe that he'll call off the rest of his stack and potentially cripple himself getting just 3:2. Especially when he can fold and still have a respectable stack.

ts-

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

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I'd be very suprised to see him fold to a push, whether he's stealing or not.

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So you don't think I have any fold equity here? Even if he's on a steal? If he is on a steal, I find it hard to believe that he'll call off the rest of his stack and potentially cripple himself getting just 3:2. Especially when he can fold and still have a respectable stack.

ts-

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Who knows? Anything's possible. You really want to find out with 98o?

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

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Who knows? Anything's possible.

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How does "anything's possible" mean you're guaranteed to get a call. "Anything's possible" means you have a chance to get a call--there are very few plays in poker that have 0 variance.

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

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totally lost here...


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When I get totally lost, I remind myself of my #1 rule: At the end of the SnG you want to be FIRST into the pot.

Yes you have to deviate from rule #1 sometimes but not here. You are voluntarily putting all of your chips on the line against a tight player who basically min raises you with his first PFR. Yeah, maybe they are going small to be able to let it go, but there has to be better spots down the road.

Let this one go and push all in next time you can be first into the pot if you are itching for action. My guess is that would be higher tourney EV [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Pokerscott

Re: Mini-step 5 - re-steal opportunity?
 

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Who knows? Anything's possible.

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How does "anything's possible" mean you're guaranteed to get a call. "Anything's possible" means you have a chance to get a call--there are very few plays in poker that have 0 variance.

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Who said anything about a guarantee? You want my estimate, 13.8% of the time he folds. The rest of the time you are all-in w 98o against a hand that, on average, is going to be substantially ahead of yours. I'll leave the rest of the math as an exercise.