109 thin semi-bluff
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

MP2 (t975)
MP3 (t1130)
CO (t955)
Button (t920)
Hero (t615)
BB (t1040)
UTG (t1545)
UTG+1 (t930)
UTG+2 (t970)
MP1 (t1920)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">8 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t30) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600 (All-In)</font>,

villain has played 3 hands out of 11 and not raised pre-flop. i don't remember anything that he did specifically. i lost my chips where i raised in EMP and cbet HU on a A85 flop and check/folded the turn (i had JJ).

Re: 109 thin semi-bluff
 

If you haven't seen villain make a similar raise and fold when someone came over the top, then this is very thin indeed. This early in a party tourney, there are a lot of loose/bad players still about. I expect you will get looked up by a pair of 7s or even less pretty often. I fold after getting raised.

Re: 109 thin semi-bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you haven't seen villain make a similar raise and fold when someone came over the top, then this is very thin indeed. This early in a party tourney, there are a lot of loose/bad players still about. I expect you will get looked up by a pair of 7s or even less pretty often. I fold after getting raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

for reference, that's usually not a disaster:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c 7h 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 8h 409 41.31 581 58.69 0 0.00 0.413
Qs 7c 581 58.69 409 41.31 0 0.00 0.587

Re: 109 thin semi-bluff
 

Naturally, you have a 40% chance to beat a pair out. Villain made a strong move. I just don't think villain will fold often enough to make this very +EV. If I had 9h8h, I would come over the top.

Re: 109 thin semi-bluff
 

This is fine, I don't mind gamboooooooling here with your stack size, and he's probably not stronger than a 7.