Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I'm saying the same thing as betgo then. If you get a +EV push, awesome, take it. If not, just call your stack in the BB or get a walk if you're lucky.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is an additional (or maybe just diff.) comment. My FE is nothing, but with t330 I still have value in terms of $EV. What I would hope would happen, is that the BB calls and I suckout or have him dominated. Now I have t735 and almost have some FE which I can then parlay into something - I hope.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

my instinct is to fold btw, but if you are playing opps who might fold a decent % in BB then you shuold likely push. however at the 215s Id fold this in a flash and hope to actually be dealt a good hand.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

changed my mind, pushing is probably correct. I should know this, but Im so great that Ive never been this shortstacked before.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? How could you have less tourney equity than ICM calculates here? Of course it doesn't take into account FE - it never does.

In the math I showed, I included your FE on this particular hand. If you argue that when you win (either uncontested or when called) then you have more FE, I agree with that...but you still need to calculate the equity of this particular hand to use as a baseline before making adjustments for subsequent hands. I showed that a fold shows a 1.3% difference in equity vs a call. Is the equity you gain on subsequent hands a greater difference than that? I don't know, and it's tough to figure out...but as a general rule I'm not going to make a play that loses me 1.3% equity.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I dont think thats it. The calling ranges you put your opponents on is basically a function of what you consider your FE to be. After converting those chips to $ (ICM) you have two equities amounts. The FE is factored in there.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

ICM assumes that all stacks are equally playable. It doesn't give you an extra dose of equity because you have a monster stack and know you can steam roll the table and it doesn't subtract any equity when your stack is so small you have no moves left to make.

It calculates finish distribution based on relative stack sizes and your equity based on payout structure.

I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]

changed my mind, pushing is probably correct. I should know this, but Im so great that Ive never been this shortstacked before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, that's twice in two days, ur getting old or something [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
ICM assumes that all stacks are equally playable. It doesn't give you an extra dose of equity because you have a monster stack and know you can steam roll the table and it doesn't subtract any equity when your stack is so small you have no moves left to make.

It calculates finish distribution based on relative stack sizes and your equity based on payout structure.

I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misunderstood you previously. I guess if having a BS gives you extra EV than ICM dictates (by being able to steamroll) then it should follow that the EV must come from somewhere?

nice

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Argue it then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To take a very extreme situation, you're HU with stacks of 7999/1. According to ICM, big stack has 50% equity and smallie has 30% equity. Overvalued? Of course not.

That's an extreme case, and you don't have to (and can't, in fact) argue that ICM overvalues the small stack. I am however interested to hear your argument as to what my math is missing here (and I really think there probably is something, I just don't know what it is).

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

General tournament theory states that chips are worth more as the stack sizes go down, so if anything ICM should be undervaluing the true equity here, not overvaluing it.

Assuming the big stack knows how to use it to advantage, I'd assume the missing equity comes from the average stacks. This makes sense because the average stacks are the easiest to bully; big stacks have to respect other big stacks, and small stacks have pot odds to call anything, so the average ones are the ones susceptible to being stolen from, and hence the likely ones to supply the "missing" equity.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Argue it then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To take a very extreme situation, you're HU with stacks of 7999/1. According to ICM, big stack has 50% equity and smallie has 30% equity. Overvalued? Of course not.

That's an extreme case, and you don't have to (and can't, in fact) argue that ICM overvalues the small stack. I am however interested to hear your argument as to what my math is missing here (and I really think there probably is something, I just don't know what it is).

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: All of the following is meant to apply to 5-8 handed situations such as in OP.

I think your calculations were correct (I can't really check them now), but I think the model breaks down here.

ICM assumes that everybody is of equal skill. But what does that really mean? It means every player will make the same average EV decisions.

When your stack gets this crippled you no longer have the opportunity due to lost FE and the limited number of hands you can play before being blinded out to pick your spots.

The rest of the table is now "out playing" you because they can make better +EV decisions than you can possibly make.

Your relative skill level at the table is now very low. ICM does not account for this.

Blind equity modeling actually got me thinking about another problem with short stack calculations.

If you turn on the blind equity modeling when you are UTG you get all kinds of push hands that were folds from UTG+1 because now you are calculating your fold EV based on the potential of losing your blind some percentage of the time next hand. Your position was better UTG+1, same stack, same cards, and the $EV of pushing was actually higher. But SNGPT says not to push because we're not UTG and it is not discounting the value of our stack based on paying the blind next hand and therefore calculates the value of folding as higher. The only thing you gain is the value of seeing one more hand. This is a real value, but it is small and hard to quantify.(If sombody can help here I would appreciate it)

If you can accept blind equity modeling affecting your EVfold from UTG(EVfold=EVutg-x%BB), wouldn't the next logical extention be that:

EVfold from UTG+1=EVutg-x%BB+(the value of one unseen hand)
EVfold from UTG+2=EVutg-x%BB+(the value of two unseen hands)

This is starting to ramble and I'm hungover at work. I'll let you chew on it for a little while and then see where we are at when I get home in a little while.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

The other guy made a long post that might have even had scary maths in it, but here's my attempt:
FE does not have a linear relationship with stack size. Acquiring chips without showdowns is vital to winning SNGs.
Three dots
ICM overvalues FEless stacks at the expense of medium stacks.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
The other guy made a long post that might have even had scary maths in it, but here's my attempt:
FE does not have a linear relationship with stack size. Acquiring chips without showdowns is vital to winning SNGs.
Three dots
ICM overvalues FEless stacks at the expense of medium stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]


What?

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I have two questions.

#1. Jukel- did you lurk at all on 2+2 before signing and flaming some seriuosly good/smart guys?
#2. Is it possible to mute/ignore someone? If so please PM me and explain.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

With the ranges that people are putting the SB on would it be more realistic for the SB to isolate rather than flat call?

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely agree with you. ICM does break down when stacks get extremely low. For example, a player with 300 chips when the BB is at 30 has the same ICM value as he does when the BB is at 400 which clearly wouldn't be the case. Additionally, this player would have the same ICM value if he was going to post the 400 chip BB in 1 hand or in 6 hands. Remember, ICM is supposed to give you your fair market value.

Clearly, if you had the opportunity to "buy" this players 400 stack and take over for him for whatever value ICM says it is worth then you would prefer the 30 BB over the 400 BB and you would always prefer being further away from having to post the blinds.

ICM does not take "time" or lack there of it, imminent blinding out or complete lack of Fold Equity into account. So, it undervalues short stacks when the blinds are low and overvalues them when the blinds are high and, when stacks are low and blinds are high the short stacks ICM drops each hand as he gets closer to being forced to post the blinds.

rvg

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

So, I 've read allmost all posts and I think pushing is best here. Three reasons:

1) J8o with two possible callers is good enough outright to justify risking the little equity that you have left.
2) Winning this push will not win you the tourney nor will it relieve much of the pressure. You will have to go all-in again pretty soon anyway. It is better to win the next one with more than 330 chips. This will get you some place.
3) In that spot, you do not so much play your cards but the situation. The situation here is one of the better ones. IMO, the optimum situation would be to call behind a big stack's all-in (he should have a lot of FE) to get HU with him with a chance to triple up. The current chip distribution will make this very unlikely however. You are sitting in front of the bigger stacks. Moreover, during the next hands everybody will have to push through the big stack, so they will tighten up and you will not enter HU with the big stack with a lot of dead money included.

So the plan should be to push here, win the HU and push at the next opportunity, preferably against the big stack in SB and BB, and win this one too. Then you could suddenly be looking at 1300 chips and chalk up another ITM.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you were SB and thought your Ax was good against button's raise would you flat call or RR here? I think flat calling by SB is a mistake so I dont see why we are all discussing there being two callers as though it were a common occurrence.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty.

[/ QUOTE ]

welcome to my world...I thought i was just "passing by" in this thread and lo and behold, 50 posts later...I'm still here defending this stupid push.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Jukel,

Please start making posts with content or be banned.

c

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hank, I wouldn't waste my breath if I were you. These clowns won't listen to reason. Just be glad that we are thinking players rather than braindead pushbotters. You are correct to question the "common consensus" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the clown here.

As much as I may not understand why this is an obvious push, you are characterizing it as an obvious fold - when it is clearly not that either.

The difference is that you are a complete [censored], while most of the people here actually take the time to think about what they are doing.

IMHO you should really shut the f*ck up because you just sound like an idiot.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO you should really shut the f*ck up because you just sound like an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent!

Reguardless of the trolls pig headedness, I my self am still a nOOB as far SnG's go,I learned more from this thread then I learned (today on my lunch hour)reading the ALL-IN section in TPFAP.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push

Yes it does...

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt go that far, but J8 to me seems like plenty.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I don't know why I'm rechiming in here, well, I am bored.

Like I said, looks like a push, but it's close. Pushing any two is pretty crazy. If I kept getting terrible terrible cards, I'd just take the BB.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why I'm rechiming in here, well, I am bored.



[/ QUOTE ]

ditto that...im locking myself out of this thread...the law of diminishing returns has taken over.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took.

I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

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Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took.

I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.

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You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.