Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

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My friend appears to have good innate ability at BJ

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While it is true a BJ player must have the "smarts", there really is no "innate" ability that makes one BJ player better than another.

BJ is purely a mathematical game. In poker you play higher limits by getting better. In BJ, what separates a red player and a black player isn't necessarily skill, but BR.

I've got a program at home called BJ Risk Mngr. When I get home I can plug in some #'s to give you an idea of hourly expectation.

Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

People exaggerate win rates. This is easy to do because the winning sessions are all recorded as due to skill, and the losing sessions can all be attributed to bad luck and ignored. You story of your friend's average win rate are not plausible.

NLHE with a $5 big blind should be much more profitable than green chip blackjack, with no risk of being identified and barred.

Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

If Casinos allowed you to bet whatever you want (within their table limits) without any heat/barring then blackjack would be about 100X better poker game.
The problem is you have to limit your spread, and limit your playing hours to avoid detection. Your playing AGAINST the house, and they hate losing money.
With poker you can play to your hearts content and the casino is happy.

Your far better playing poker then blackjack these days.
BTW I used to be a card counter, red chip betting mainly $5-$60. The swings can be brutal. Having a 1% advantage means very little during each session, as you can still lose hand after hand with max bets out.

Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

Spoke with my friend. If you take his biggest win, a weekend session that netted about $8-10k (it was a lights out session). Then his hourly win rate comes out to be $80-100. But exclude that win, the $1000 per weekend or $50 per hour seems to be more achievable and his norm.

$10 per hour seems pretty pathetic. Is this considered the expected win rate for a competent counter playing $25 BJ with the 1-8/10 spread at the Borgata. Getting conflicting info.

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My friend appears to be doing $80-100 per hour.

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Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

General assumptions...sorry if you gave excact specifics, I didn't go back and re-read the thread.

6 deck shoe, 5 decks dealt(very generous penetration).
$25 unit spread 25 - 300 (1-12 spread)
using Hi/Lo with the Illustrious 18 indices

Winrate/100 hands = $36.75. If you only get 60 per hour thats $22.05.

SD/100 = $841

30K BR gives you a ROR of 4.46%
10K BR = 35.45%
BR less than that, flirting with disaster.

If he spreads higher than $300, ofcourse that increases expectation, but also increases ROR.

And this all assumes play all(no wonging) and perfect play.
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In fact my friend doesn't even take card counting seriously

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Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

nice to see the cold hard facts in this thread, thanks for that.

what does this mean: "this all assumes play all(no wonging)"??

thanks again.

Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

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what does this mean: "this all assumes play all(no wonging)"??

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this means you can't sit out of hands during the shoe with a negative count, nor can you jump into a shoe only when the count is high. you have to bet at least the minimum $25 each hand even when there is a negative expectation.

according to the recent issue of CBJN, all Borg tables with limits $25-6000 are No Mid Shoe Entry. you might be able to backcount at the lower $10-1000 tables, but then the OP friend's claim of a $8-10K win would be overwhelmingly unlikely.

Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

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what does this mean: "this all assumes play all(no wonging)"??

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You play every hand. No "shadow bets".

Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

The innate ability I'm referring to is mathematical skills, like memory and the ability to quickly calculate the odds.

But you're right, once you're talking about the top 5-10% players, it's no longer a matter of keeping track of the cards.

Though a player like Stu Ungar was such a great counter, he could count 8 deck shoe, in his case he could tell you the suit and rank of the last card. That type of effortless ability has to translate into a big advantage versus someone who needs to really concentrate to keep track of the count.

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While it is true a BJ player must have the "smarts", there really is no "innate" ability that makes one BJ player better than another.

BJ is purely a mathematical game. In poker you play higher limits by getting better. In BJ, what separates a red player and a black player isn't necessarily skill, but BR.

I've got a program at home called BJ Risk Mngr. When I get home I can plug in some #'s to give you an idea of hourly expectation.

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Re: Blackjack vs Poker
 

Just want to comment on the relative intelligence required to card count in Blackjack as opposed to playing advantage poker:

Card counting, by itself, requires the intelligence of learning hand selection pre-flop in hold 'em.