raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

Prima, 0.5/1

Average VPT 21-23%

Hero is on UTG with 99.
Button - 13/6/2.5 acc. to 250hands.

Hero raises, everyone folds, button reraises, hero calls.
Flop (7.5Sb) - 2 3 A
Hero?

2 question:
1) Should I cap preflop (to represent lately stronger hand)?
2) Should I continue on flop (bet or check-raise)?

Possible button hands: AQ, AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT.
I am beaten anyway, but the probability of KK, QQ, JJ, and TT is about 30%, TAG may fold them with Ace on flop.

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

A good TAG player will never fold KK-TT on that flop.

Simply check/fold is the right play because giving his stats, he won't 3 bet KQs.

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

Prima 0.5/1 is always in range of 20-25 vpt.
Perhaps I will switch to Party in a couple of weeks.

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

As always, tilt, you rock. What would your play be if he raises? Fold? Call and fold turn UI?

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

I get 1:7 to my flop bet, that means I need only 14% of success to break even. According to probability of 30% of KK, QQ, JJ, TT, TAG should fold half of the time with such hands to give me the profit.
I think the bet on TAG would be correct, weak players as I notice calls their QQ to the end anyway.

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
friends-

Don't cap preflop with 99.

Sykes is correct, check/fold. Hero missed this flop and doesn't have the odds to continue, especially against a TAG.

Do you normally play tables this tight? If so, I recommned seeking out some looser tables.

Regards, LG

[/ QUOTE ]

he's likely weak - so i'd fire a bet on the flop.
what hands raise UTG but won't cap it preflop? any tag will know you have AQ or AJ...if he has JJ-KK he's folding a lot here.

(and i wouldn't cap preflop out of position against this guy)

[/ QUOTE ]

I get 1:7 to my flop bet, that means I need only 14% of success to break even. According to probability of 30% of KK, QQ, JJ, TT, TAG should fold half of the time with such hands to give me the profit.
I think the bet on TAG would be correct, weak players as I notice calls their QQ to the end anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be weak then because I'm NEVER releasing QQ on this board.

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

I'd bet the flop.

If raised, I suppose you could dump because the pot is small, and given his stats, you are most likely behind.

If he only calls, I'm checking the turn and folding to a bet.

Just hope he's tight-weak, but with a 2.5 agg, he's re-raising or calling down.

Re: raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser
 

your possible plays are:

1. check/fold
this is the safest, low variance play. Given the button's stats this probably the best play.

2. bet to see where you are
the most likely scenario is you bet, he calls, you check, he bets, you fold. A player this tight most likely will not fold, and the moment you show weakness he'll probably bet you.

3. check-raise
tricky plays like this at low limits are probably pointless, but he'll probably remember you forever if you show down the 99.