PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Final table of the PokerStars Double Shootout. We're down to the final 5. Winner gets the $12k package. 2nd and 3rd get $650. 4th gets $65. Play has tightened up. The two larger stacks aren't getting into big battles. The shorter ones also seem to be waiting for something to happen. I haven't had much resistance when I've opened pots and I believe I'm the best player left.

UTG: t1180
MP: t6275
Hero: t1310
SB: t4145
BB: t590

Blinds 50/100

UTG pushes t1180. I'm positive this is not a steal and he has some sort of real hand. I cannot remember the last time he opened UTG. MP folds and it's on me.

What range of hands would you call with?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

The cards you are holding are a factor here....

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Hmmm what do you have?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

I'd call with AK, JJ+.
It's kind of better not knowing your cards :P.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Well yeah obviously you call with that. But what does hero have?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

To rephrase the question, what range of hands should I call here with?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

JJ-AA,AK like someone already pointed out.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Way out of my league, but I'll take a stab.

One factor you don't mention is when the blinds will go up. (And I can't remember if they are going to 75/150 or 100/200.) The sooner and the steeper the blinds will increase, the wider my calling range becomes.

I'm assuming that you don't much care about the $65, or even the $650? For first you need chips, and can't wait around for Aces. It's great that you are the best player at the table, but you need chips to play that way. I'll widen my calling out to: 88+, AJ+, but I'd rather have the 88.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

99+, AQ(s)+

go for gold

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

I think i'd be calling w/ TT+, AJs+.

i don't have time to pokerstove that against his probably range, but those hands 'feel' right.

It's shorthanded, and your stack and his stack aren't deep, and for all intensive purposes it's winner take all.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Way out of my league, but I'll take a stab.

One factor you don't mention is when the blinds will go up. (And I can't remember if they are going to 75/150 or 100/200.) The sooner and the steeper the blinds will increase, the wider my calling range becomes.

I'm assuming that you don't much care about the $65, or even the $650? For first you need chips, and can't wait around for Aces. It's great that you are the best player at the table, but you need chips to play that way. I'll widen my calling out to: 88+, AJ+, but I'd rather have the 88.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good question on the blinds. They just moved to 50/100. They will go to 75/150 in about 10 minutes so there's plenty of play at this level.

I want to make the most profitable decision and that takes into consideration the entire prize pool. That doesn't mean I'm waiting for a huge hand to make a play here. And in fact I've been the most aggressive at the table for a couple of orbits now. But at the same time I'm not looking to make a bone head move just for the possibility to double up and join the ranks of the larger stacks.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

I would call with 99+ but nothing less than AK...I have had too many experiences when I get all in with AQ and am completly dominated by AK...its a bad spot to be in. I like the chance of a coin flip in this situation though. Villain turn over QQ?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

I'm assuming your playing for first here (willing to forego the 65 or even 650$ for a shot at the 12K), under those conditions chips gained are more valuable than chips lost, so my calling range is wider than it otherwise might be.

I'm calling with TT+/AQ+

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

AA-TT, maybe 99 depending on the player, AK-AQo, AK-AQs, I think about AJs as well depending on player. If the $650 doesn't matter to you then I call with 99-77 and AJs no matter the player and hope to double through.
~Justin

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming your playing for first here

[/ QUOTE ]
See my post above. Again, I'm wanting to make the most profitable decision that takes into consideration the ENTIRE prize pool. There is obviously a very top heavy payout. But $650 is $650 and it's better than $0 or $65. So yes, I'm playing for first but that doesn't mean you ignore the $650.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

exactly, J's or better, AK.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the $650 doesn't matter to you then I call with 99-77 and AJs no matter the player and hope to double through.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a little too wide. Even if you're just playing for first and need to make a move soon you have to respect the gap concept and I don't think UTG is pushing here with such a wide range that you can afford to make a call here with 77-88.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

My range here would be pretty damn tight. JJ+ and AKs.

Even if the 65 and 650 doesn't matter to you I feel that the 99 and TT here just wouldn't be enough. I'm putting his range at 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ (too loose/tight?) so with jj+ and aks that would give me:

3,041,051,904 games 6.468 secs 470,168,816 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 64.0403 % 62.18% 01.86% { JJ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 35.9597 % 34.10% 01.86% { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

The open push makes me lean toward QQ-88, AK, AQ as his range, with 99, 88, AQ slightly less likely.

Given that there's still some play left in the level and that CO might wake up with a hand good enough to come along for a three-way allin, I would fold TT and AQ.

AK, JJ-AA

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

my gut says AA-99 AQs+. I dont like calling with AQo here cause I think we see PPs and AK much more than lower aces and KQ.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The open push makes me lean toward QQ-88, AK, AQ as his range, with 99, 88, AQ slightly less likely.

Given that there's still some play left in the level and that CO might wake up with a hand good enough to come along for a three-way allin, I would fold TT and AQ.

AK, JJ-AA

[/ QUOTE ]

With an open push and a short stack I think his conceivable range could be Any PP - AK-AT, KQ
~Justin

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

KQ for an almost 12x shove UTG? thats a stretch dont you think?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Meant to have an 's' next to it. Depending on the player I think it is def possible.
~Justin

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

if he didnt say play has tightened up id prolly agree... but as it stands, I think its a mistake to include that in his range.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

so first thing to answer is the range you put him on - if he opened and pushed utg its a good hand but not necessarily one of the top - think you can count out aa, kk. could see him pushing with any pocket pari 7s and up and ak through aj. My gut says this feels like a TT or JJ push.

so to call id need TT or higher, ak or aq s

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

I just did a huge analysis w/ manual pokerstove calculations vs. various ranges and the session fuking expired and I lost it all. Goddamn i am so pissed.

Here's the jist:

I gave him a tight range: AA-99, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs (discounting 99 by 1/2)
and it was pretty clear that your calling range is AA-JJ, AK.

I gave him a medium tight range of: AA-99, AK-AJ, KQ and it looks like that calling w/ TT and AQ would be maringaly +ev, but you should probably still fold due to table circumstances (better player, stealing blinds, players left to act, etc...)

I then gave him what I would call a 'reasonable' range that might be looser than what you had him on: AA-66, AK-AJ, KQ and you should now definitely call w/ TT and AQ.


So, choose your range.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

UTG has slightly over 11 BB's. Raising 3-4 times the BB is just pointless in this situaton. I think his range is much better than some of you are giving him credit for. IMO he could make this push easy with AKs JJ-AA. Without a pair im not calling with anything less than unless he has been doing this frequently, but hero said he hadnt seen him open like this UTG yet. I give villain a little more credit.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Without anything less than AK unless I have a pair of nines or better. Sorry left that part out of the above post.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
(discounting 99 by 1/2)

[/ QUOTE ]

how'd you do that on Pokerstove? just make a 9 a dead card?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(discounting 99 by 1/2)

[/ QUOTE ]

how'd you do that on Pokerstove? just make a 9 a dead card?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't have pokerstove, i do all the math in my head.
<font color="white"> just kidding, i set up a quick excel spreadsheet </font>

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

you did see the white text, right?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

Aha! no i did not.

Alright, makes sense now.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(discounting 99 by 1/2)

[/ QUOTE ]

how'd you do that on Pokerstove? just make a 9 a dead card?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't have pokerstove, i do all the math in my head.
<font color="white"> just kidding, i set up a quick excel spreadsheet </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone Bow Down

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

TT+, AKs.
I auto-muck AQ.

A push like this can be from a reasonable range of strong hands. Certainly 66-TT would do this.... not wanting to put a 1/3 of their stack in with a standard raise and be guaranteed to see overs. On the same line, QQ-AA likely would raise to 300-400, knowing that their chips are going in regardless.

In my experience against fairly tight players, this is AK or a decent pocket pair. I want to be calling with a slightly better range than that.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
TT+, AKs.
I auto-muck AQ.

A push like this can be from a reasonable range of strong hands. Certainly 66-TT would do this.... not wanting to put a 1/3 of their stack in with a standard raise and be guaranteed to see overs. On the same line, QQ-AA likely would raise to 300-400, knowing that their chips are going in regardless.

In my experience against fairly tight players, this is AK or a decent pocket pair. I want to be calling with a slightly better range than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, so we'll give him a range of 66-TT, AK.

Still wanna muck 99?

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

(700th post, so I hope this makes sense [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[ QUOTE ]

I gave him a tight range: AA-99, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs (discounting 99 by 1/2)
and it was pretty clear that your calling range is AA-JJ, AK.

I gave him a medium tight range of: AA-99, AK-AJ, KQ and it looks like that calling w/ TT and AQ would be maringaly +ev, but you should probably still fold due to table circumstances (better player, stealing blinds, players left to act, etc...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Although ranges are of course important, I think this particualr problem requires consideration of the fact that this is a satellite and Hero is essentially playing for first.

I still like calling with TT/AQ, because, as I described in my first reply, doesn't the payout structure mean chips gained are more valuable than chips lost? Accordingly, I like the marginal call here.

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

KneeCo is touching on the most important factor. This is not a normally structured MTT. LLoyd wants 1st and nothing else really matters, to him it is winner take all. This should not only open up UTGs range but it should dramatically open up Lloyd's calling range as well.
~Justin

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
(700th post, so I hope this makes sense [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[ QUOTE ]

I gave him a tight range: AA-99, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs (discounting 99 by 1/2)
and it was pretty clear that your calling range is AA-JJ, AK.

I gave him a medium tight range of: AA-99, AK-AJ, KQ and it looks like that calling w/ TT and AQ would be maringaly +ev, but you should probably still fold due to table circumstances (better player, stealing blinds, players left to act, etc...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Although ranges are of course important, I think this particualr problem requires consideration of the fact that this is a satellite and Hero is essentially playing for first.

I still like calling with TT/AQ, because, as I described in my first reply, doesn't the payout structure mean chips gained are more valuable than chips lost? Accordingly, I like the marginal call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

the conventional wisdowm is that chips lost are always more valuable than chips gained in non-winner-take-all. this is closer to WTA than most MTT, so you should be willing to take gambles with only slight edges (where you need a bigger edge in a normal mtt and none in a wta, if skills are equal).

Re: PCA DSO Hand - 5 left - Do I make the call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
KneeCo is touching on the most important factor. This is not a normally structured MTT. LLoyd wants 1st and nothing else really matters, to him it is winner take all. This should not only open up UTGs range but it should dramatically open up Lloyd's calling range as well.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

but there is still 'go broke, go home' to consider (i can't believe i just typed that). If he feels that he can assert his edge with less risk later on, then he shouldn't be taking -EV gambles at this stage. If the blinds were doubled, then you might have a point since he might not find a situation that is "only slightly -EV" in the next few hand.

Also, it's always about ranges. It's what decision you make after determining the range that you have other implications.

<u>LLoyd wants 1st and nothing else really matters, to him it is winner take all.</u>

not according to him.

<u>This should not only open up UTGs range </u>

i think that was taken into account.