2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Party 2/4 6-max. Villain is in his first hand at the table and sat with $400. UTG limps, 1 fold, I make it $16 with QQ in CO, button calls, villain calls, UTG calls.

Flop comes TT7r and BB openpushes into a ~$60 pot. UTG folds and its on me (I cover the table). Button has ~$520 and is yet to act.

Your action?

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Fold fold fold.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold fold fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
because he has......

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Disconect!

-SmileyEH

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Got to fold. So many people will do this with 77 to stack a ten, or he might just have a ten and is hoping you have aces and think he's crazy. Sometimes he will be crazy, but it's too much to risk here without seeing him play first.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Tx or 77. Why would he ever bluff here with 3 people behind him? He's hoping you have AA/KK and can't lay it down.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

I fold because I think hes ahead of QQ more times than he is not. Maybe hes a donkey who likes to play AA-KK this way, maybe 77, maybe Tx. Sure, JJ and 98 is possible, but they are more unlikely imo.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

What if I held AA instead? Still a fold?

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Uh, probably, because that adds two hands to the other side of the range that we are beating + they also make more sense in a desperate sort of way.

77 or Tx wants to extract $ here but stupor pushes like this are often a sign of someone trying to protect their hand, so KK-JJ make more sense.

When you have QQ this only makes sense for one hand that you are beating; JJ. Even still, I'm not sure if I would call w/ AA.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Why do you rule out pairs below JJ? If he's called here, whether he has JJ or 66 is almost irrelevant (as there are almost no hands between those that call-- I can't imagine he's got JJ expecting 99 to call, for example). A lot of the time, this sort of play is a middling pair looking to force out overcards.

This argument is primarily academic. I think it is a fold (with QQ for sure, barely with AA) but I think its closer than others seem to.