Close enough to freerolling?
 

MP is a LAG with stats like 50/30/1.5 over 1000 hands. In this time he has demonstrated a lack of understanding of domination, position, and hand value relative to board texture.

BB is much worse - 85/6/1.3 over around 100 hands. The LAG has been isolating him liberally, and his aggression factor is probably as much from folding as it is from betting and raising. However he certainly doesn't seem to be above a bluff every now then. I figure his bet on the turn is A-high, a flush draw, a pocket pair, or trips, with the latter being least likely (based on hand distribution). I have two overcards and the nutflush draw, should I raise it up?

Empire Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="green">Hero?</font>

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

I would just call here. Trips on this board is now a boat, leaving you drawing dead (or to 2outs for a split). He's not folding anything that's ahead of you and you can't protect your hand even if it is best.

Surf

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

If you raise and are 3bet, its a fold, right? Doesnt calling turn and river cost the same amount? Just an idea

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

yes. raise/fold.


hmm i think i changed my mind since MP just called. i dont think he does this without A high, and that makes it a lot less likely that BB has an A.

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise and are 3bet, its a fold, right? Doesnt calling turn and river cost the same amount? Just an idea

[/ QUOTE ]

You simply can't fold to a 3-bet here. That's a huge mistake.

That's a big pot (especially after it goes for 3bets) and you've got a draw to the nut flush.

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

I am certain that I am either ahead of or chopping with the LAG. I would have heard from a winning hand from him by now. It's possible he has quads and might slowplay them like this, but otherwise I am confident he would have shown me more action with an overpair and probably even AK. So if I were headsup with him it would be a clear raise to me.

I gave my approximate hand range for the third player - he is seeing nearly every flop. If he is semi-bluffing (likely) he is almost never 3-betting, so I am unlikely to have to throw up in my own mouth in that event (edit: thanks to JoshuaD for showing me why folding is bad even if 3-bet). If he was betting a pocket pair I have 15 outs in a 3-way pot. I also stand a chance to fold another ace (fearing trips), or get them to put more bets in when I hit my flush and it is good. Calling down doesn't have these advantages.

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

[ QUOTE ]
trips, with the latter being least likely because it is impossible on this board

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

As for what to do. . .I think I would just call this down. Not really able to articulate great reasons for it, but I can't see this raise having enough value. I might be totally wrong though.

Edit: Goddam I am slow - about 8 replies before me.

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you raise and are 3bet, its a fold, right? Doesnt calling turn and river cost the same amount? Just an idea

[/ QUOTE ]

You simply can't fold to a 3-bet here. That's a huge mistake.

That's a big pot (especially after it goes for 3bets) and you've got a draw to the nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

you might want to look at the board again.

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

I'd probably fold, but raising appears much better than calling.

edit - given you're read on BB, yeah I like raising

Re: Close enough to freerolling?
 

BB would usually go for a checkraise with a five or a nine full house. He's probably got a weaker ace or flush draw than yours. Raise it up.