Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

live tourney-- 5 hands into a final table. I had no prior experience playing either of the two in question, as we had been at different tables all night.

Roughly 45K total chips. I am in 3rd or 4th place with approx. 5500; one stack is about 7500 and another 8500. Tourney pays 4, but needless to say, i am not playing for 4th place.

Blinds 300-600.

I am UTG and dealt AKo. Previous initial raise at this blind level had been 1500. I raise to 2000.

Fold to MP2, who has biggest stack-- he calls;

Fold to SB, who is short stacked with about 3800 chips. He pushes all-in.

I call, big stack calls.

Flop is 3 rags with two clubs. I check, big stack puts me all in. i call.

Hands shown; me with AKo; big stack with AKclubs; Small blind with QQ.

You know where this is going, right?

No ace, no king, no queen, club on the river and big stack knocks us both out.

Critique my play.

I could have limped, but at that stage I wanted to isolate somebody or steal the pot, and not get into a multi-handed pot.

I could have folded after the QQ went all-in, but I was pot committed and that call still left me with 1700 chips. I read him for a smaller pair so I knew it was pretty much a coin flip. i read big boy for AK or AQ all the way-- and even with the threat of a flush draw, i don't see how I fold after he pushed me.

Thoughts??

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am in 3rd or 4th place with approx. 5500

Blinds 300-600.

I am UTG and dealt AKo. Previous initial raise at this blind level had been 1500. I raise to 2000.

Fold to MP2, who has biggest stack-- he calls;

Fold to SB, who is short stacked with about 3800 chips. He pushes all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

You have ~10bb and could have just pushed. Your raise represented ~35% of your stack. Once the other guy goes all-in after your call and a raise, I don't like just calling. That's over half your stack in the middle here. Just put the rest in and try to isolate.

I really don't see how 1) all three of you get your money in and 2) you go broke in this spot.

You eventually got it all in and I guess the result ended up being the same. There was so much in the pot that you couldn't fold and leave yourself with the last 1700 or so even when you're probably drawing to 6 outs at best.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

fair enough, but if I had pushed pre-flop, I'm 99% certain result would have been same.

If I had pushed big boy after QQ went all-in, I'm 99.9% certain result would have been same. Might he have put me on AA or KK? I sincerely doubt it.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

You're being results oriented... It doesn't matter whether things would have been the same. What we're saying is that these are the best plays for the situation. You should have open-pushed. When you didn't, you should have put your stack in once the other guy pushed.

Gavin

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

I disagree with the open push.

Most likely result of that move is that I get called by smaller pair from a short stack. Or simply steal the pot. And if it's earlier in table than one of the big stacks, might get a second caller playing pot odds.

Whereas the likely result of the bet I made is a call with another Ace-hand (which happened, of course) or perhaps a smaller pair. I can still get out of that hand after the flop. I couldn't if I opened with a push.

Having said that, i think you are right about my call post QQ pushing-- at that point it was as likely that big stack had an ace with a smaller kicker-- suited-- as it was that he had AKsuited.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

dude, this is such an easy open push. this is not even debatable.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

You became pot committed at any rate, even only putting in 35% of ur stack in on the raise and then eventually going all in. If u push Pre-flop u aren't left with having to make bad decisions like putting the rest of ur chips in Post-flop after 3 rags come and ur confident that ur against a pocket pair. Post-flop that gives u a 25% chance to hit and win the pot, which isn't exactly optimal. Plus in this situation, stealing the blinds is not a bad thing, confrontation is overrated with large blinds. Thats why the correct move is the push PreFlop.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

OK, let's revisit.

I'm UTG in a 9 handed table. Dealt AKo.

Odds are remote that someone else has AK, and even more remote that it would be suited.

Odds are good that someone has Ax.

Odds are remote that someone has QQ or JJ.

Odds are decent that someone has a pair, and it will probably be a shorter stack than me.

Odds of neither of the above occurring-- Ax or a pair-- are probably in the range of 1/5.

So if I push from the get-go, I'd say 20% of the time I steal the blinds. That's an EV of 180 (900 x .20)

Another 20% of the time, there's an ace or a pair, but no call. That's an EV of 180.

60% of the time I am called-- let's call it 30% with just a pair, 20% of the time with Ax or another top hand such as KQ suited, 10% with both. Of the latter, the odds of the precise scenario (or even JJ instead of QQ) I was hit with tonight are probably no better than 1 in 200.

I'm a slight dog to the pair-- and it will be a short stack (say average 4000K) the vast majority of the time.

45% x 4000 x .30= EV 540

55% x 4000 x .30= EV Minus 660 (and of course occasionally I will be knocked out of the tournament.

I'm now up 240 in EV.

20% of the time I'm called with an Ax or KQ suited. I'm a pretty big favorite here-- let's say 2 to 1 on average. A bit more likely that the big stacks play here, so let's round up the net gain to 5000.

5000 X .66 x .20= EV 666

5000 X .33 X .20= Minus EV of 333

I'm now up 573.

And finally in the double situation-- 10% of the time-- I'm about 35% (occasionally a big stack will be on pot odds without an ace or a pair) to win the hand. And now you must round up the money wagered even more to 5200, given the greater likelihood of a big stack playing. But I could nearly double up.

SO:

.10 x .33 x 9500 EV 317

.10 x .66 x 5200 Minus EV of 343

I'm up 547 with an open push.


Playing it my way obviously it will often lead to the same result. I think i steal the pot almost as much as above. I think I face a multiple pot more, perhaps nearly twice as much.

The question is:

can I avoid a defeat (and possibly a knockout) more easily in the heads-up situations by playing the flop better?? And can I still get an opponent in if an ace or king hits on the flop? I'm too tired to do that set of calculations-- if someone can show me that my EV is worse that way, I'll concede the point. Remember that defeat means knockout.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Roughly 45K total chips. I am in 3rd or 4th place with approx. 5500; one stack is about 7500 and another 8500. Tourney pays 4, but needless to say, i am not playing for 4th place.

Blinds 300-600.

I am UTG and dealt AKo. Previous initial raise at this blind level had been 1500. I raise to 2000.

Fold to MP2, who has biggest stack-- he calls;

Fold to SB, who is short stacked with about 3800 chips. He pushes all-in.

I call,

big stack calls.

[/ QUOTE ]





Let's count the errors, shall we.

At least the SB played his hand correctly.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

I agree with Gavin on this one. Open push is the way to go here given the stack size.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

well again not to beat a dead horse but I'm not at all convinced that the initial bet was a mistake.

I agree that with AK suited and more chips, BB should have pushed me.

But he didnt-- now the short stack call must be a pair or he's doing something insane like going all in on AQ or AJ suited. My call is a coin flip and with more than half of his bet already committed, I ain't folding. But why push? I've gone back and forth on this one. By not pushing I do preserve my ability to play in the tournament beyond this hand if the a or k dont hit in nearly every likely situation save the one that actually happened. By pushing I may be able to back down a bigger stack if he's playing something less than AK. But the all-in bet itself should have done that, if it was even possible given his stack size. What more good am i doing besides increasing the odds I get knocked out??

The flip is that if my read on big stack was correct, and he was also playing an ace-- very likely AK-- then the one situation that did arise-- two flush scare cards-- should have caused me to consider backing away. But that pot committed and with him needing a draw on the turn and river?

So again the hand was pretty much inevitable any way you slice it. If I made a mistake it was the initial bet-- not poushing-- though obviously in this case it wouldn't have changed anything.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

you reduce your odds of beating a small PP from 50% to 30% when you dont ensure that you see the turn and the river. you lose a lot of equity by doing that, especially since there are very very few hands that will call you raise but not your all-in that help your equity.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

[ QUOTE ]

But he didnt-- now the short stack call must be a pair or he's doing something insane like going all in on AQ or AJ suited. My call is a coin flip and with more than half of his bet already committed, I ain't folding.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sure



[ QUOTE ]
But why push? I've gone back and forth on this one. By not pushing I do preserve my ability to play in the tournament beyond this hand if the a or k dont hit...

[/ QUOTE ]


No you don't. You're talking about check-folding a missed flop with what could very likely be the best hand and leaving yourself with slightly <3BB (t1700) only to take the BB on the following hand. I'm sorry, but that doesn't leave the best posters on this forum the ability to play on. You're delusional (sp?) if you think it does that for you.

Then, to further the point. In the heat of battle, you don't even check-fold the miss... you call anyway (correctly btw, tho your reasoning would argue otherwise).

If you move in over SB's push, you give the big stack an opportunity to make a bad fold. Maybe in a moment of insanity, he'll see the two pushes and decide to cut his losses at t2000. Unlikely, but it's got to be a better option than your line.




[ QUOTE ]
By pushing I may be able to back down a bigger stack if he's playing something less than AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do, that's fine you can play for his 2000. If you don't, isn't that a good thing?



[ QUOTE ]
What more good am i doing besides increasing the odds I get knocked out??

[/ QUOTE ]


Again, in this example, there is no way that you can play poker if you check-fold the flop. Sure, maybe you'll be dealt a big hand in the blinds that holds up, but I'll take my chances here.



[ QUOTE ]
So again the hand was pretty much inevitable any way you slice it... though obviously in this case it wouldn't have changed anything.

[/ QUOTE ]


This much is correct. You were going bust on this hand no matter what. But as Gavin already pointed out, it is still important to play the hand correctly for the times that it does make a difference.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can still get out of that hand after the flop. I couldn't if I opened with a push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Except, as you found out, you probably can't. Certainly you didn't in this case.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
But why push? I've gone back and forth on this one. By not pushing I do preserve my ability to play in the tournament beyond this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

But you didn't preserve your ability to play in the tourney after this hand. Your argument only makes sense if you are weak/smart enough to let go of the hand after the call and all-in after your initial action. If you are going to call off your money and marry the hand regardless, you may as well have just pushed to begin with.

A push, would maximize your folding equity, and isolation chances. It would also insure you are getting maximum suckout opportunity in case you are called by a pocket pair. When the blinds are more than 10% of your stack, it is ok to take it down PF if thats what happens. Putting in 1/3 of your stack leaves you with little manuvering room, and just about pot commits you.

Your subsequent call of the all-in was even worse for the same reasons. Again the preserving chips argument doesn't hold up if you will just call them off in the hand.

You say your read on the big stack is correct, but you are calling off all of your chips for at best a split pot, at worst a lose. Something is not correct with this picture.

And I am not advocating a fold, I am just saying that based on your arguments, you should have folded.

JMHO

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

you are right about the blinds. Half my stack is going away in the next two hands.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

Thanks, everyone.

One more wrinkle.

My read of the big stack-- he called my original bet, and didn't push-- was that he was playing an ace from the get go.

My read of the small blind was that he was playing a pair.

Does the fact that the big stack now takes an ace out of play (and a king, too, as it turned out), which obviously lessens my chance at a straight win over the pair while increasing the chance of a chop, make a fold after the SB push the proper action? I still have 65% of my chips-- more than enough to compete with. If we both have aces-- and if God forbid, we both have AK, our odds of beating QQ have just dropped by one-third-- from 45% or so individually down to less than a third. And with the chop possibility-- which I must allow for at least 50% of the time-- my winnings have been cut down to 1900-- bet 3500 to make 7400???

Perhaps my original bet was a mistake. But now I'm wondering if once I made it the proper move was to get out of the hand.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

Yes, and I said as much in my post. The only reason to not push, is if you are able to get away from the hand. If you are not able to get away, just push.

Knowing some of your outs are gone, and that you are likely behind in a coin flip, and at best playing for a split pot, makes a PF fold of AKo against a cold caller and an all-in reraise close to absolutely correct.

Re: Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My read of the small blind was that he was playing a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a nitpick, but I don't see how you can put SB precisely on a pair when he is shortstacked and you have no prior experience playing with him.