This is an ace every single time
 

Villain is 28/21/1.7 after 8k hands. I am even good here 1 in 6??

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6 BB

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

Um, definetly.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

by definitely you mean definitely close right?

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

yeah this should be a clear call..
he has a Q, a 8, a pp or a worse K here alot of the time.

edit: is this close? why?..

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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by definitely you mean definitely close right?

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I don't. I think it is an easy call. SB could be trying to valuebet his Q or K often enough. I am not saying he is making the right move, I just think he does it more than 1 in 6. He could also be stupid, and trying some bluff move that will never work with crap.

Edit: SB could easily be reading hero for some sort of medium PP which would make him want to do this.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

It also looks like middle/small pockets or busted flush draw that got frisky after your turn check. I call the river.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

you do realize its kind of weird for villain to be peeling this flop with Qx right? unless he has a flush draw or is a stupid chaser its too weird for him to have Kx or Qx

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

a flush draw that he doesn't checkraise, donk, or do something similarly donky with

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

i think most players checkraise flush draws with those types of stats. id like more reads on the villain than what i have. if hes a pure unknown with those stats id call for information. if i think he would checkraise the flop with an ace id call, if i think he might not (which is usually the case) i would often fold. if he would checkraise the flop with a flush draw id often fold. if i dont think hes peeling this flop with Kx id often fold. if i dont think hes betting the river with a marginal pair id often fold.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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you do realize its kind of weird for villain to be peeling this flop with Qx right? unless he has a flush draw or is a stupid chaser its too weird for him to have Kx or Qx

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I don't think it is weird. I find that alot of people who try to steal preflop like this, peel quiet often.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

It's blind vs blind and you checked the turn. You gotta call it getting 6-1. He could easily be on a medium pair or maybe queen but it's probably as likely he has nothing. Hell, seemingly regular players refuse to fold on the flop after raising in these heads up blind wars just to show they can't be pushed around.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

i see your logic but i dont think it matters, im never folding this.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

I agree it's a call. Out of curiosity, how often do you think I am good? I would say 1 in 4.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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I agree it's a call. Out of curiosity, how often do you think I am good? I would say 1 in 4.

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How did you come up with this number? Was it an intuitive guess, or did you do some math? If you want to, you can instead of guessing the final result, guess how he might play certain hands with a certain percentage, and than figure out from those hypothesis how often you are good. I think this is a fairly simple way to get a more accurate guestimate.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

a guess, I'm too lazy and don't care enough to do any sort of math. Also when you do math for this sort of stuff it all depends on your assumptions so it's not that accurate.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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a guess, I'm too lazy and don't care enough to do any sort of math

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Thats too bad. You would probably learn something and increase your hourly income.


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Also when you do math for this sort of stuff it all depends on your assumptions so it's not that accurate.

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I agree it is only as accurate as your assumptions. That said it, it is far more accurate than if you just make a guess of how good you are without thinking about hand ranges and probability of those hand ranges.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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Thats too bad. You would probably learn something and increase your hourly income.


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I've probably done this sort of math stuff hundreds of times. Thanks for the advice on increasing my hourly income though.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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Thats too bad. You would probably learn something and increase your hourly income.


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I've probably done this sort of math stuff hundreds of times. Thanks for the advice on increasing my hourly income though.

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Sorry for acting snide. I just that doing minor math here is better than throwing out some seamingly random number such as 4:1, or guessing whether we are getting the necessary 6:1. If you have done the math so many times, it shouldn't be that much of a hassle to do it one more time.

I don't mean to sound harsh, if I am, but I just think that easy math is fairly skipped over, even when it doesn't take all that much time, but can help immensely.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

It's ok. You say the math is easy and it is. The problem is all I have is his pokertracker stats and this is a sb vs. hu situation. His range his huge and I really have no idea how he'd play a lot of hands. My assumptions would be too contrived to be useful IMO. Saying "yea, I think he would checkraise hand XX here 30% of the time" is not gonna help me.

This sort of math is most useful when you can narrow your opponent's hand range down more and when you have a good idea how they would play certain hands. Like if you're against a preflop capper. In these hands I think it is a waste of time. I actually think my "1 in 4" guess is more accurate then any answer I'd arrive at using math. I have a pretty decent idea of how often I'm good here from playing hundreds of thousands of hands. If I look at the situation more specifically using math, my answer will become increasingly inaccurate because I really have no idea how often he checkraises mid pair on the flop for example. I have a much better idea of how often I'm good with this board, against this sort of player, with this overall action.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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It's ok. You say the math is easy and it is. The problem is all I have is his pokertracker stats and this is a sb vs. hu situation. His range his huge and I really have no idea how he'd play a lot of hands. My assumptions would be too contrived to be useful IMO. Saying "yea, I think he would checkraise hand XX here 30% of the time" is not gonna help me.

This sort of math is most useful when you can narrow your opponent's hand range down more and when you have a good idea how they would play certain hands. Like if you're against a preflop capper. In these hands I think it is a waste of time. I actually think my "1 in 4" guess is more accurate then any answer I'd arrive at using math.

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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better. If you have can't estimate how often he would play a low ace the way he is, how often the way he is playing a PP the way he is, how often he is playing a set the way he is, how often he is playing 48o the way he is, then it is very hard to estimate how good we are on the river. We will never be able to perfectly estimate how he plays any hands, but we should try to get as good a guess as we can. If you are off by 50%, so be it, but that is better than just not including a hand at all in your estimate and saying 0%. The math may be a bit complicated, but I believe it is definetly doable for anyone who would give it a shot. If noone does it by tomorrow, I will probably attempt it.

Edit: I do think it is good to guess what you think is right though. I would think that this is an easy call, but I hope that the math shows it goes the other way, so that I can plug a potential leak.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

sorry but i think using the math you are trying to use here is ridiculous.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better.

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I'm playing poker for 13 years, and my educated guesses are far from random.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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sorry but i think using the math you are trying to use here is ridiculous.

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Any answer uses some type of math, whether formal or not. I didn't even explain my method I was going to use. Unless we are guessing a completely random number, we must use some sort of math. I guess if you have run across this type of situation over and over again, you might be able to estimate it on past experiences, but I definetly can't do that. If others can, that is wonderful, and I hope they share their anecdotal evidence. I just think that the amount of trials in this type of situation we have had is not enough for an accurate answer. I do believe there is some form of math that can solve this using a few assumptions. Whether or not we agree on those assumptions is a different topic.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better.

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I'm playing poker for 13 years, and my educated guesses are far from random.

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Sorry. Random wasn't the word I was looking for, which was why I put it in quotes. I just couldn't figure out a better word to use. What I meant was that while going by your gut, and what you are used to is good, sometimes the "obvious" isn't always right. A ton of stuff we know we just take for granted, and it is right, and we know it is right. But there is also stuff which we think is right, but we don't actually know the numbers behind it, and we may be wrong. I think using math when it is available to us is a good way to check our educated guesses.

I agree that the math here may be a bit hard, and will use a lot of estimations. I don't think that using these estimations is bad though, because we are going to have to use estimations no matter what. I would just rather have them closer to the source of the problem then at a general level.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better.

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Just [censored] guess. We aren't going to sit here and calculate how good we are every single time this comes up against an unknown opponent. If it's close then it probably doesn't matter what you do and to decide I think about what I did last time and do the opposite. This kind of thinking is what's really hurting your hourly earn, not refusing to solve stupid math problems.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

Doesn't it all work together?

Very simply put, a guy who's playing for 30 years and never uses math will have a much more accurate guess than a math geek who's been playing for 3 months.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better.

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Just [censored] guess. We aren't going to sit here and calculate how good we are every single time this comes up against an unknown opponent. If it's close then it probably doesn't matter what you do and to decide I think about what I did last time and do the opposite.

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I disagree with this mentality. If something's EV is roughly 0, it doesn't really matter all that much what we do, but in most cases the EV is not 0. There is usually an edge one way or the other, it just appears too complicated, so it too hard for us to say which way it goes. When this happens, we usually just simplify, and go one way or the other. While this isn't awful, I think we can learn if we figure out that one way may be quite a bit more profitable than the other. I am not saying that is necessarily the case here, I am just saying that it might be the case.

I think a perfect example is a hand earlier today where we raised preflop with QTo, and the flop was something like 259. It was bet into us, and we were asked what to do. Plenty of people said call, plenty said fold, plenty said raise. It is probably pretty close, and pretty hard to figure out what the best answer is, but I bet there is indeed a best answer, and that if we could figure it out, we should be doing it every time.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

Spicy - math is good and often underutilized in some analyses here. However, you're trying to pencil out (Excel-out) an equation with XXX variables, each of which has x- XX% probability. Not only is the equation incredibly complicated due to the number of variables, but the output is entirely dependent on the assumptions we assign to each variable (which helps in part to derive the XX%). With nothing solid upon which to base the assumptions, and with the number of variables at play, penciling this out is not a productive use of time. This is one of many situations in which experience trumps a disinterested look at the euqations we might build.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

Meh. I guess I will give up now, as I seem to not only be in the minority, but the only one who agrees with myself. I agree with the fact that our assumptions could potentially change everything. It is awesome though when we come up with an equation, and our results show that even when we change our assumptions pretty drastically (within reason), our decision stays the same. This will not always be the same. Often a decision will swing one way or the other depending on how passive or agressive someone is, and how we assume they will play bottom or middle pair. All I am saying is that possibly we could be shown that one option (calling, folding) could be quite a bit better than the other.

Experience is great, I agree, and for the most part there are some really awesome people here who are just that good at knowing intuitively how good they are. I just also think that there are some cases where intuitively people "know" the answer, but in fact they are wrong. I don't know if this is the case here, but I think it could be.

I will stop arguing this point for now. Tomorrow I will attempt to do some math, and then you can all yell at me when you don't like the numbers I put up.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

http://www.erikjernberg.com/archives/kool_aid.jpg

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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With nothing solid upon which to base the assumptions, and with the number of variables at play, penciling this out is not a productive use of time.

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Sorry, I had to respond one more time for this. We do have something solid to base our assumptions on. It is the same things we base our "how good are we on the river" assumption on. Sure, we can't be perfectly accurate, but we can try to do as best we can.

As for the "not a productive use of our time", it may not be for you, but I for one have way too much free time, and considering this will probably take less than half an hour (probably less than 10 minutes, but I dunno), it doesn't really phase me. If the results turn out something different then expected, this could increase your winrate by .05 BB/100, which, if you are playing 4 tables of $10/20, means an extra $3.6 every hour you play. If you are playng 20 hours a week, after 1 month, we have made $288 on our initial half hour of investment (if it even is half an hour, I think it is probably less). After that, it even more money as we play.

Sure, our results may end up proving nothing, or being too complicated to even come close to the right answer. But I think if we start doing this often enough, we will stumble upon some pretty interesting things that are a bit counter-intuitive, and we will increase our winrates by enough to have a substantial reward for the effort.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

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Doesn't it all work together?

Very simply put, a guy who's playing for 30 years and never uses math will have a much more accurate guess than a math geek who's been playing for 3 months.

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No [censored] way his memory is that perfect he can remember which is the best. Ofc he counts his outs, checks the pot, think a little about villains range and makes a decision. Its not a gut feeling. He uses math. Ofc he takes in this information extremely quick but its not a gut feeling.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

We will have to agree to disagree on the utility of the exercise.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

this certainly could be spades, an 8, a deuce, or a pocket pair. very niec board to bluff on considering you checked through the turn

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

when i first read this hand, i thought this was insanity. then i realized you really aren't good much if at all. the only hands i see him have that don't have an ace are (if hes aggro enough to raise) K8 Q8 J8 98 T8, (K8 and Q8 beat u btw). I think a plain 8 check calls this, knowing he cant get a better hand to fold ever(btw i think pp does the same). You do beat some randomass holdings that decided to call the flop with T9 high. But this has to be severely discounted even in HU situations. (and if u have reads this can be completely eliminated). So what hands can he have here. I see QJ, Kx, and the rare times he has spades. I have no idea how often you are good here, but i want to say worse than 1 in 4.

Re: This is an ace every single time
 

I think you would get c/r'd on the flop if he had a flush draw on a pocket pair, trying to push you off your hand. Hence, with just the smooth call and he's not trying to get you off your hand, i think an Ace here is very likely. Still, i call the river, sad day.