Shorting party poker
 

Free money in the long term, no?

Number one reason being that incredible growth is already priced in and certainly not sustainable.

Re: Shorting party poker
 

I see what your saying but it will skyrocket the first few months just like google.

Re: Shorting party poker
 

but then after that, i guess you could

Re: Shorting party poker
 

Party Poker is a money making machine. Why would you short a profitable company that is taking in a ton of cash? And even if it stops growing is unlikely to see a decrease in earnings anytime soon.

Here's a secret, short bad compainies not good ones.

Re: Shorting party poker
 

"Here's a secret, short bad compainies not good ones. "

This is terrible advice.

Re: Shorting party poker
 

You might look at World Poker Tour (WPTE).
They didn't turn a profit last quarter
and you have to think this is a favorable
environment.

Re: Shorting party poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Number one reason being that incredible growth is already priced in and certainly not sustainable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably but not sure about that.

From a web site:

Party Poker IPO Article

Upon the announcement that Party Poker's parent, Party Gaming, might pursue a public offering on the London Stock Exchange, financial publications speculated the value of the IPO could be as much as a staggering $10,000,000,000. That number is based on a comparison to Sportingbet PLC. In October 2004, Sportingbet purchased the (at the time) number three online poker cardroom, Paradise Poker, for between 300 and 400 million dollars (depending on performance figures for the next year). At the time of purchase, Sportingbet traded for about 100 on the London Exchange. Only three months later, at the time of the PartyPoker announcement, it was trading at 235.

Since Sportingbet is trading now at about twenty times next year earnings, and PartyGaming is speculated to make in excess of 500 million dollars in 2005, that leads to the ten billion dollar number. That seems a bit high, but still, a Party Gaming IPO should end up between eight and ten billion, immediately establishing it as one of the 100 largest companies on the London Exchange.

Doesn't seem to be incredibly expsensive given a forward looking PE of 20 for next year but that's all I'm going on which admittedly isn't much. If PartyGaming margins are high (which I suspect they are), then I'd say even with increased competition they'll make a lot of money. Not sure about PartyGaming financials at all though. I'll try and find out more. Interesting, nice post and FWIW I commend your use of the 'old noodle' on this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: Shorting party poker
 

You can't short new issues.

Re: Shorting party poker
 

short this if you want to go broke. seriously

other gambling stocks

all my cash is either in those, or my WSOP bankroll. I'm going to hold them through the beginning of the Party IPO (few months) then reevaluate.

been making a killing on these over the past year

Re: Shorting party poker
 

Free money. Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha.

In general...
Shorting stocks is for pros...
And a pro would never, ever short...
A high flying "irrational" tech stock.

It's called "fighting the tape"...
A fight you'll lose 90% of the time.

Other than extremely talented short term momentum traders...
Pros stick to stocks that trade in a rational way...
And build rational "risk arbitrage" positions.

But then you wanna gamble...
Be my guest.

rm+

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