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-   -   Typical river bet? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=286590)

kapw7 07-05-2005 12:28 PM

Typical river bet?
 
After a small break I'm back at 1/2 6max clearing the PP bonus.
CO has a VPIP of 60ish and WSD 29%. Nice guy.
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (2.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP folds, CO calls.

River: (4.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

wireMan 07-05-2005 12:33 PM

Re: Typical river bet?
 
I don't think I could make this play, but it worked nice for you. If you think that CO will fold, then yes it is a good bet. Even so, CO has to be holding a J, K, or A to not split. Nice play.

@bsolute_luck 07-05-2005 12:43 PM

Re: Typical river bet?
 
yup typical river bet. nh.

Disconnected 07-05-2005 01:00 PM

Re: Typical river bet?
 
I might be too results oriented here, but I would think that with a 29% WSD, he's calling too many crap hands, which we don't want here. That's assuming there's enough hands on him for this to be a meaningful stat.

I'd actually like this a little more if you were OOP during the hand, since I could see a 7x hand taking a check flop/bet turn line OOP. (Of course that assumes CO is thinking.)

sholvar 07-05-2005 01:38 PM

Re: Typical river bet?
 
your whole hand is counterfeited and a doublepaired board is very very scary for a low pocket. If he calls your best option is tie, because I dont think that anybody will call the river with such a crap like 23o etc. and in many situations you will loose because you are outkicked or worse. If he raises it is, as you know, not better, and if he folds you won nothin because I dont think that he will fold a (much) better hand.
Thats why bettin the river can have only ONE reason: you want to bluff him out.
And bluffin depends on tells, the psychological aspects of you and your opponent and the rest of all factors on the table. A Handhistory is not 0,001% of what anybody needs to tell you if a bluffbet in your situation had be the right decision.
hm... if you dont know if you can bluff here you have a 50/50 chance to bluff him, but in the bad 50% you will looso IMO one or two bets and in the good 50% you will win more than 4BB. But this 50/50 is only correct over 10thousands of hands like this. You can be +EV if you know more about your enemy.
The rest is experience ^^

Watain 07-05-2005 03:05 PM

Re: Typical river bet?
 
Are 55 normally played under these circumstances?

---

And im not sure i like you turn play. The pot is small and you will not get anyone with 7 or a 10 to fold and defanitly (spelling) not a Q. I generelly think that a winning 6-max player must be doing a lot of bluffing/semibluffing, but i think that there are to many opponent left and the prize is to small when it succeeds.

The river is good since he properbly would have shown aggresion earlier on if he had anything.

A n00bīs perspective

/Torben

edit: agree with sholvar on the river play...


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