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- Medium-Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=54)

- - The Dilemma (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=395887)

New to table, probably 3 orbits. Players are all in the 25-40/10-20 range. Unknown for the most part though.

All the calls here make it look pretty weak. No one is trying to blow out draws, so overpair/set doesn't seem as likely.

Who goes passive and takes the good odds and multiway pot calling the flop bet?

Who goes aggro, making the raise in hopes to take it down and falling back on a monster draw?

Explain your reasoning, I'll explain mine later.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($192.15)
BB ($73.60)
UTG ($402.61)
MP ($223.09)
Hero ($194.80)
Button ($45.05)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, MP raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $4, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($20) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $12, BB calls $12, MP calls $12, Hero raises to $50,

If I dont raise, I cant respect myself in the morning.

make it 65 on the flop, but this is standard and good.

I think it's tempting to raise here... but I think that the pot is small enough that it doesn't matter so much to take it down.

Call. The times you stack someone else who is flushing will more than make up for it.

you need to raise more on that flop. $80 seems good.

I like raising for many reasons. It's pretty likely that you will give yourself a couple of ace outs and you might avoid splitting or losing when you make a straight. It's possible that you will get the made hands to fold, and your ace high may become good. You just have so much value, though, that you want more money in the pot. Raising will mean you are probably committed on the turn, but it will also make it harder for someone to get away after one of your draws hits.

What can a pair of aces do against a hand that calls such a massive flop raise? Check down against pair + OESD/FD?

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It's possible that you will get the made hands to fold

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i don't think this is accurate based on the betting...i think sets or 2 pair are going along for the ride

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I think it's tempting to raise here... but I think that the pot is small enough that it doesn't matter so much to take it down.

Call. The times you stack someone else who is flushing will more than make up for it.

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How about just low-raising or min-raising? You build your pot since other flushes have to call and you can check for a free card on the turn (if it's a blank) if you don't think you can steal the pot with a bet. With the more money in on the turn you're probably more likely to stack a lower flush if it hits.

CALL THE FLOP. You want players sticking around to hit a second-best hand and pay you off. By raising, you are potentially driving out some of these second best hands.

If you do decide to raise, your raise has be capable of taking the pot right there on the flop.

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CALL THE FLOP.

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Put me down for that too. I know you have a huge draw, but you are not going to be happy if someone else reraises and you lose the rest of your customers. Everyone else has some kind of hand or draw, and you're drawing to the nuts.

You can't be that comfortable if you hit your ace, nor the bottom end of your straight (you could be up against one already). And, as mentioned, you don't want to blow out other flush draws.

Raising is not *wrong*, but I think there is a ton of value in just calling, especially since you are last to act.

We can agree, right, that the decision is between raising and calling, right? Folding is out of hte question?

Additionally, I think if you raise, it has to be a big one. I think a pot sized raise is the the right play. The analysis is long.

My initial thoughts were:

I dont think we've paid enough attention to the fact that there's almost definintely another flush draw, or two, out there, and that you're drawing to the bottom end of the straight. There's a lot to this hand, since your opponents can have a massive range of hands. You could be up against two pair, set, straight, straight draw, flush draw, straight and flush draw, overpair, and any combination of the above. Given this, I think the things to consider when deciding whether to raise are:

-Is it a semi-bluff or a raise for value?

-If it's a semi-bluff, do you really expect three opponents to have hands they can fold after putting 12 dollars into the pot? Are your opponents likely to be capable of folding two pair? An overpair? A set (probably not)?

-If it's a raise for value, what sort of value are you really getting here? You're drawing to the low end of the straight and, imo, two of your diamond outs are probably in the hand of one of your opponents.

Those were my initial thoguhts. I talked for a while with a friend of mine abotu this hand and I think that after everything, a pot-sized raise (i. e. 70 or so) is probably correct, for value. This is based on the possible range of each player's hands, which is admittedly extremely wide. SB can have set, two pair, or straight as his most likely holdings (imo), and BB can have about the same, with flush and straight draws thrown in. I think for MP most likely reads are overs with flush draw, or a hand like TT or JJ, though again, set is also possible. That said, one of them is probably stupid and hanging around with a one-pair hand like A8, and MP could just be an idiot with overcards thinking hes getting 4:1.

Given the range of hands, I dont think you have a lot of fold equity at all. IMO, at least one of your opponents is usually going to have a hand that calls you, be it set, two pair, straight, or (from MP) OP. But, you're in good shape against eveyrthing but a high straight, and frequently enough a smaller flush draw is going to come along, and becuase of that, a substantial raise (that is, about pot, roughly 70-80), will accomplish the goal of getting your money in with an edge. Plus there's added value from the few times when you do manage to pick up the whole pot.

If you get one caller, I think you're playing passively until you make your hand. If SB or MP calls flop bet then shoves into you on turn, you probably have to fold, since theres' almost no way your A out is good and you'll only be getting like 5:2. If you're called and you make your hand, you're pretty likely to stack anyone who's made it that far.

Thoughts?

I think a raise can be good if you are excellent at reading hands.. I think a good percentage of the time you will see a blank turn, have one or two callers and a massive pot you now have no clue of how to go about. If you are excellent at reading hands the turn should play easier since you then should know when to semibluff or when to take the freecard. Excellent hand reading should also enable you to better calculate FE on the flop which IMO is a crucial factor here

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I think it's tempting to raise here... but I think that the pot is small enough that it doesn't matter so much to take it down.

Call. The times you stack someone else who is flushing will more than make up for it.

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/agree

If someone does have a set/overpair/twopair and puts you all-in on the flop your in a tricky position (It'd be an easy call, just not a call i'd like to make). You don't want to push out worse FD's and the pots not large enough to want an immediate take down. If i used a raise here for anything it'd be to get a free river.

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If I dont raise, I cant respect myself in the morning.

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Respect is all you'll have left in the morning.

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It's possible that you will get the made hands to fold

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i don't think this is accurate based on the betting...i think sets or 2 pair are going along for the ride

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By made hand, I don't mean just a set or 2-pair. Each hand has some made strength and some drawing strength. You are behind weak made hands like AK and T7, and you could easily get these to fold with a raise. In fact, after the preflop raiser just calls, I expect him to have overcards which could easily include an ace.

It's great if you can get a hand like 55 to fold, leaving you up against a lower flush draw who probably won't try to bluff you off on the river if he misses, but will stack off if the flush hits.

With 9 diamonds and 3 more 4 and 9's = 15 outs I like your bet. You will likely take down the pot here. You are also drawing to the nuts until a pair hits the board. Good.
If you don't win it here, your odds drop off huge if only one person calls.
I'd bet the pot again on the turn, thus thoroughly decieving any caller.
If you hit it on the river, I'm all in.
If you don't hit it on the river, I'd still make a large bet, as many times the other caller is also drawing and will fold figuring you for trips or an over pair.

There is a qualifier here though. I only do this with TAG players, as they seldom call. LAG's call far more often.

If you just call down the flop and turn, and then hit your flush on the river, isn't your hand pretty apparent to any opponent?
If that happens, how much do you bet?
Will all in just fold everyone??
IMO there's far more "equity" or "betting value" in the hand if you play it aggressively from the flop on, and you may win it without ever hitting your hand.
Any other flush draw will NOT automatically assume that you were drawing to the flush, cuz "why was he betting so big on the flop then?"
Comments?

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We can agree, right, that the decision is between raising and calling, right? Folding is out of hte question?

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OBVIOUSLY.

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How about just low-raising or min-raising?

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I don't wanna give any set or straight the chance to blow out the other flush draws.

Haven't read all of the responses yet. I'm glad that this turned into a more hypothetical example that talked about more than this hand.

So my goals in this hand, and poker altogether, are to make my opponent make mistakes according to the fundamental theory of poker. The mistakes are -

1. Opponents calling with worse hands
2. Opponents folding better hands
3. Opponents paying too much to draw

Of course, the bigger mistakes the better, the more +EV the merrier.

So which option acheives this goal the most? First let's look at what happens when I pursue each option.

1. If I raise -
1.I'm going to thin the field. As I said in my original post, I thought that people just calling the initial bet signaled weakness, especially on such a draw heavy board. When I raise to 50, or 65, or 85, I'm going to have less opponents to deal with on future streets.

2.I'll also take the lead in the hand, which significantly increases the likelihood that it will be checked to me on the turn. At that point, I'll be able to take a free card or keep the pressure on.

These two advantages are really similar and it comes down to the same thing, which they are raising my pot equity. I raise my pot equity by knocking out hands like 56 or 89. Also when I get a hand like 99-AA to fold, I'm making money by having a better hand fold, or let me draw cheap. And hell, no one has shown real strength, I could pick up a nice pot right here.

If I call -

Why would I want to thin the field? Why would I want like Kxs to fold to my big flop raise when I can keep him in and stack him when the flush card hits? Well a couple of points here -

1. The flush card hits ~1/6 of the time
2. The flush card only makes me money if my opponents have Kxs or Qxs, I may not get paid off by Q-high flush.
3. If I just call, and try to build the pot when the flush card hits, my hand is transparent. Overpairs don't stay around, straights go for the cheap showdown and maybe even fold, and sets only stay in if they have odds to suck out on me.
4. Hands like overpairs I'm ahead of but will take the lead if the turn bricks or run away when it's obvious I hit. I want these hands all in on the flop with me.
5. My straight draw sucks. This is really just applying to this hand, but i can really only like a 4 to hit and could still be behind. A 9 kills action from hands that are behind, so it's more like I have a gutshot than anything.
6. We're assuming my raise will blow out a lesser flush draw, that's not always the case.

There are also considerations about hands beyond this hand. If I'm calling with draws and raising to blow them out, I'm pretty easy to play against. I don't give this too much value because I don't think the majority of NL200er's are thinking about this. But the smart ones are, and the dumb ones look at you as just bluffing and will pay you off more often.

I think then raising is better for a lot of reasons.

1. I can win the pot with a hand that could end out being ace high, or even worse the sucker end to a straight.
2. I can win a much bigger pot when I make a flush or straight, because by betting when I hit, I'm not 'waking up' to a hand, but just continuing aggression. Also there is more money in the pot.
3. I make my hand more often, because I can get a free card more frequently.
4. I get paid off more in the future because I'm betting more with more hands.
5. If I get all in, I've got 9 outs to the nuts and 4 pretty good outs. My ace could be good against an 89 or KK also. There's a lot of dead money in the pot. I'm probably at least getting the odds and have a neutral EV if all my money goes in here, and I still get the metagame effects so I don't mind that at all.

As I said at the beginning of this post, I want to make my opponents make mistakes according to the fundamental theoreom of poker. Raising is better on all 3 rules.

1. Opponents are much more likely to call with worse hands on later streets if I raise the flop. My hand is obvious when I dont raise. This not only applies to this hand but later hands.
2. It's very possible that I end up with just ace high on the river (~40% of the time). Raising is the only way to have better hands fold.
3. Once I raise, I take the lead in the hand and make it cheaper for me to make my hand. In this one, my opponents are not charging me properly to draw, they're making a mistake, I'm making money.

I bet 50 and BB pushes. Everyone else folds and I call the extra 6. BB shows 910 and I whiff.

God bless opponents with small stacks. (when they win)

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If I dont raise, I cant respect myself in the morning.

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Respect is all you'll have left in the morning.

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