75/150 River bluff #2
 

SB is LAG and has been happy to pound away so far without trying to save bets. The hands I've show him down are all reasonable, and I haven't really been playing back much.

Folded to SB, who opens, I call T4o. Blinds are 75 and 50 btw.

Flop 663r. Bet, raise, he calls.

Turn 7. Check, bet, call.

River A. He bets, I raise.

This one?

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

Seems like as good a spot as any. I don't mind it against an aggressive player.

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

looks pretty spewy to me actually. i'm struggling to put him on anything besides Ax here and i don't think he folds it. i'd fold preflop too...

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

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looks pretty spewy to me actually. i'm struggling to put him on anything besides Ax here and i don't think he folds it. i'd fold preflop too...

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He says SB's a LAG so I guess I'm imagining he's bluffing the ace enough to make our bluff profitable.

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

but what other non-pair hands does he call the turn with? i guess like J5 or something with a gutshot maybe. and his river bet should be either a pair of aces or a bluff... hmm.

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

I guess if he missed a straight draw or whatever but I'd be inclined to call this if I even had a K in my hand

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

I'm pretty certain he's calling the turn with J5 and any gutshot + overcard, because this is effectively 10 outs to the hand I'm representing (threes). There are heaps of these combinations.

Now his river bet as you say is either an ace or a bluff. The pot has a bit of size by this point, and I don't mind spending 2 bets to take a shot at it. 7:2 is pretty decent.

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

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I guess if he missed a straight draw or whatever but I'd be inclined to call this if I even had a K in my hand

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Why would you have bet the river with K-high in the first place though?

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

yeah i guess i just didn't get it at first... i still fold preflop, but the river play might just work often enough.

Re: 75/150 River bluff #2
 

I apologize in advance if there are errors, because I did these calculations very quickly. I also used a couple of extremely simplistic assumptions:

1) The only hands SB would have played this way are overcard(s) plus gutshot, K high, and A high (which rivered a pair)

2) He would always have played all of these hands this way preflop, on the flop, and on the turn

3) He will always fold to your river raise if he doesn't have a pair

4) He will always donk the river when he has an Ace


Given that you have one T and one 4, by my quick estimate there are 201 overcard(s) plus gutshot combinations, 168 K high combinations, and 152 Ace high (now one pair) combinations. So for your bluff to be profitable he has to be bluffing 3.5 times as often as he actually has an Ace (because you are getting 7 to 2 = 3.5 to 1 odds.)

Since our assumptions tell us he will bet with all 152 of his hands which actually contain and Ace, he needs to bluff with 152/3.5 = 43.4 additional hands. Since there are 353 combinations which do not contain an Ace, he needs to be willing to bluff the river 43.4/353 = .123, or a little over 12% of the times that he is unpaired for our river raise to be profitable.

If he will fold the K high hands on the turn and therefore can have only Ace high or an overcard(s) plus gutshot hand, he needs to be willing to bluff 43.4/201 = .216, or almost 22% of the time for our river raise to be profitable.

Cartman