Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is in the shorthanded section of HPFAP. If the BB fold to your raise x% (I really should know this) of the time it is immediatly profitable to raise every hand.

___1___

[/ QUOTE ]


i had a dinner with a bunch of guys, and stox was among them. he said with a fold bb to steal >50 he will raise any 2 from the sb. i found that interesting. i am typically tihgt from the sb

[/ QUOTE ]

untrue. my bottom 90% of hands I will always raise. top 10% balanced between raising and completing.

It's mathematically impossible for it to be incorrect to NOT raise your worst hand (23o) from the SB first in if you KNOW BB will fold greater than 50% of the time. I dont see what is so hard here. Maybe you are saying someone will defend more liberally vs a SB steal than a button steal?

Give me 23o in the SB first in vs a 51% folder with no memory a million times in a row please (1:2 and 2:3 structure only).

[/ QUOTE ]
Your example is somewhat true, but not really since you're going to have to play postflop and you'll be out of position, so you need to go a little deeper into the math than >50%=raise.

Either way though, if you're basing that decision on the "folded BB to steal" stat that is definitely wrong. I fold my BB to a steal >50% but it's probably only like 10% or 15% when it's a steal from the SB. I would guess that's not what you meant, I just thought I'd mention it since Josh made it sound that way.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is in the shorthanded section of HPFAP. If the BB fold to your raise x% (I really should know this) of the time it is immediatly profitable to raise every hand.

___1___

[/ QUOTE ]


i had a dinner with a bunch of guys, and stox was among them. he said with a fold bb to steal >50 he will raise any 2 from the sb. i found that interesting. i am typically tihgt from the sb

[/ QUOTE ]

untrue. my bottom 90% of hands I will always raise. top 10% balanced between raising and completing.

It's mathematically impossible for it to be incorrect to NOT raise your worst hand (23o) from the SB first in if you KNOW BB will fold greater than 50% of the time. I dont see what is so hard here. Maybe you are saying someone will defend more liberally vs a SB steal than a button steal?

Give me 23o in the SB first in vs a 51% folder with no memory a million times in a row please (1:2 and 2:3 structure only).

[/ QUOTE ]
Your example is somewhat true, but not really since you're going to have to play postflop and you'll be out of position, so you need to go a little deeper into the math than >50%=raise.

Either way though, if you're basing that decision on the "folded BB to steal" stat that is definitely wrong. I fold my BB to a steal >50% but it's probably only like 10% or 15% when it's a steal from the SB. I would guess that's not what you meant, I just thought I'd mention it since Josh made it sound that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is not reraising ever, having a fold to steal >50% will be enough for instant profit, so it does not matter that we are out of position on postflop, as we can decide to fold every single time if we end up playing, and we will still profit. Obviously, since we can play profitably on some flops, our outlook is even better.

You are right that "folded BB to steal" is not a good stat to use, and "folded BB to a SB steal" is better. But another key thing to factor in is how often he reraises preflop. Without knowing that, you cannot do the math.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

Evan,

I wonder if the players who fold their BB > 50% are the ones who make it profitable to auto-follow through on the flop, and how much of the profit in this situation comes from the flop bet as opposed to winning directly.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

why go deeper?

IF he folds >51% of the time you show a profit by raising 23o everytime and folding if 3 bet.

The exactly correct stat is FBB-HU.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
why go deeper?

IF he folds >51% of the time you show a profit by raising 23o everytime and folding if 3 bet.

The exactly correct stat is FBB-HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do show immediate profit if you fold to a 3-bet, but what is the minimum hand you are calling a 3-bet with?

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
Either way though, if you're basing that decision on the "folded BB to steal" stat that is definitely wrong. I fold my BB to a steal >50% but it's probably only like 10% or 15% when it's a steal from the SB. I would guess that's not what you meant, I just thought I'd mention it since Josh made it sound that way.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think thats the key point here. I don't think there are very many players at all these days that fold their bb to a SB steal greater than 50% of the time. I'd be surprised if there were more than a handful at 10/20 6max.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why go deeper?

IF he folds >51% of the time you show a profit by raising 23o everytime and folding if 3 bet.

The exactly correct stat is FBB-HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do show immediate profit if you fold to a 3-bet, but what is the minimum hand you are calling a 3-bet with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't pokerstove capable of answering this?

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you are saying someone will defend more liberally vs a SB steal than a button steal?

[/ QUOTE ]
I fold my BB to an LP steal about 55% of the time. I fold my BB to a SB openraise about 10% unless I have reason to expect a good hand. In other words I may be weak but I'm not an idiot. I'm sure a lot of other people play like this too.

Owning the button postflop is hugely important and makes the two situations pretty hard to compare with each other.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't pokerstove capable of answering this?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. Junk hands have negative implied odds HU OOP and PS cannot allow for this.

If either player would be all-in (no postflop betting) you have to call any two cards. PokerStove will tell you this.

My opinion is that if you openraise the SB you have to call the reraise. I think the raise-fold idea is a useful mathematical tool for showing the correctness of autoraising against someone who folds too much, but folding isn't something you should ever actually do. Calling 1 SB HU with 5 SB in the pot is virtually always right.

Re: Open Raising the SB With Pure Trash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is in the shorthanded section of HPFAP. If the BB fold to your raise x% (I really should know this) of the time it is immediatly profitable to raise every hand.

___1___

[/ QUOTE ]


i had a dinner with a bunch of guys, and stox was among them. he said with a fold bb to steal >50 he will raise any 2 from the sb. i found that interesting. i am typically tihgt from the sb

[/ QUOTE ]

untrue. my bottom 90% of hands I will always raise. top 10% balanced between raising and completing.

It's mathematically impossible for it to be incorrect to NOT raise your worst hand (23o) from the SB first in if you KNOW BB will fold greater than 50% of the time. I dont see what is so hard here. Maybe you are saying someone will defend more liberally vs a SB steal than a button steal?

Give me 23o in the SB first in vs a 51% folder with no memory a million times in a row please (1:2 and 2:3 structure only).

[/ QUOTE ]


it's not mathematically impossible to lose money with 23o against a guy who folds 51% of his hands. the reason for this is he has position and a better hand, giving you some reverse implied odds. preflop you will be making automoney. but postflop id have to imagine youd lose something right?