Take this risk?
 

I'm a long time lurker on this forum, I've never really posted before.
This hand came up last night in a 10+1 MTT on Stars.
I've been trying to be more agressive lately, take more chances. I've been doing some questionable raises all tournament, trying new things. Therefore I've been caught a few times with less than stellar hole cards.
There are about 100 people left, money starts at 54. I've got a stack that's a little below average with 20BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">MP3 (t7745)</font>
CO (t7285)
Button (t13860)
SB (t1141)
BB (t2994)
UTG (t7535)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t8085)</font>
MP1 (t16372)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 (t3325)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1200</font>,

This may have been my first mistake. I guess my first question is should I be raising UTG+1 with 99 here. I can't see folding it. I haven't exactly been on a great rush of decent cards and was happy to see something like 99. Maybe given my recent agression this is a bad spot to be in.

<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t3300</font> all in,

I'm not too concerned with MP2's raise all in. He's short stacked and could be pushing with anything that looks nice. Ace with a good kicker, any pocket pair.

At this point MP3 takes a WHILE to make his decision. I defer to my read on this. If he had 1010-AA, AK he would've acted quickly. AQ probably as well. I read him for an "inferior" hand, mid-lower pockets, maybe AJ. I just didn't see him as the type to slowplay a monster here. He'd want to isolate the short stack IMO. Maybe I'm wrong on this but this is the first time I've seen him "think" all tournament.

MP3 calls t3300, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>,

So after much thought he flat calls. Now I'm sure he's got something vulnerable. Enough to call an all in, but not enough to risk his whole stack. My guess is he's hoping I fold. He did however call off about half his stack so I must assume he's committed to this pot.

It's back around to me.

200 + 400 + 1200 + 3300 + 3300 = 8400 in the pot.
I've got 6885 left and
MP3 has 4445 left.

What do I do? And more importantly, why do I do it?

Re: Take this risk?
 

I would think the opposite, in my experience Player 3 is more likely to have a monster and is thinking how to keep you in the hand. If he had a middle pair or AK, AQ he would probably move all in to get you out of the hand. If he is a good player he maybe trapping you into the pot with AA or KK

You can of course call with 9-9 as your pot odds are very good, but i would be looking to hit a set or be very cautious hoping to check it down with him.

Re: Take this risk?
 

I'm calling here only because of the pot-odds are too tempting and you still have enough to recover if you lose this.. MP3's flat call worries me though, looks like he's trying to keep you in the hand.

Re: Take this risk?
 

I don't like flat calling here hoping for a set or a flop that's &lt;9. I'm putting in a large amount of my stack to see three cards. I'll be at about 10BB after I call. What I lacked was a plan after I called. Do I fold to any bet by MP3 if the flop contains some high cards? Do I try a stop and go? What's your move after the flop? He's got position on me which makes this a lot harder

On any normal flat call I would have agreed with you, he wants me in the hand. But this was a little different. This wasn't a quick call, this looked to be a genuine moment where he stopped to think. I do not give the guy credit for being creative enough to "act", call time and think it over before he called holding AA or KK.

Re: Take this risk?
 

how do you know he's not thinking about raising all in and calling rather then calling and folding? Most vulnerable hands want to isolate whereas AA people will want to try and keep you in the hand. I wouldn't go all in here. I'm not sure if I'd call or fold. I think I'd just call and hope to check it down and play for a set.

Re: Take this risk?
 

he either has you murdered or he has AK.

call the raise and hope to flop a nine. you have good pot odds and reasonable implied odds. also the pot is protected because of the all in player, so your opponent isn't going to bluff you. if you check when you dont flop a nine and he checks behind then you can re evaluate because you probably have the best hand.

Re: Take this risk?
 

As you said, he's completely committed himself to this pot, which simplifies things. He had a choice--get his money in by means that invite you in as well (call then push), or get it in by means that make it really hard for you to come in (push immediately). He chose the former.

I'm not sure we have the odds to try and flop a set. The call is 2100, our max return is 12845, about 6-1. The probability of making our hand is 7-1. (We almost certainly need to hit it on the flop, right?) Somebody help me out if I'm computing this wrong.

Re: Take this risk?
 

Call and see a flop. If you like it, try a stop and go, or hopefully you'll get him to check it down with you.

If he bets on the flop then you're going to be in a world of hurt.

I don't like the all in here, if hes calling MP3s all in hes probably going to call another 5k from you. Pot odds would be so large that he'd have to.