How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

Okay here's the deal. I am relatively new to online poker and poker in general. I have read TOP, Lee Jones' Low Limit Hold'Em, and SSHE. I am currently re-reading SSHE. I consider myself to be a better than average newbie because of my background in blackjack (successful cardcounting for the past 3 years). I understand variance, risk of ruin, and more importantly discipline. I have read that 300 BB is a relatively standard bank for a reasonable risk of ruin, 500 is even better. I have purchased PT and Playerview, I have logged about 6000 hands (and I realize that is statistically insignificant). I am presently down 100 BB. Assuming I am at least halfway decent, is being down 100 BB in 6000 hands reasonable. Is it maybe a couple Standard Deviation negative swing or do I just suck.

Thanks for the help,
-Shaggy

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

Perfectly reasonable. You cannot conclude anything from 6000 hands, as you suspect. This is also a good time to analyze your play, as it is more likely that you are making mistakes you can correct. Post hands.

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

100 BB downswings are part of the buisness and not uncommon. 6k hands really isn't a large sample space to determine much. Your game may have glaring leaks, and I suspect you probably have spotted a few. That being said, if you feel you are playing well and the downswing hasn't affected you to the point where your tilting, you should just play through it. Running bad happens. Downswings can go up to 200-300 BB or in extreme cases, I've heard of as much as 500 BB downswings.

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

This swing is definitely within variance.

However, statistcally speaking, it's now more likely that you are a losing player than a winning one, even if this is not yet a "significant" assessment. So make sure you don't just shrug off a loss to variance when you're potentially leaking like crazy.

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

I've lost 400 dollars at 2/4 in a lot less than 6K hands. So it is definitely within reason.

But as a beginner, you are probably making at least a few routine mistakes. Sort your starting hands by BB/100 hands. Look for starting hands that are doing poorly for you (especially ones you'd expect to be winning with) and post them here.

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

It is definitely with in limits of variance. However I would be more worried at this point that you have some pretty big leaks. I recently went through a bigger downswing then this and after analyzing my play found some leaks that, while running good have little effect but when the cards turn it was absolutely crippling. If in doubt post some hands that you are unsure of. It has definitely helped me

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

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I've lost 400 dollars at 2/4 in a lot less than 6K hands. So it is definitely within reason.


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Just wanted to clarify the reasoning behind this post.

The fact that we have all lost 100BB in less than 6k hands is not evidence that losing 100BB in 6k hands is reasonable. Many of our 100BB downswings probably take a few hundred hands or so to occur.

But that doesn't imply that the same drop over a longer span is okay.

For example, if he were to be down 100BB over a span of 500,000 hands, I think we would all be a little bit concerned.

That said, -100BB in 6k hands is nothing to worry about. Sucky, but completely reasonable.

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

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after analyzing my play found some leaks that, while running good have little effect but when the cards turn it was absolutely crippling.

[/ QUOTE ]
A leak is a leak regardless of how well you're running.

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after analyzing my play I found some leaks that, while running good are difficult to notice but when the cards turn it was the mistakes I was making were perfectly obvious.

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FYP.

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

Thanks for the replies. Would it make any difference if I said that within the first 1000 hands I was up 225 BB and now have swung to being down 100 BB. Basically a downswing of 325BB in 5000 hands.

I feel my preflop play is solid. I use the info in SSHE as a strict guideline. I believe my post flop play is definently a weakness, but that will improve with reading and applying what I have read. I think within the first couple thousand hands I was calling down a little too much. I have tightened since then with a little aggression in the mix.

I feel I have definitely played better poker in the last 4000 hands, but have lost 300+BB in that time.

I have experienced big swings in blackjack, but have the experience to know that I am playing a winning game and it just comes with the territory. I need this confidence in poker. Large losses happen in blackjack, and I am hardened by them, they don't tilt me in blackjack and I believe they don't tilt me in poker. It sounds like I am just experiencing a bad downswing although my game does need to improve.

Thanks, any more input is welcomed.
-Shaggy

Re: How Volatile is Party 2/4 Hold\'EM
 

225 BB up in 1000 hands is really running good. Since you swung down 325 BB in 5k after that I would begin to worry.

How many hands are you playing, ie was is your VPIP?

My guess is you are playing WAY too many hands which could account for the swings.