$10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here?
 

Rare $10/$20 session so I'm not too familiar with the players. Given that my opponent is willing to bet 5th into me, is it worth putting in this semi-bluff raise? And if I do and he calls, should I check or bet on 6th if I blank? (I assume I should bet if I actually improve or catch a heart).


7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 5: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (4.90 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.45 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here?
 

He's willing to bet into you because that's what you're supposed to do when you pair your board. He has two pair clearly and doesn't want to risk a freebie making your hand, but your board is scary and a raise will make him puke. So raise. Bet 6th if you catch a heart, two pair, any card that puts a 4-straight on your board - even gutshot. If you obviously brick off, take the free card since he won't be folding his two pair. Another plus is he will act first on the end and will likely check two pair b/c he knows you might have rivered something. Simply check again if you miss and allow him to win the pot. Ironically though, if he bets you might have to call with just queens b/c him betting into your board after you check sixth likely means a full house or you misread his hand and he just has 9's. Fun game. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Jeff

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here? - RESULTS
 

Hand went down just as you predicted, in some sense. We both checked 6th, I still hadn't improved at all on 7th but was prepared to call. Guess he thought better of bluffing though, he just had the nines (A2 in the hole, don't know what that's about). Looking back it just seemed so unlikely he'd ever fold a better hand than my queens, so then I started to question whether just letting him bet into me was better.

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here?
 

I agree 100% about which cards to bet on sixth and when to take the free card instead. I'm not sure there's much room for debate there.

The river is more subtle. On the one hand, him betting on the river is suspicious for the reasons you mentioned. However, because of the action on the previous streets, he should put you on precisely (at best) split queens with a four flush, without two pair (before the river). It is mathematically more likely that you do not improve than you do improve. Thus, he can value bet two pair and fold to a raise if he is confident on the read that you will not bluff raise the river. If our opponent instead check/calls he is allowing himself to basically get owned, since Hero will not bluff the river after checking sixth street but will only value bet two pair or better.

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The river is more subtle. On the one hand, him betting on the river is suspicious for the reasons you mentioned. However, because of the action on the previous streets, he should put you on precisely (at best) split queens with a four flush, without two pair (before the river). It is mathematically more likely that you do not improve than you do improve. Thus, he can value bet two pair and fold to a raise if he is confident on the read that you will not bluff raise the river. If our opponent instead check/calls he is allowing himself to basically get owned, since Hero will not bluff the river after checking sixth street but will only value bet two pair or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all interesting, but typical opponents are babies and don't want to be raised on the river when they know you took the freebie with a good draw. Most will check again even though what you're saying is right. If it's a thinking opponent, what you say has more validity. But typical opponents don't think...I'll bet and fold to a raise; they want to see showdown and don't want to call a raise. So most will check.

So if I or you are villian in this hand, we would bet two pair and fold. I just think typical opponents are more likely to check and if they bet they have a boat (majority) or something you don't expect (once in awhile). If I check 6th, I am paying off river with Bart's hand here.

Jeff

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here? - RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand went down just as you predicted, in some sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff seems clairvoyant sometimes.

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here? - RESULTS
 

Jeff can stay the f away from my table...he plays good.

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here?
 

100% agree.

But now that I think about it, what's the difference between betting 6th and checking the river and checking 6th and calling the river? The fact that he won't always bet on the river? Some players will auto-bet the river here. I guess it comes down to your read on the opponent, if any. With no read, checking 6th and calling 7th is likely best (unless your hand changes, of course).

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here?
 

The problem with betting 6th (if you miss) is you can be checkraised and, while that usually means you're drawing to a boat and can fold, it can be some kind of play with two pair or whatever and you might fold drawing live. And you don't get to see his hand. So I'm checking behind 6th w/o improvement or scare card here.

Jeff

Re: $10/$20 7-High: Worth semi-bluffing here? - RESULTS
 

Thanks for the compliments guys...

Jeff

P.S. All this posting is making me want to go up to AC this weekend lol. But I don't think I can unfortunately (the whole, if you're going to go every weekend you might as move there issue).