Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

Villan looks to be TPP, but not enough hands for a solid stats read, and I'm 4-tabling, so I'm not catching individual plays.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, Hero ?

This board just kept getting scarier. I've caught a couple of guys today playing like this with just overcards, and been rivered like this with guys staying in with crapboxes. If he had bet out the river, I definitely would have called, but since he checked I figure I'm WA/WB and plan to check. Well?

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

Why wouldn't you bet? You have TPTK and villian has not shown very much aggression.

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

I'd bet it, calling a raise. I doubt villain was betting an 8 on the flop. If he does show overcards, thank him for not charging you as much as he should have.

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

Value bet this. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, or JT much more than he has any hand with an 8 or a hand that made two pair on this board.

Buddy list UTG+1 and UTG+2 by the way. Limping and folding for one more shows they are exactly the players you want sitting at your table.

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

Considering the possible hands that he would be the flop with, and the fact that he already checked the river, you should bet this for value. More often than check-raising, a player will lead out on a river like this with an 8.

According to HEPFAP, (you are being checked to on the river) you need to be ahead 55% of the time that he'll call you here to justify betting. Considering that he bet the flop and called the turn, you will probably get this 55%.

Also, this is not the condition for a WA/WB play. "WA/WB play" seems to be the hammer for every nail for this month on micro. Do a search on the proper times to apply this.

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

[ QUOTE ]
Value bet this. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, or JT much more than he has any hand with an 8 or a hand that made two pair on this board.

Buddy list UTG+1 and UTG+2 by the way. Limping and folding for one more shows they are exactly the players you want sitting at your table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. This reaffirms my analysis of my recent play: in cases like this I'm being too passive, but in cases where I'm actually likely behind (say a K fell on the flop and Villan raised the turn) I'm playing too aggro.

Oh, and the limp/folders already have their seats on the Buddy Boat.

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

I would bet the river also, top pair with the highest kicker.

Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button
 

You should bet this, don't think you can put him on an 8. If he's tight and passive, what would you put him on to limp pre-flop and bet into a raiser on the flop that has an 8? I would guess he's got a pair, maybe top pair with a worse kicker than you, and he's calling you down.