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-   -   10/20 AQ (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=391377)

shant 12-04-2005 09:04 PM

10/20 AQ
 
SB is 22/9/1.4 over thousands of hands. SB's preflop coldcall percentage is less than 2. MP2 got lost from his 6-max table. His stats are 30/24/3.98 over 400 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: I am Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, I call, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, I call.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP2 calls, I?

Also, how is my flop play?

Piiop 12-04-2005 09:06 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
Unplug your connection.

Edit: Real answer...I'd call down and cry, but I want to fold but the pot's so big. I'd put SB on JJ/77/AJ/AK/other A. He's tight enough not to call 2.5 from the SB with other junk and his aggression is low enough that he's not doing it with a flush draw after all that action. I think folding may be right.

W. Deranged 12-04-2005 09:21 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
Pre-flop and flop are good.

If you are really confident in your statistics and your reads, folding becomes an option here. But considering you have 3 outs against AJ (probably AJs is what he'd have here) and AK, are chopping with another AQ, and are getting like 8-1 on a call down, I think you should call down. You'll improve to a winner effectively like 4% of the time, and I don't think it's unreasonably to say your ahead/chopping here like 8-9% of the time otherwise.

This sucks though.

gh9801 12-04-2005 10:26 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
It's unfortunate that you're most likely behind here, maybe even drawing dead to 77, but the pot is too big and you're closing the action on the turn. Call turn, and invest only 1BB more to see a showdown

TStoneMBD 12-04-2005 10:30 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
i like a fold.

SippinSoma 12-04-2005 10:58 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
I peel and check/fold UI.

chief444 12-04-2005 11:27 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
Against a more reasonably aggressive MP2 I'd say you could fold. But with a completely overaggressive MP2 and a decent and likely observant SB I'd call down. SB's range I think given the situation (that is he's likely seeing your 3-bet range as pretty light here as it should be) includes at least AQo and you're ahead of MP2 most of the time. I think getting 16 or 17:2 on a calldown here is enough under the circumstances.

jason_t 12-04-2005 11:29 PM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
gtfo

Klepton 12-05-2005 07:30 AM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
this looks a lot like 77, but i call and fold UI.

12-05-2005 08:40 AM

Re: 10/20 AQ
 
I would call the turn and the river, and probably lose 2 BB's. But the pot is too big to fold.


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