Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

10/20 live in LA. I have $3700, villain covers. Villain is aggro and kind of tricky, a pro, and generally a dick. Table is 6 handed. We used to play together some when I was much laggier, but I don't know that he remembers, so his view of me is who knows.

I open A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG for $100. Folded to villain in BB who calls.

(Pot $210)

Dream flop of 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He checks, I bet $140, thinking he may come over the top with a really wide range, but he does not, just calls.

(Pot $490)

Turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he checks and I check (we can argue about the turn check, as I don't know that I like it much now).

River A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He leads really aggressively - like an over the top strong means weak thing - for $400.

Who raises?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

me

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Me too, with the plan of folding to a three-bet, I think.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

The only reason that I wouldn't raise here would be that if I show that I'm not raising top two on the river in this spot, I'd be able to bluff him off any river I feel like unless he has the nuts. That just doesn't seem worth the extra $1K you could make here.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Depending on how tricky the opponent is, I think I might just call. The thing is that he can be almost positive you are not checking 56 on the turn. As a result, the only hand he really fears is AA, and even then if he comes over the top you really aren't beating anything but a bluff and might lay it down.

If he is not capable of coming over the top with any two, I'd raise it maybe $650-800 more. Enough so that it could appear to him you are bluff-raising.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

i like the turn check. I'd raise river to 1200-1600 and fold if he comes back over the top.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

If this hand were reversed, would you call a river raise in this situation with two pair?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

The reason I don't love the turn check in hindsight is because given his play til now, diamonds look like a reasonable possiblity and if they don't hit, i need to get more value here.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Against him yes, against me, no.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

well if he's tough, he can't really be calling a pot sized turn bet with diamonds. I think if he is likely to have diamonds then the turn check is even better, and you can get a lot of money in on the river if it hits.

I guess if he'll call off 500 on the turn with diamonds you might as well bet, but it would really suck to get blown off your hand if he decides to checkraise.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I don't love the turn check in hindsight is because given his play til now, diamonds look like a reasonable possiblity and if they don't hit, i need to get more value here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see any problem with checking this turn. You really, really, really do not want to get check-raised all-in here, which he could do with a turned straight, a set or a hand like 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Even if you put him on raggedy diamonds, betting the turn will be tricky business because you obviously don't want to lose him.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

That's why I checked, but on the flop, this is a hand I will go broke with against this guy everyday, and I think I might even be willing to go broke on the turn - meaning that if he comes over the top, i don't care because I'm calling.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

going broke on the flop is fine, but on the turn he'd have to be really really agro for me to like getting it all in there. You might *have* to go broke but that doesnt mean getting it all in on the turn is better than checking.

you might have to call against this guy if he does raise the turn, but i doubt you'd be hoping he raised it. I still like the check.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's why I checked, but on the flop, this is a hand I will go broke with against this guy everyday, and I think I might even be willing to go broke on the turn - meaning that if he comes over the top, i don't care because I'm calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you on the flop of course, but getting it all-in on the turn is another kettle of fish in my view. As you point out, you probably are calling, but that doesn't mean that it is a good spot to be in. Put another way, if you bet the turn, you are not hoping that Villain pushes.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

That was spooky etizzle. Are we sharing the same brain or something?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

whoa, rococo, that was kinda weird. Are our thoughts coming out of the same skull or something?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

You guys don't really need to convince me - obviously since I checked, we're on the same page. And my thoughts on the turn are probably more of a live read thing than one we can accurately evaluate here - this guy loves pushing people around, so his range for checkraising the turn includes a number of hands that I would be OK getting my money in against - and a few that I have crushed.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

No worries. Keep posting btw. Your hands are among the most interesting b/c of the "live" dynamic.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
Me too, with the plan of folding to a three-bet, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Expecting calls from 97, A4, 43 and perhaps AK . . .

But it really sounds as if this guy's pretty apt to bluff push w/ busted diamonds or air to represent 56, so I guess it comes down to if you think he's calling you w/ a hand you beat often enough to make a river raise worth it vs. the risk that he bluffs you out w/ a worse hand.

Seems pretty close against this guy. Maybe the idea of folding to a three-bet is a bad idea, because of the possibility he's going to try to push you around? So maybe it's better to either call his river bet or raise and call a push?

Also, the "strength" he shows kinda concerns me that he might have 56 and is looking for a raise from you. Kinda seems like a reverse tell, no?

Good post.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

I think this is a raise here to like 1200 or so and I'm not even sure if I could fold if he came back over the top. When you check the turn it looks like a draw, the river raise might just seem like a missed draw and he might call a raise with a wide range of hands. It gets kind of sticky if he puts in a reraise, and then I guess it depends if he might do this as a rebluff thinking you have a missed diamond draw without the ace of diamonds.

Betting the turn here isn't so bad an idea as it disgusies your hand more (more of a chance of being paid off on the river) and you don't have that bad a hand against a laggy player.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

This is a really good post Neon, and is why I think the hand interesting. I don't know that the choices are call or raise and fold to a 3 bet - I think they may be call or raise and CALL a 3 bet as you suggest.

I also think the dynamics of my turn check in combination with his crazy reverse tell thing makes the decision more interesting still.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason that I wouldn't raise here would be that if I show that I'm not raising top two on the river in this spot, I'd be able to bluff him off any river I feel like unless he has the nuts. That just doesn't seem worth the extra $1K you could make here.

[/ QUOTE ]

its a bit of a tangent to the hand but i thought your comment touched on a somewhat interesting point. i think not raising here indicates that the hero may be unwilling to make marginal value raises. this is not at all the same thing as indicating hero will not bluff raise the river. in some circumstances this can make it easier to call a river raise because if you know its either the nuts or a bluff its pretty hard to make the nuts so that leaves a decent chance of a bluff. all the marginal value raises are not included in the range of potential raising hands.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

apart from the unpleasantness resulting from a reraise i think there is definitely value in a raise. unless its the case that you never bluff the hand has played out in such a way that its pretty easy for you to have no hand whatsoever. its also pretty easy for him to not have much of a hand. given that he ought to be able to recognize all this he may interpret the river action as you bluffing which would allow him to call with all sorts of hands.

the amount of money left in play makes things ugly enough that i can understand not raising here if he is likely enough to put you to a decision that your not sure about. each of you has a wide enough hand range that the possibility of the two of you being on different pages as far as what hands are likely can complicate things. what im getting at is could he have a worse 2 pair and think your raising an A and think he is reraising for value with a worse hand. this scenario may be completely impossible given how the two of you play, i dont know, but my point is im not that sure what he is likely to interpret a river raise to mean. this means im less sure how to interpret a river raise from him which makes the decision pretty unpleasent.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

dude. post more. seriously.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

was thinking the same thing. great posts.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

i thought i was the only one that thought about this. good post.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Great thread. Wish I could contribute. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

hey man,

as others have already alluded to, there's a lot to this hand that depends on info very specific to the dynamic between you and villain (what does he think of you, what does he think you think of him, etc.)......also important is not just that he's "aggro" or "tricky", but what his specific tendencies are.....

for example.....is he aggro in the sense that he likes to checkraise a lot with nothing on the turn?....in this case I'd agree with you that a weak bet might've been nice on the turn.....or, is he tricky in the sense that he might make some loose preflop calls, but then generally won't make a big checkraise without the goods?....or, does he like to bluff the river if you check the turn?.....or, is his river bet always for value?.....will he call a raise with worse hands?.....does he think you're capable of a bluff-raise?...you see where I'm going.....

stack sizes are somewhat an issue, but not really that much....reason being, I think you have more than enough left to make a river raise without being committed (i.e. - if you make it 1200 you could still comfortably fold to a push)...I agree with what CWL said about the fact that you do sometimes need to make some seemingly brave value bets against these hot shots and not just shell up and call when you have a strong hand......I disagree with him though about the range that villain would push all-in with after your river raise.....I think there's a very low probability that villain pushes with any worse hand.....even if he thinks you could have AK, he's also not a donk and he knows you could have three aces or the nuts, etc. so I don't think he pushes with 97/etc.......a lot of people need to remember that this is a live game and not online - players tend to not overplay their hands as much.....

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Hi Coltrane - Yeah, all of that stuff is definitely important, but this table had been going about 10 minutes, and the last time I had played with villain was probably a year ago, so I didn't have the specific info I would have on guys I play with more regularly.

Your last paragraph and everything CWL said is right on.

CWL - That situation you refer to - the one that's almost the opposite of bluffing with the best hand - when he reraises because he thinks he has me beat w A4 is exactly where I was in the hand. I didn't know where he thought he was, and subsequently didn't know where I was.

Also, the river reverse tell thing looked a lot like real strength to me.