Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

well if he's tough, he can't really be calling a pot sized turn bet with diamonds. I think if he is likely to have diamonds then the turn check is even better, and you can get a lot of money in on the river if it hits.

I guess if he'll call off 500 on the turn with diamonds you might as well bet, but it would really suck to get blown off your hand if he decides to checkraise.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I don't love the turn check in hindsight is because given his play til now, diamonds look like a reasonable possiblity and if they don't hit, i need to get more value here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see any problem with checking this turn. You really, really, really do not want to get check-raised all-in here, which he could do with a turned straight, a set or a hand like 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Even if you put him on raggedy diamonds, betting the turn will be tricky business because you obviously don't want to lose him.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

That's why I checked, but on the flop, this is a hand I will go broke with against this guy everyday, and I think I might even be willing to go broke on the turn - meaning that if he comes over the top, i don't care because I'm calling.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

going broke on the flop is fine, but on the turn he'd have to be really really agro for me to like getting it all in there. You might *have* to go broke but that doesnt mean getting it all in on the turn is better than checking.

you might have to call against this guy if he does raise the turn, but i doubt you'd be hoping he raised it. I still like the check.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's why I checked, but on the flop, this is a hand I will go broke with against this guy everyday, and I think I might even be willing to go broke on the turn - meaning that if he comes over the top, i don't care because I'm calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you on the flop of course, but getting it all-in on the turn is another kettle of fish in my view. As you point out, you probably are calling, but that doesn't mean that it is a good spot to be in. Put another way, if you bet the turn, you are not hoping that Villain pushes.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

That was spooky etizzle. Are we sharing the same brain or something?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

whoa, rococo, that was kinda weird. Are our thoughts coming out of the same skull or something?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

You guys don't really need to convince me - obviously since I checked, we're on the same page. And my thoughts on the turn are probably more of a live read thing than one we can accurately evaluate here - this guy loves pushing people around, so his range for checkraising the turn includes a number of hands that I would be OK getting my money in against - and a few that I have crushed.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

No worries. Keep posting btw. Your hands are among the most interesting b/c of the "live" dynamic.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
Me too, with the plan of folding to a three-bet, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.